In disputes between countries, battles are often fought to improve bargaining positions. Is the US now in a better position to get what it wants from Iran in negotiations—or worse?
The system of the plan which Trump has explained– the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the end of US sanctions against Iran, and the end of military attacks – are themselves ambiguous, and many important issues, such as the scope and extent of any economic relief for Iran, the state of Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the future of Iran’s nuclear program, remain unresolved. Because of this uncertainty, even if the shaky peace lasts, the US and Iran will be constantly debating details and next steps. Unfortunately, the US-Israeli war on Iran may have made the US less able to get a deal from Tehran anyway great cost of war.
In disputes between countries, battles are often fought to improve bargaining positions. Is the US now in a better position to get what it wants from Iran in negotiations—or worse?
The system of the plan which Trump has explained– the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the end of US sanctions against Iran, and the end of military attacks – are themselves ambiguous, and many important issues, such as the scope and extent of any economic relief for Iran, the state of Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the future of Iran’s nuclear program, remain unresolved. Because of this uncertainty, even if the shaky peace lasts, the US and Iran will be constantly debating details and next steps. Unfortunately, the US-Israeli war on Iran may have made the US less able to get a deal from Tehran anyway great cost of war.
Although the war aims of the United States were confused from the start of the campaign on February 28, the statements of the president and the main leaders explained the main goals, such as change of governmentand more commonincluding rolling back Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and curtailing it support for the regional agency such as Hezbollah. Even if only the most common goals are considered, the United States is considered in a weak position than it was before the conflict began.
To be clear, the US and Israel hit Iran hard. The war began with a series of aerial attacks that destroyed it killing hundreds Iran’s top leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and intelligence officers. Iran’s nuclear program, already set back after the US-Israel strike in 2025, it was struck again, and the country’s pathetic fleet was largely wiped out. America and Israel too destroyed about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal, less than previously claimed but still a significant percentage.
Economic, war and US sanctions it further destroyed Iran already weak economy-Iranian leaders are publicly dismissing this as an alleged grudge against the opposition, but their repeated demands for economic relief as part of any deal suggest otherwise. Before the war, Israel had already destroyed Hamas in Gaza and destroyed Hezbollah in Lebanonand this year’s attack by Israel against Hezbollah has reduced its strength, and Israel now to occupy a buffer zone in Lebanon.
Iran, however, not only survived this campaign but also retreated significantly. Its rockets, missiles, and drones hit oil and other infrastructure in the area US Persian Gulf allies, destroying American planesand hit American bases. Hezbollah continue the attack In northern Israel despite Israeli air and air operations against the group. Moreover, Iran was successful significantly closing the Strait of Hormuzpreventing the free flow of oil, gas, and other products, which has led to a rise in prices and discomfort around the world.
As the US and Iran negotiate in the coming months, Tehran will be stronger. A major source is Iran’s ability to close the strait, which it demonstrated for the first time in this war. Despite many confrontations with Iran in the past, including the campaign between the United States and Israel in 2025, Tehran avoided closing the strait, seeing it as a last resort, because the move could unite the world against Iran even if it fails due to the military power of the United States. No results occurred. Despite a massive US and Israeli bombing campaign and then months of sporadic attacks, the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.
The United States also lost the foundation of one of its most important sources of leverage—its allies. The US decision not to consult with European or many other allies before starting a war, and afterwards Blame the US of the allies for not helping, caused some countries to stand down to the administration, and revealed a deep division over the war despite the allies relying more on oil and gas imports.
Within the Middle East, key partners such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar may have opened Iran’s finances as a way to prevent Iran’s escalation against the Gulf states. Some, such as the UAE, have moved closer to the US and Israel, but others the question credibility of Washington.
Even Israel and the United States are now divided. The Israelites gambled Trump Casinohoping to win it all, but they may have lost everything. For the United States, opening the strait is important, but Israel has many other concerns. Several senior Israeli officials have accused the latest deal, believing it does not resolve the more pressing issue of Iran’s nuclear and intermediate-range missile program, and likely fearing it could allow Hezbollah to rebuild Lebanon, among other grievances. (Many Israelis also want to despise Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu As Israel enters election seasonThe two close partners have now split.
Iran is also more likely to use this force than it was before the latest campaign began. Khamenei mixed up the aggressive words with caution when there was a confrontation with the United States. Iran’s new leaders he can feel confident: They have survived the US and Israeli attacks and the regime change campaign, they have remained on their feet, and even harmed their opponents.
The coming months will reveal whether the United States can turn a costly and controversial military campaign into a diplomatic success. Washington will need to restore the confidence of allies, strengthen deterrence, and impose meaningful sanctions on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Otherwise, Tehran will have more confidence that in future conflicts, it can divide the United States and its allies, control the damage of war, and impose costs on the United States and its allies.
This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage. Read more here.
