Call it the hornet’s nest of Hormuz. Since Iran closed the channel in early March, there have been so many conflicting announcements that no one knew whether trying to bypass the critical route was wise or foolish. But now there is a peace treaty, which the President of the United States Donald Trump he said on Truth Social “will fully approve the free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, at the same time, approve the immediate lifting of the US Naval blockade.”
The moment everyone has been waiting for has arrived. “Ships of the Earth, start your engines,” Trump wrote in the same post. Starting the ship’s engine is, alas, the easiest part (and the engines have been running all along). The question now is how to get all the trapped ships out of the Persian Gulf in a safe and orderly way—and what happens if some don’t make it.
Call it the hornet’s nest of Hormuz. Since Iran closed the channel in early March, there have been so many conflicting announcements that no one knew whether trying to bypass the critical route was wise or foolish. But now there is a peace treaty, which the President of the United States Donald Trump he said on Truth Social “will fully approve the free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, at the same time, approve the immediate lifting of the US Naval blockade.”
The moment everyone has been waiting for has arrived. “Ships of the Earth, start your engines,” Trump wrote in the same post. Starting the ship’s engine is, alas, the easiest part (and the engines have been running all along). The question now is how to get all the trapped ships out of the Persian Gulf in a safe and orderly way—and what happens if some don’t make it.
According to Trump’s announcement, ships should immediately begin passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as they did until the war began. Mariners will be safe, and the world’s businesses and consumers will be relieved of high oil prices and concerns of shortages—”Let the oil flow!”
Not so fast. Although Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf digitally. signature agreement on June 15, the official signing ceremony will not be held until June 19. Until then, ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz will do so amid legal fog.
A few hours after the plan was announced, some ships moved on. “The ships are starting to move,” Trump has been published. “They are going along the Southern ‘Highway’, which is completely safe, secure, and clean,” he wrote, referring to the shipping lane in Oman’s territorial waters.
But ship-tracking websites showed only a regular procession with a few tankers. Many others were waiting idly for the ceasefire agreement to be officially signed. Until then, many questions remain, including whether the June 19 signing will open the way.
After arriving in France for the G-7 meeting, Trump he announced that the channel “will be completely clear” on Friday, but Iran’s Mehr news agency information that under the 14-point plan agreed by the US and Iran, Hormuz will be reopened not on June 19 but “within 30 days, under Iran’s plans.” Although some ships have sailed safely in recent times, such is the uncertainty that their success does not guarantee similar fortunes for other ships.
Then there is the risk of another explosion. The United States, Iran and Pakistan have said that the peace agreement includes the cessation of violence in Lebanon, while Israel has said that its forces will remain there. On June 16, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi he said that Iran would consider any Israeli military attack on Lebanon and its continued occupation a “violation of the MOU.”
If the US-Iranian ceasefire holds and many ships want to leave, then the first order of business is the order in which they should do so. Since the ceasefire is only for 60 days, there is likely to be intense competition for positions. “Commercial pressure can also influence decisions,” said Svein Ringbakken, managing director of maritime war insurer DNK. “Early oil, gas, and (petroleum) products present the opportunity for high profits. Fertilizer is valuable if released before the growing season but can lose value after that window closes.”
Who is responsible for deciding the order of the sea march? No one knows.
“Iran says it’s theirs, while the US says everyone is free to leave,” said Joshua Hutchinson, chief commercial officer at maritime security firm Ambrey. In fact, some approx 600 containers those stuck in the Gulf may not succeed in 60 days, and may face a much longer and more painful wait if a cease-fire is not followed by a permanent peace agreement.
Then there is the question of which route to take, as the traffic separation scheme managed by Iran and Oman stopped working when the war broke out. Since then, the few ships that have passed have used the northern route along the coast of Iran or the southern route along the coast of Oman. Two systems have turned a two-lane road into a four-lane road.
“I believe the southern route so far protected by the Americans will be popular, but it is difficult to operate many ships through both routes,” Ringbakken said. “This route can only take about 10 percent of the normal traffic volume at the narrow gate.”
Some ships, especially ships linked to Iran’s friendly nations and ships carrying Iranian oil, will go through the northern route, which is now managed by the new Iranian Gulf Coast Authority. But, Ringbakken noted, “that is not an option for Western tons and today’s government of sanctions.”
That’s because Western sanctions prevent payments to Iranian authorities. Iran’s Fars news agency information on June 15 that under the terms of the ceasefire agreement, Tehran would be able to charging fees for ships passing through Iranian watersand the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Esmail Baghaei, he told it media that “fees will be charged in lieu of services provided.” That suggests the payments are allowed under the ceasefire agreement despite being banned under international sanctions. (Meanwhile Trump, he told it of New York Times that Hormuz will be “absolutely free.”)
Any shipping-minded ship owner must also be concerned about mines. It is not clear whether Iran knows the location of the mines it has placed in that area of the sea and whether it has the equipment to remove them quickly.
“Unless the Iranians communicate where the mines are, if they can, and some of the routes are cleared, there will be a situation where risk-averse operators will dominate early transport,” Ringbakken said. “Others will join as soon as it is proven safe.”
Indeed, the return to normalcy in Hormuz does not only involve the ships that were caught leaving without restrictions: Traffic in the Gulf must start again. If hostilities near Hormuz seem likely, shipowners will be reluctant to send ships to the Gulf.
And then there is the issue of “service fees.” In order for ships with ties to the West to pay such fees, the corresponding sanctions against Iran would have to be lifted. That would be a very ironic outcome of this war.
