Welcome to Foreign Policy‘s Southeast Asia Brief.
Highlights this week: Cambodia and Thailand agree to settle their maritime disputeface Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra he receives royally pardon, the central government of Malaysia he is feeling the heat from two early state electionsand Singapore bursts into vapes.
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Cambodia-Thailand Arbitration Masks Dangerous
Six months after the fighting ended between Cambodia and Thailand, their relationship is still uneasy.
On June 5, Thailand he said will join the United Nations arbitration process launched by Cambodia to resolve the maritime border dispute between the two countries. At the same time, however, Thailand announced that bilateral efforts to resolve its disputed land border with Cambodia would be suspended. Peace talks on the land border appear to have stalled, and minor skirmishes have taken place along the border. A third round of fighting seems unlikely—but certainly not impossible.
The ceasefire is still in place, but recently in May, Thailand the suspect Cambodian soldiers to open fire on the border. Cambodia has the suspect Thailand to occupy areas that previously agreed to be the territory of Cambodia. Thailand has set a border it is closed despite the economic costs. Now Thailand has an excuse to abandon the border peace The talks have been slow-moving for months. Association of Southeast Asian Nations experiments keeping Thailand and Cambodia moving towards a peace agreement seems to be collapsing. And without change, the border conflict will remain a preserved conflict, not resolved.
Meanwhile, what about the maritime border dispute that is now facing arbitration?
The process is now was launched is a mandatory reconciliation clause of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). At stake is a body of water with $300 billion worth of energy resources beneath it, claimed by Cambodia and Thailand.
The trigger for Cambodia to launch this process was Thailand breaking the 2001 agreement to announce its intention to agree on a system to jointly develop any valuable resources in the area. The procedure has only been used once before—also in Southeast Asia, to govern the border between Australia and Timor-Leste in 2016.
Thailand has so far tried to avoid international arbitration, feeling that bilateral negotiations are in its favor. It has now said it will participate in the process, although it is clearly not happy about it.
“I told my Cambodian colleagues, ‘Why don’t we give the talks a chance? Six months or so,'” Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow told them. Reuters.
Thailand also has he said rejects the discussion of sharing resources along the sea border in reconciliation. But shared resources are an important issue.
So, what does Thailand hold?
I have an idea here. First, by participating, it can hope to assert some influence over the process—most obviously by trying to resolve the issue of resources. Second, Southeast Asia as a region places great emphasis on the importance of international law. Phuangketkeow is a diplomat by profession, and not cooperating with international law can be considered very bad. Finally, even if Thailand feels that reconciliation is going against its interests, this should not cost anything. As the text of the UNCLOS annex on mandatory reconciliation clearly states“The report of the commission, including its conclusions or recommendations, shall not be binding on the parties.”
Thaksin was pardoned. On June 3, Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister of Thailand, received the royal forgiveness for corruption and conflict of interest.
Released on parole last month, Shinawatra will now do so return to Dubai, the city where he spent 15 years as a political exile. Many will take this as a tacit admission of defeat by the billionaire who for decades divided Thai politics.
Elected in 2001, Shinawatra to be ruled Thai politics until he was overthrown by a revolution in 2006. He only returned to his country in 2023.
Condemned to eight years in prison shortly after his return, this year was changed to one year, which he spent mostly in a dormitory at the Bangkok General Police Hospital. However, after the government controlled by his daughter fell last year, the court it prevailed the sentence had not been properly passed and he was ordered to be imprisoned.
Following the February elections, the power of Shinawatra and his dynasty has declined significantly. His party is now junior union a partner in a government led by a conservative politician who made a deep to interfere in the former areas of Shinawatra loyalists.
During the State elections. Malaysia faces two early state elections that could be stacked more pressure about the central government, which has hinted at an early general election.
Johorone of Malaysia’s key economic hubs, must hold elections by July 31, after dissolving its state parliament on June 1. The move was launched by the United Malays National Union (UMNO), which governs the state but is a minority partner in the national coalition.
In Negeri Sembilansmall state, elections must be held by August 4, with the state parliament dissolved on June 5. The election here was prompted by Pakatan Harapan (PH), which runs the state and is the main partner in the federal government, in response to UMNO calling the Johor election. It is also bound in arcane constitution struggle on the attempt to remove the sultan of the state.
Voting is gossip match between federal partners PH and UMNO. With PH looking weak, UMNO has decided the time to strike is now. A victory at the state level could strengthen his hand and return him to the top of Malaysian politics.
To add to the confusion, the opposition coalition, Perikatan Nasional, has division. In some seats we can expect to see up to four candidates running.
An earthquake hit Mindanao. A 7.8 magnitude earthquake he hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao on the morning of June 8. Initial reports indicate that at least 35 people were killed, while more than 200 were injured in the disaster.
Fourteen of the injured were is reported the result of landslides that buried people in their houses under the mountain in the municipality of Glan. Tsunami warnings were also issued provided. However, thankfully the waves caused only minor damage in a few areas.
The Philippines has motivated military units to carry out disaster relief operations. Classes at all levels have also been suspension in areas affected by disasters. This earthquake occurred just eight months after the Philippines to suffer its worst earthquake in 12 years, which killed at least 79 people on the island of Cebu.
How responses are handled will be closely monitored. The view that the government he missed his answer with the big floods last year and the corruption scandal could shake the government.
Most Read FP This Week
Focus: Singapore’s War on Vapes
“What if I told you the evil that takes our children does not hide under the bed?” sound the narrator as eerie music plays and a young man walks painfully through a dark corridor. What you are seeing is not an advertisement for a horror movie but part of Singapore’s campaign against vapes. Weed has been illegal in the country since 2018. And in March, the government made it tougher the law against them.
The punishment, in typical Singapore fashion, is very severe. Consumers can be fined up to $7,800. Dealers can be fined more than $155,000 and jailed for up to six years. And people who bring them into the country can be fined up to $233,000 and face up to nine years in prison. In 2025, the court even has been sent a 15-year-old boy was repeatedly arrested and vaped to “boys’ house” – that is, juvenile detention and correctional center – for two years.
Why is Singapore so strongly opposed?
The original to ban in 2018 it was cautious. While some governments accepted it as a less harmful cigarette, Singapore said it wanted to wait while it weighed the evidence on long-term health effects.
Since then, his position has been difficult. Vapes can lure young people into smoking, the government has said. And it also carries another hidden risk, it says. A cigarette can be smoked and finished, the argument goes. A vape can be smoked almost endlessly—and is often full of nicotine.
This may be true, but there is a sound of good old-fashioned morality anxietytoo. Attack of K-pods, which are vapes laced and illegal drugs, have been a big part of the official anti-vape push.
