Welcome again Foreign Policy‘s Situation Report, where John is still recovering from his trip to Kansas City to watch Argentina play Algeria–which involved walking down the highway and being interviewed by local news about that. It was almost as boring as getting tickets to the game, which you may have read about in his essay last week. (He witnessed Lionel Messi’s hat trick, however, he didn’t that crazy.)
Okay, here’s what’s available for today: The Palace sends his number 2 officer to sell the Iran deal, Ukraine makes black rain fall Moscowand Pentagon returns a fighter command by its former name.
US Vice President JD Vance has become the face of the US-Iran interim peace deal for the Trump administration, and is set to be Washington’s main negotiator in the upcoming nuclear talks. In a press conference on ThursdayVance wanted to answer some of the big questions around memorandum of understanding (MOU) and what comes next.
Vance portrayed the MOU as a “win-win” for the United States, pushing back doubters who see it as compliance with Tehran and a weaker deal than the Obama-era nuclear deal (known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) that US President Donald Trump pulled out of in 2018.
The MOU offers significant financial benefits to Iran, opening the door to faster oil sales and some sanctions relief and ultimately financing for reconstruction. But Vance said that much of this depends on Iran complying with the agreement and changing its behavior. “If they don’t perform … they don’t get any business benefit,” Vance said.
Still, this is unlikely to please critics of the plan, including the Israeli government and some Republicans on Capitol Hill, who feel that the Trump administration has made too many concessions to Tehran. Here’s a look at some of the more controversial aspects of the deal and what Vance had to say about them.
The Lebanon problem. Iran insisted on the inclusion of Lebanon in any peace deal and finally got its wish. The MOU declares “an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” But these are just words on the page as things are, as Israel and Hezbollah are not parties to the agreement and have continued to shoot each other this week.
This situation poses a great challenge in the peace process. As recently as Tuesday, Iran threatened Israel with retaliation over attacks against Hezbollah.
Asked about Lebanon on Thursday, Vance said the process is about “regional peace” and that the Trump administration expects that “Hezbollah will not be firing missiles and drones at the Israelis” and that “the Israelis will not be going to Lebanon.”
Vance said that this is a situation that “we will have to manage” through the diplomatic process, but the United States has its work cut out for it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday vowed to keep troops in southern Lebanon “as long as Israel’s security needs require it.”
In a sign of the White House’s growing impatience with Israel over this, Vance warned Israeli officials against criticizing the deal. “If I were in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not attack the only powerful ally that I have left anywhere in the world,” he said.
Iranian missiles. Since the start of the war, the Trump administration has repeatedly mentioned it destroy Iran’s missile program as the main goal. The MOU, however, does not address Iran’s missiles.
Trump, Vance, and even some of their Republican allies on Capitol Hill are now saying that Iran can keep some of its missiles, saying it has the right to defend itself. “You can’t tell a country, whether it’s Israel or Iran, it’s not allowed to defend itself,” Vance said Thursday. This marks a sharp break from years of GOP rhetoric about the threat posed by Iran’s missiles. Indeed, the Republican party’s biggest criticism of the JCPOA is that it did not deal with Iran’s ballistic missile program.
But Vance also said that as part of the final agreement, the United States expects that Iran will not be able to develop the type of missiles that can “threaten the entire world.”
Nuclear verification. The MOU states that Iran “reaffirms that it will not acquire or develop nuclear weapons” and sets the stage for further negotiations over the next 60 days on matters such as uranium enrichment to ensure this. But there is no guarantee that a final agreement will be reached. And even if a broad agreement were to be reached, it would not eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities. This means that there will need to be authentication mechanisms in place, and there are fair questions to ask about what that might look like.
Vance said earlier this week that international inspectors will “absolutely“Return to Iran as part of the agreement and that the International Atomic Energy Agency will cooperate with the United States to destroy Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.” The MOU states that the “minimum means” of accomplishing this “shall be under the supervision of the IAEA.”
But remember that it took years, not months, to negotiate the detailed verification mechanisms in the JCPOA. Vance now has to do the same in just 60 days.
Bill Pulte is expected to take over as acting US intelligence director on Friday, after Trump abruptly canceled a Senate confirmation hearing for his longtime nominee, Jay Clayton, on Wednesday. Clayton currently serves as the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York. Trump he said on Community Truth that his nomination would not move forward until Clayton’s replacement, Jamie McDonald, is confirmed as U.S. attorney.
One victim of this drama has been the renewal of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA)—a law that gave US agencies sweeping powers to spy on foreign nationals. Senate Democrats opposed to Pulte refused to vote on FISA until Clayton was confirmed, and Trump instead chose to let the spying authority expire while also threatening to freeze it further unless Congress made major changes to the election process.
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Moscow bombed. Ukraine hit the Russian capital on Thursday and one of its largest drone strikes since the start of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, burning down an oil refinery that reportedly “black rain” fall over the city.
“If Ukraine burns, your Moscow will also burn,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, expressing hope that the attacks would persuade Russia to negotiate. “It’s time to end the aggression, time to end this war.”
AI concerns. Besides Iran, intelligence was a big talking point at the G-7 summit in Évian, France, this week—especially the sudden decision by the United States to bar any foreign nationals from using tech giant Anthropic’s latest artificial intelligence model.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei addressed the G-7 leaders on Wednesday along with rival executives Sam Altman of OpenAI and Demis Hassabis of Google DeepMind, and all that. is reported encourage politicians in the room to collaborate on setting AI safety standards. EU officials are also due to meet with Anthropic in San Francisco on Thursday, a European Commission spokesman said confirmed.
You can read more about the basic fight between Anthropic and the Trump administration Rishi’s latest episode.
Hegseth Roulette. The US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, has continued to shake up the posture of the US military in the world – both verbally and literally. Hegseth he announced on Thursday that the Defense Ministry will review its troops and bases in Europe over the next six months “to ensure that NATO moves rapidly and irreversibly towards a leading Europe” – a project he called “NATO 3.0.”
The Pentagon also continued its renaming efforts under Hegseth, restoring the old name of its Hawaiian fighter command to troops in the Asia Pacific region. It will now be known as the Pacific Command (the name under which it was established in 1947) instead of the Indo-Pacific Command (the name Trump changed during his first term in 2018).
“Reinstating USPACOM’s legacy name honors the command’s historic roots, and fosters a sense of pride and shared spirit among all serving in the Pacific,” the Pentagon said. he saidadding that the mission of the command and the area of responsibility will remain unchanged. The move signals Trump’s desire to reduce competition with China and cooperation with India, Derek Grossman he argues in Foreign Policy.
Statues of former US President Barack Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama are seen outside the Barack Obama Presidential Center before a dedication ceremony at John Lewis Plaza in Chicago on June 18.Scott Olson/Getty Images
Tuesday, June 23: 10th anniversary of the UK’s Brexit referendum.
Thursday, June 25: Poland is organizing a conference on the restoration of Ukraine.
“What a bad deal we made with Iran. We get nothing (except to laugh at our stupidity). They get everything, including delays and lots of money!”
– Trump, in 2013referring to the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran signed by Obama.
