The US and Iran have a new peace agreement – and many unanswered questions about Iran’s nuclear program, the future of the Strait of Hormuz, and whether Israel’s war in Lebanon could still complicate matters.
But one thing is clear: The war has transformed Iran and restored the balance of power in the Middle East.
“Instead of breaking Iran, the turmoil of the war has changed it in unexpected ways,” Iran experts Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr. he wrote recently for the next issue of Foreign Affairs. “To survive and establish new strategic advantages, the Islamic Republic had to change and innovate, change the way it fought wars, ran the government and managed society.”
Bajoghli, a professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, recently joined. Today, It’s Explained host Sean Rameswaram to explain how the war has restored Iran’s ability to dominate at home and shifted its power internationally — and how it has weakened the United States’ position in the region.
The following is part of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s a lot more in the full podcast, so take a listen Today, It’s Explained wherever you find podcasts, incl Apple Podcasts, Pandoraand Spotify.
Let’s talk about how this war was sold to the American public and what the original goals were. It was supposed to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and deliver some sort of death blow to the Islamic Republic. What did we get instead?
Part of the problem is that we never knew what this war was about.
There were a few days when this war was close, “Let us bring freedom to the people of Iran.” Then there were a few days when this war was almost, you know, the death blow for the Islamic Republic. And then there was also, you know, this is going to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, even though in June (2025) we thought we eliminated their nuclear weapons program.
It was not entirely clear what this was really about. We had massive beheadings that took place across Iran in the first days of this war that took the generation of the founder of the revolution. We thought that the Islamic Republic was on its last legs, and all we had to do was push it a little further.
Now, in June 2026, three and a half months after this war began, we have a brand new and young generation leading Iran that is more courageous, that is not afraid of the United States. And then you have the Strait of Hormuz, which was not under this kind of control before. Now it is, and you have Iran again imposing its will and basically saying Israel needs to pull back from Lebanon.
These were conditions that Iran would not have been able to impose in February 2026. What we have from this war is a stronger and more entrenched political establishment that leans heavily on the (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and the Iranian military, which is much stronger and has now established itself as an important pillar of West Asia. That will create a fundamentally different Middle East going forward.
Tell us more about this new administration. I think everyone has heard, yes, the new ayatollah, even tougher than the previous ayatollah. Does that include this new generation that is leading Iran now, or is there more to it?
There is much more to it. First of all, one of the problems we’ve always had with Iran is we think of it as a dictatorship – as a country ruled by one man at the top. That was part of the reason why they thought they could kill Ali Khamenei and then the system would crumble under him.
You have a leader at the top, but you have many debates and discussions in the entire political system and in the entire Iranian society. It is a very dynamic system with a very dynamic community. What we have now is the son of the former leader, Moshtaba Khamenei, who is now in charge, but what he represents is the great generational change that has happened in Iran. We have a new generation that, first of all, grew up after the Iranian revolution was ready to happen. Their side was already in power. That brings a certain kind of confidence and swagger to him.
This generation fought with the US and Israel in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon. And by their calculations, they won in those movies. Therefore, they are also a generation that is not afraid to face the Americans and the Israelis. They saw for themselves on the battlefield how they were able to push back the US army, for example, from Iraq. So there is courage in this generation.
Their father’s generation came in the 60s and 70s. Yes, they were anti-imperialist, yes, they fought against the shah and had America involved in Iranian affairs, but there was still a level of respect for what American power meant, and psychologically a kind of inferiority complex. Now you’re dealing with a generation that doesn’t have that. That is fundamentally different.
What happened in Iran now you have Gen Xers and older millennials now running the show. This is one of the reasons they were able to win the propaganda game.
Are you talking like Lego AI videos?
Which was funny. Who are we kidding?
Which were really funny and still put them out, right? And they use trap songs and like rap songs, and you can tell it’s young.
I mean, if anyone spends enough time on the internet, this isn’t made up. This is a generation that grew up online. There is some kind of change that has happened that now Iran is led by people who are from the 21st century, whereas most of these other countries are still led by people who are basically created in the 20th century.
How does the fact that Iran is now being led by Gen Xers, millennials, and not bullies like it was before, or like our country is now, affect the new state of affairs in the country? What does that mean for how the country is governed internally?
This generation is not interested in continuing the revolution anymore, is it? The revolution happened, it’s a fact, and now they want to rule the government.
What this war has done is shown that there is a technological class in Iran that is of a new generation that has now come to the forefront that was able to carry out this war in a very effective way that was understood by the people and they could see what was happening. And you hear from the Iranians again and again that other than the bombings, we didn’t feel like we were at war. There was no shortage of anything. And so now what this new generation is trying to do is say we’re going to bring that technological expertise not just to our military affairs, but to running the country itself. And that’s the big question right now: Can they do it?
How has this new government changed the balance of power in the region?
The United States began to establish its security architecture in the Middle East, starting with the first Gulf War, where it began to establish its permanent military bases in the Arab Gulf regions.
The promise was: to bring the US military bases. We will guarantee your safety, and we will also bring you into the American fold. You will have great business opportunities; you will earn a ton of money.
What we see now is that the Gulf understands that having American bases is a liability because the United States started a war without consulting them. It could not protect any of these Gulf countries and their economies.
Iran is the size of Western Europe. I feel like we forget a lot in the US, but the truth is, Iran is a huge country geographically. It is a large country in terms of population, and therefore the Gulf countries need to find a way to live with Iran. That is no longer guaranteed through America’s failed big brother protection.
Going forward, first of all, it seems like the Arab Gulf countries have come to this realization – some faster than others – but basically, they are making payments to Iran now. They are looking for ways to live with them in the future, without Iran being isolated as it was in the past.
That’s a big difference. The Persian Gulf region has fundamentally changed. It will no longer be a place where Americans can do whatever they want. Now will be the place where Iran will reassert its dominance over the region.
Iran considers itself to have won this war. And because this generation is more confident, it’s going to be like, ‘We’re not going to budge. If that means your economy is going to get worse, well, you’ve been hurting our economy for 47 years. We’re going to play a game of chicken and see who blinks first.’ This is the new generation we are dealing with.
