Welcome again Foreign PolicyStatus Report. We are now 13 days into the Iran war, and Tehran is increasingly looking set on terms and tempo. We’ll look into that and more in this week’s edition.
Okay, here’s what’s available for today: The Iran was change to Strait of Hormuzoriginally Pentagon results recommending US responsibility for a bad school strikeand US military operations continue inside South America.
The Iran war is almost two weeks old and has entered a period of great uncertainty. The Trump administration conflicting reasons for war, moving targetsand mixed messages on a potential timeline have only added more confusion to the situation—leaving many wondering where this could all be going. But the answer is that there is no clear answer at the moment.
Still, there are broader trends that have emerged since the fighting began that provide a window into the challenges facing the United States and its allies—and help explain why it’s so hard to predict what will happen next.
Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz—the main shipping lane on Iran’s coast that separates the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman—has emerged as the biggest battleground in the conflict’s second week. Iran is using the channel as pressure, preventing almost all commercial ships from passing through and increasing world oil prices. “The method of closing the Strait of Hormuz must definitely continue,” Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said Thursday in his first speech. information to the public since taking power.
Many oil tankers in and around the waterway have is reported has been call and “projectiles,” and reports from CNN and Reuters quoting sources familiar with the issue say that Iran has started laying mines in distress. Trump and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have downplayed those concerns, however, with Trump saying Wednesday that his administration “didn’t think so” when asked if Iran had planted mines and Bessent to tell them Sky News on Thursday that “we know they are not in trouble” because some Iranian-flagged ships have crossed safely.
US Central Command he said on Thursday that it has destroyed more than 30 Iranian minesweepers, but experts say that countering the mines could be a challenge given that the US military. has been discontinued all of its mining fleet in the Middle East last September.
The threat of drones. But Iran has a “variety of capabilities” it can use against the channel including mines, Gregory Brew, an Iran expert and senior analyst at Eurasia Group, told SitRep.
For example, Iran can launch anti-ship ballistic missiles from the coast. Although that capability could be reduced by US and Israeli strikes, Brew emphasized that “we don’t know exactly how many missiles they have, and they haven’t had to use their anti-ship missiles yet because they’ve been firing long-range missiles at coastal areas instead of ships.”
But “the biggest danger is drones,” Brew said, which Iran has “in abundance” and are “easy to shoot.” The current U.S. military assessment is that the strait remains unsafe and “there needs to be more strikes against Iranian coastal areas to strengthen security before escorts and convoys can be assembled to move ships through the strait,” Brew said, which means the strategically important waterway “will be closed if this month doesn’t pass quickly.”
Missile mathematics. The Trump administration’s ability to accomplish its goals (such as they are) depends largely on the so-called missile inventory—whether the United States can end the war before it runs out of weapons and air defenses.
The US military may already be risking its posture in other parts of the world to keep the war effort going, and many report this week indicating that the US may move parts of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from South Korea to the Middle East. South Korea hosts one of the eight US THAAD batteries distributed around the world, with another in Guam and five in Texas. Iranian missiles is reported destroyed a THAAD battery in Jordan last week.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung he said On Tuesday that his government has “expressed opposition” to the removal of THAAD, but noted that the “indisputable fact” is that they cannot do anything about it. However, he denied that it would affect deterring North Korea—a message supported by the Pentagon. When asked for his opinion on the THAAD movement, a Defense Department official said, “For operational security reasons we do not comment on the movement of special military capabilities or assets,” but added that “US Forces Korea are still focused on maintaining a credible force posture on the Korean Peninsula.”
US President Donald Trump appointed Erika Kirk to a key advisory board of the US Air Force Academy. Her late husband, Charlie Kirk, a prominent right-wing activist who was shot and killed in Utah last year, was appointed to the board by Trump and sat on it until his death. The college’s website says the board “investigates ethics, discipline, curriculum, teaching, physical facilities, financial matters, academic practices and other issues related to the College that the Board decides to consider.”
Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth prevented some media photographers from attending Pentagon briefings after posting photos that its staff deemed “unpleasant,” Washington Post information.
The State Department too prepare permanently closing its consulate in Peshawar, Pakistan – its closest diplomatic post to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
The role of the United States in the school strike in Iran. The Pentagon’s preliminary investigation into the February 28 missile attack on an Iranian elementary school it shows that the US military was responsible New York Times it was reported this week, citing unnamed US officials and others familiar with the preliminary results. The strike, which Iran has said killed more than 175 people, mostly children is reported implemented on the basis of outdated targeting information.
Hegseth did not directly address the school shooting in his most recent episode press conference on Tuesday, but claimed that Iran was firing “missiles from schools and hospitals” and cited intelligence indicating that Iranian forces “were deploying rocket launchers into civilian neighborhoods near schools.”
More than 40 Democratic senators sent a letter to Hegseth on Wednesday demanding answers about the school attack, expressing “grave concern” and calling for the public release of any investigation findings.
Meanwhile, in the Western World. The United States has continued to carry out heavy attacks against alleged drug boats near South America even during the war with Iran. On Sunday, the US military he said it killed six people inside recent strike like thiswhich occurred in the eastern Pacific.
The campaign targeting what the Trump administration has described as “drug terrorists” began last September and was a prelude to raids that led to the arrest of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. But the Trump administration has not completely shifted its focus from the Western World at that time. Along with the ongoing attacks, the US military also recently launched a joint operation with the Ecuadorian military targeting organized crime groups in the country.
Accusations of the anthropic Pentagon. The US Department of Defense now also has a legal battle on its hands, after artificial intelligence company Anthropic filed a lawsuit on Monday against the Pentagon’s decision to declare it a supply chain risk, which would have prevented companies working with the military from using Anthropic’s AI models or software. Anthropic slammed the decision as “unprecedented and illegal” in its court filing.
“Seeking judicial review does not change our long-standing commitment to using AI to protect our national security, but this is an important step to protect our business, our customers and our partners,” a company spokesperson told SitRep. “We will continue to pursue every avenue toward a resolution, including negotiations with the government.”
Several high profile followers are already there publicly supported Anthropic in its fight against Hegseth and the Trump administration, with technology giant Microsoft filing a brief in support of the case, as did a group of employees from rival companies Google and OpenAI and a group of former military officials including former CIA Director Michael Hayden.
Smoke rises from a bombed building in Beirut, Lebanon, as Israel continues air and ground attacks against Hezbollah, March 11.Adri Salido/Getty Images
Monday, March 16: European Union energy ministers are scheduled to meet in Brussels.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomes Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney for a bilateral visit.
Wednesday, March 18: The International Maritime Organization convenes an extraordinary session on the situation in the Middle East.
Thursday, March 19: Trump welcomes Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to the White House.
11.3 billion dollars– the estimated price of the first week of the Iran war for the United States, according to Pentagon officials is reported he told the members of parliament.
“We won. The first hour, it was over. … We don’t want to leave early, do we? We have to finish the job.”
-Trump making conflicting statements about the Iran war at the time public meeting in Hebron, Kentucky, on Wednesday.
FBI agents are ready to train with Ultimate Fighting Championship fighters this weekend. FBI Director Kash Patel he said is “a great opportunity for our FBI agents to learn and train with some of the greatest athletes,” adding that it will enable the law enforcement agency “to be more prepared to protect the American people.”
