The whip is scary.
President Trump enjoyed every bomb dropped on Iran, every naval blockade, and every joint US-Israeli operation. Before that, he spent years preaching a policy of “maximum pressure” sanctions against the Islamic Republic. And before that, he harshly disparaged the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iran nuclear deal reached by Barack Obama, from which Trump withdrew the United States in 2018.
And now? With the misguided war raging, with global economic chaos spreading, with Iran being given maximum leverage by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in one fell swoop, Trump has raised every pillar of his still-dangerous Iran approach.
Let’s count the way.
Nuclear: A primary goal of war was to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program could never produce nuclear weapons. The Israeli-American strikes in June 2025 furthered that goal by destroying key nuclear facilities and burying Iran’s enriched uranium. put back program to a large extent.
But little had changed in the nuclear program when this war was launched last February, and little has changed since then. Now, instead of the repeated pinky promise that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon, Trump has agreed delay the conversation on the key goals of eliminating Iran’s enriched uranium and banning further enrichment, and the verification measures needed to ensure that those commitments are kept. This conversation is being put into a second phase that may never arrive or end.
Restrictions: Trump has long advocated high-pressure sanctions, beating his chest during the war about cost to Iran of the US naval blockade.
But now we will pay by reopening the Strait of Hormuz – simply, better, restoring pre-war conditions – to approve the release of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian foreign assets and the removal of sanctions to allow the export of Iranian oil. More benefits are in store for the government, in the form of fees paid by ships passing through the strait and surprisingly large. 300 billion dollar construction fund. (The latter, allegedly sponsored by the Gulf states, recalls former Secretary of State John Kerry’s worst post-JCPOA diplomacy, when he wanted dance up investment in the corrupt economy of a government that is still the enemy.)
Without a change in the state’s behavior or ideological outlook, it is rewarded with a shift from high pressure to a higher state. There is no reason to think that the money will go to schools and hospitals or provide any benefit to the Iranian people that the government is still suppressing. Instead, it will surely fund more missiles, drones, and support for domestic and foreign terrorists — threats that the memorandum of understanding is silent on.
Lebanon and Hezbollah: The war, however flawed, represented the pinnacle of US-Israeli military cooperation, and was unprecedented. joint activities and many praises and Trump in cooperation. Trump appeared to recognize Iran’s real threats to Israel, particularly from its network of terrorist allies.
But Israelis are alarmed by the speed of Trump’s change. Israeli officials were not included in the MOU negotiations, and they were not even given a chance review the text. At the same time, when the interests of the United States and Israel differed, Trump swear words in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and agreed to Iran’s demands impose restrictions on Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon—even as the militants continue to attack communities in northern Israel—as part of a broader ceasefire.
Administration: Trump has also long correctly identified the Iranian regime as dangerous and uniquely evil, with the blood of many Americans, Israelis, Arabs and its citizens on its hands. The beheading strike on Israel facilitated by Trump on the opening day of the war provided a clear indication of that understanding. There was no need for anyone to approve this war—I opposed it—to realize the necessity of carrying on and weakening the mullahs’ regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps until the time when the people of Iran could overthrow it.
But quickly, Trump and his wonderful wife untrustworthy The vice president has discovered the balance, tact, and, dare I say it, decency of what is, if anything, the product of a harder line of Iranian leaders. Many countries in the region, and recently in Europe, are seeing which way the wind is blowing and are moving to improve their relations with Iran. Government leaders must be concerned about their newfound international legitimacy and lack of knowledge.
For those inside and outside the country whose necks are craning and their heads are spinning, I have to ask an obvious but unpleasant question: What did you expect?
This debate, at the end of the day, is typical Donald Trump.
In many ways, we’re seeing Trump’s key qualities emerge on a national security issue of the highest order.
First, he is absolutely assured that he can do anything, that he can make any truth be, despite all evidence and knowledge to the contrary. Lured by the overnight success of ousting President Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela, he convinced himself that he could bring about the swift fall of the Iranian regime. His psychiatrists and Cabinet officers be advised otherwise. However, he pressed forward.
Second, he increased his self-delusion through his childish belief in the invincibility of American military power. The name of the testosterone-infused operation—Epic Fury—and a daily video feed of the buildings going to boom reinforce his deception. The American soldiers are fearless and highly professional, and they performed their assigned tasks with precision and efficiency, undermining Iran’s various capabilities. But Trump was unable to align those activities with achievable strategic goals. His mind doesn’t work that way.
Third, when the going got tough, Trump started yelling. One day he threatened wipe out the civilization of Iran, the next (and the next and the next) he he promised that the deal was just around the corner. Never a deep man (in policy, anyway; he it goes deep on architectural decoration), he he admitted tired of the war. And as his business ventures headed for bankruptcy, with the crossroad in the rearview mirror, he grabbed any exit, paying the price with American loyalty, alliances, and influence.
Fourth, he was attacked and flattered, especially from powerful people. What? remember his fruitless exchange of love letters with Kim Jong Un? They did not bring any success in nuclear diplomacy with North Korea. Somehow, without even an 80th birthday card from Iran, Trump flattered himself into believing that he was a capable leader. to identifyand promote, a new spirit of cooperation coming from the “sane” and “non-extremist” leaders now in charge of Tehran.
Fifth, as usual, Trump is out for Trump. He stumbled into a war that Americans overwhelmingly opposed, and their opposition grew as they felt it in their pockets at the pump and the grocery store. But it soon became clear, with the disaster of the midterm elections looming, that Trump would pull the plug. Again, stopping the war was important; giving out the store while he was doing so was self-preservation in fear.
Ultimately, Trump entered the war, and will withdraw, with full confidence in the slavish support of his political base. His faith will probably be justified. Note their most important discovery the importance of national security that we grab Greenland? (Wait for that: Cuba is next.) The triumphant Trump frenzy will soon turn to oohs and aahs applauding the diplomatic Donald. A few lone and loyal critics of the JCPOA—the flawed but workable deal that actually sets back Iran’s nuclear program—will resist the urge to bind themselves in the dark, and instead acknowledge that the Trump deal makes the JCPOA look like a compromise.
Of course, Trump’s apparent aging has also played a role. As with all of us, time exacerbates his main personality traits: selfishness, vanity, self-deception, impatience, fear under pressure.
And so here we are. A war that should not have been fought. An enemy that has been badly beaten but remains an enemy and is now reaping an unexpected strategic success. American credibility in tatters and its military preparedness affected. Union and cooperation under stress. The global economy is in turmoil, causing financial pain for American citizens that will last even if oil prices fall. A good and avoidable mess all around.
Well, what did anyone expect?
