Welcome to Foreign Policy‘s South Asia Brief.
Highlights this week: Prime Minister of Bangladesh Tariq Rahman is making an important trip to China, tensions are rising as the Taliban say Pakistan attacks in Afghanistan killed civilians, and India sends junior officers to attend the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Bangladesh, China Welcome ‘New Era’ of Relations
Last week, Bangladesh Prime Minister Tariq Rahman he spent four days in China. The trip, which included a first stop in Malaysia, was his first overseas since coming to power in February.
At first glance, Rahman’s schedule may not seem like a big deal. China is Bangladesh’s main partner and donor, and relations between the two countries have been strong for more than a decade. But the trip was more than just another high-profile visit—it is likely to spell trouble for India, China’s rival and Bangladesh’s close traditional friend.
Dhaka and Beijing have called their relationship a strategic partnership since Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina he visited Beijing in July 2024, just before being ousted amid mass protests. But Rahman’s visit produced a joint statement announcing that strategic cooperation will be promoted to “build a China-Bangladesh community with a shared future in the new era.”
According to line of agreement announced during the visit, this seems to mean that the cooperation is based on broad areas of cooperation. The countries agreed to cooperate in connectivity, port improvement projects, and water management. They discussed moving Chinese factories to Bangladesh to stimulate the weak private sector.
The two sides announced a 2+2 dialogue between their defense and foreign ministries, an initiative earmarked for deeper cooperation. One memorandum of understanding even mandates Bangladeshi schools to teach Mandarin—demonstrating China’s soft power play. Beijing pledged to support Dhaka’s accession to BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
All this is surprising, given the expectation that the Rahman government would seek rapprochement with India. Relations between Bangladesh and India have sunk since Hasina’s removal from power, but some leaders of the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) he indicated desire to get things back on track. A good relationship will make it easier to engage in important issues ranging from trade and connectivity to border security.
However, there are also understandable reasons for Rahman to make this historic visit to China so early in his term. Bangladesh’s economy—once a regional success story—is sputtering, and it could use Chinese capital in the long term. More broadly, Bangladesh has few deep and multilateral partnerships; China’s stature in the world makes it an important exception.
Finally, among the Bangladeshi public, there is power pro-China sentiment and strong feelings against India. Rahman’s visit provides a political boost to the fledgling government, while a trip to India at this time would carry significant political risks.
Rahman’s visit amounts to a strategic disappointment for India, which apparently quietly welcomed the BNP’s electoral victory. New Delhi sees the BNP as a better ally than its rival-turned-ally Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist party. India also has he indicated desire to forge ties with Rahman’s government, but the visit to China is a reminder of why that won’t be easy.
However, Rahman’s journey carries some risks for Dhaka. The new government has he announced “Bangladesh first” policy, is essentially a form of neutrality that involves pursuing diplomacy that promotes Bangladesh’s interests and avoids deferring to any country. But if Dhaka seems to be moving too close to Beijing, that undermines that policy.
The leaders of Bangladesh are right he called for intransigence since the early years of the country, despite Dhaka’s clear tilt towards New Delhi during the Hasina years. Today, Bangladesh has an opportunity to reassert this policy, if it can balance all its relations.
What we’re after
Fierce fighting on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The Afghanistan-Pakistan border saw its worst violence in months this week, as did Pakistan carried out air strikes Eastern Afghanistan against what it called terrorist targets.
The military operations followed an attack on security forces in Karachi, Pakistan, which Pakistan he insisted it was planned and carried out from Afghanistan by militants protected by the Taliban regime. The Taliban said civilians were killed in the attack by Pakistan-claims confirmed and the United Nations, which said at least 28 civilians had died.
This year, the border fighting between Afghanistan and Pakistan has at times escalated to the point of causing panic direct battle. Much has been said about the key dimensions of this conflict, from growing regional instability to the crumbling relationship between the Taliban and its former ally in Islamabad.
But this week’s attacks, particularly the civilian toll, point to something that is deeply troubling for the Afghan people. For nearly five years, despite living under the oppressive rule of the Taliban, Afghans have enjoyed relative peace for the first time in decades. The ongoing fighting threatens to tear the term apart.
Indian officials to attend Khamenei’s funeral. Indian media report that Syed Ata Hasnain, the governor of Bihar state, and Pabitra Margherita, the country’s foreign minister, will represent India at the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei this weekend. Iran invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but his office is shown that he will not be able to attend.
The decision to send two low-level officers to the funeral has caused a stir. But from the point of view of India’s foreign policy, it is understandable: India’s relations with Iran are not very warm, especially since it stopped the import of Iranian energy under the pressure of US sanctions.
India has also strengthened cooperation with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional rival, and significantly increased ties with Israel, Iran’s arch-enemy. Still, India’s seemingly dismissive attitude to Khamenei’s funeral is not good, given India’s aim to serve as the leader of the global south.
The situation underscores how New Delhi’s policy of strategic independence—which aims to balance relations with players across the board—does not always go according to plan or protect it from bad diplomatic timing.
The measles outbreak in Bangladesh is on the decline. Bangladesh has suffered the world’s worst measles outbreak this year, and on Monday, the country marked a turning point: The total number of suspected cases since mid-March rose. 100,000 ago. Dhaka is the most affected, and about half of this sum specified in the capital.
But this week, the United Nations information good news. First, the number of suspected cases is starting to decrease, albeit slowly. Second, vaccinations are starting to pick up—an important development, given that experts have identified delayed and uneven vaccination campaigns since the ouster of the Hasina government in 2024 as a major driver of the crisis.
According to the United Nations, the current campaign has vaccinated 18.4 million children, reaching the target of 18 million. In some Rohingya refugee camps, 94 percent of children have been vaccinated.
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Under the Radar
Students in Nepal have staged protests against their country’s education system in several cities in recent days. Theirs the main concern It’s what they describe as errors in high school exam results, though protest and medical students have also demanded academic reform and telephone for the minister of education to resign.
This is not a major protest, but it still puts Nepal’s new leaders in the hot seat. The government won elections in March, six months after protesters overthrew the previous government; promised to make major reforms and eliminate corruption. Dissatisfaction about education policy will test this commitment.
Moreover, there is much at stake: Nepal has major challenges of brain drain and unemployment, making successful education even more important for young people.
