Surprisingly, President Trump and his aides were caught off guard when Iran, under air strikes from the United States and Israel, retaliated by targeting ships in the Persian Gulf and especially through the Strait of Hormuz. Military planners have argued for decades that the waterway—through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows—is at high risk of attack by Iran. But the Trump administration admitted in a brief briefing, CNN reported last night, that it did not impose conditions on the closure because officials. assumed that the move would hurt Iran more than the United States.
In its failure to anticipate Iran’s response, the administration ignored a trend that former Defense Secretary James Mattis, Trump’s first pick, was fond of saying: Once hostilities begin, “the enemy gets votes.” US leaders have largely underestimated the Iranian regime’s ability to survive, adapt and respond. Just two weeks after the battle that began during the presidential nomination, the United States seems uncertain about what to do next.
The campaign that Trump has launched in cooperation with Israel so far depends on superior air power and deep intelligence about which targets to hit. But Iran has many ways of endangering ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The country is a major producer of cheap drones—which Russia has used to harm Ukraine over the past four years. Iran also seems to be using it marine drones and, according to some reports, it may be laying mines in distress. Most of the systems used to deliver these weapons are small and easily transportable, so tracking them is not easy. Doing so requires constant air patrols, and even with those, some Iranian equipment will get through.
Deploying US naval vessels to escort ships from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz would help protect the flow of oil and other vital raw materials, but would also leave the escort vessels themselves vulnerable. The Trump administration — with good reason — seems afraid of that option. “It will happen soon, but it can’t happen now,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he told CNBC yesterday “We’re not ready.” Some military experts he suggested that the only way the United States can reopen trade through that critical channel is to send ground forces to Iran—a move that, polls say. suggestit would not be very popular with the American public.
When Trump went to war with Iran, he made the same assumption that Vladimir Putin had in invading Ukraine four years ago. Each believed that their nation’s superior weapons and military skills would suppress any resistance the target government might mount. In a video speech released shortly after U.S. and Israeli forces began bombing, Trump said of Iran, “This administration will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and power of the U.S. military.” He added that “there is no army on Earth” that was “even close in strength, power, or sophistication.” Iran, he was suggesting, was doomed.
Initially, the aerial campaign achieved everything Trump could have hoped for. The US and Israel quickly gained air superiority over Iran and now have the ability to strike almost any target they choose. They succeeded in killing most of Iran’s top leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. However, since then, the limits of Trump’s ability to control the situation have become more and more clear.
In arresting Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolás Maduro, two months ago and apparently agreeing to a coup for Vice President Delcy Rodríguez in the country, Trump pulled off his version of regime change — removing a rival leader without toppling the basic structure of a totalitarian government. He was satisfied, even happy, about what Rodríguez and his allies did: They quickly accepted American authority and kept at least the appearance of following the law.
On the contrary, the Iranian regime did not surrender, but fought, even when it was without a great leader for many days. Iranian drones and missiles have attacked US forces, particularly in Kuwait, forcing the US and its allies in the Persian Gulf region to reduce their stockpile of air defense weapons.
Meanwhile, the remaining members of the Iranian regime have continued to slander and insult the United States in public. Trump seemed to assume after Khamenei’s death that the next ruler of Iran would be someone he chooses. “We will have to choose that person together with Iran,” he said he told it Reuters. “We will have to choose that person.”
Iran’s top clerics ignored Trump’s demands and chose Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, a tough guy the US president had. previously considered “It is unacceptable to me.” In his first public statement as supreme leader, the younger Khamenei declared, “Certainly, the method of closing the Strait of Hormuz must continue.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said today that Iran’s new leader has been wounded, but whether that will hamper Tehran’s military operations is unclear.
Trump is now learning what Putin discovered in Ukraine: that many leaders who start wars with the assumption of a quick and certain victory underestimate the enemy. Some soldiers are very confident in their own ability to defeat any hostile army; others are drawn from societies that despise their enemies. Reducing the enemy’s ability to change is also a characteristic of radical leaders—many of whom choose advisers who tell them what they want to hear and suppress information that would make them unhappy.
In a briefing today, Hegseth disputed a CNN report about the administration’s failure to plan, calling it “fake news,” and it is implied that the impending purchase by a billionaire friend of Trump of the network would put an end to questionable news coverage in the future. “The sooner David Ellison takes over the network, the better,” Hegseth said. But the plain truth of the situation is clearly not in America’s interest. While US allies are suffering from rising global oil prices, Iran is transport more fuel than before the war began. Other producers, including Russia, which does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz, benefit greatly.
Things have gotten so bad that the Trump administration has been leaning away from headlines of victory to desperate warnings that, for exampleIranians “better not try anything good.” This week, the administration completely changed its position on releasing oil reserves from strategic stocks.
In a bit of a surprise, the United States has had to reach out to Ukraine for help defending itself against Iranian drones. The Trump administration has reduced US aid to Ukraine and has repeatedly appeared sympathetic to the views of Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Ukrainians they are working now along with the forces of the United States and some of the Gulf states, giving them training on how to use cheap Ukrainian equipment to shoot down cheap Iranian planes.
US forces will not lose the war and can still attack any individual Iranian target they want. But the US is struggling because Iran also got votes. And with that vote, it raises strategic questions that the Trump administration clearly did not anticipate and did not prepare for.
*Sources: Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto / Getty; AFP/Getty; AP; Getty
