Sylvie Andrews and her partner didn’t just lose the new home they helped build when the Eaton Fire ripped through Altadena, California, in January 2025. They lost a decade’s worth of dedication to putting roots in their hometown, and the community they’ve built. “We put a lot of blood, sweat, and tears into it,” Andrews said. “That’s what we lost in the fire.”
That fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed more than 16,000 structures and killing 31 people. But while Andrews and thousands of Angelenos were rushing to emigrate, others saw a financial opportunity. Using Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, they placed bets on the fire—how it would grow, how long it would last, and how much it would destroy.
Prediction markets are basically betting sites where people place bets on the outcome of events, including elections, sports, weather and more. Anything is fair game, from oil prices and the spread of infectious diseases to global events. Markets typically frame questions in a “yes” or “no” fashion, with the “contract” price varying between $0 and $1. A price of 50 cents on a “yes” contract means that the bettors collectively believe that the event has a 50 percent chance of happening. Market operators make money by charging fees on bets.
In January 2025, Polymarket was listed around 20 questions, created and the platform’s “marketing team,” related to the wildfires burning in Southern California. How How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday, three days after it burned Tuesday? Love Will the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday? Time Will the Palisades fire be 50 percent contained? Love Will the Palisades and Eaton fires be contained before February?
People used $1.2 million bet on these moves, according to for Aeon Magazine. “Wow,” Andrews said repeatedly when he learned the statistics. “My first impression is that it is morally repugnant,” he said. “The fact that someone would feel okay doing that amazes me.”
“Prediction markets are just the wild, wild West,” said Susan Sherman, who grew up in Pacific Palisades. He lost his childhood home in the Palisades Fire; his late parents had owned it since 1963, and now it was gone. He sold the vacant lot a few months ago. “I see (placing bets on fire) as very dirty and heartless.”
Like prediction markets boom and a new wildfire season begins, fire survivors and ethics experts say that gambling encourages and rewards ruthless thinking—and dangerous behavior.
One major factor in wildfire market forecasting is arson. “That’s what worries me,” Sherman said. In theory, betting can give someone a perverse incentive to light a fire or help them grow. Unlike other disasters, such as hurricanes, floods, or extreme heat, fires can be changed in minutes by just one person. “Systems tied to financial gain and wildfire outcomes can encourage misuse, including arson, and are inconsistent with our mission,” a US Forest Service spokeswoman said.
“Think about what a bad actor can do,” said Ann Skeet, senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University. “A market that can support that kind of activity, I think, is a dangerous market.” Firefighters or land managers with unique information about fire behavior or the agency’s firefighting plans may be tempted to bet on the fire, which could be considered insider trading.
