This story was originally published by Grist and is reproduced here as part of Weather Desk cooperation.
Until the end of February, a steady stream of ships shipping around the world would pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. A narrow passage between Oman and Iran, the waterway serves as a natural maritime link between the Persian Gulf and the world economy. That all changed on March 2, when, after days of military strikes led by the United States and Israel, Iran effectively closed problem for the first time in history and he warned that any passing ship would be shot at. Since then, vessels moving through the channel have been attacked and burnedand hundreds of oil tankers remain stuck. At least 1,800 people have been killed in the war including the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior government officials.
The Persian Gulf is the main link of the planet’s oil and gas production; typically, about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows through the channel. Now, when it remains in a difficult situation, oil and gas prices have risenand many experts warn an energy crisis is imminent. Cafes all over India are reduce activity and close warning while there is a shortage of oil from the sea barrier, while the price of cooking gas is spiking in Sri Lanka.
Another world crisis caused by the war in Iran may also be on the horizon. That is because the production of oil and gas in the area has made it one of the leading countries in the world for selling nitrogen fertilizer, which is important for the global food system. To produce the chemicals used to grow most of the planet’s crops, natural gas is broken down to produce hydrogen, which is combined with nitrogen to make ammonia, and then mixed with carbon dioxide to make urea. All said, about a third of the international trade in nitrogen fertilizers passes through the Strait of Hormuzwhile almost half of the world’s sulphur, important in producing phosphate fertilizers, also travels through the belt.
Water is a lifeline for food, too. Palm oil exports from Southeast Asia are facing major potential disruptions. Grain shipments to Gulf countries those who depend on importing rice and wheat are stuck.
“An alarming amount of food, or input into modern agriculture, goes through this very small pathway,” said Ginni Braich, a data scientist who studies food insecurity at the University of Colorado Boulder’s Better Planet Lab. He estimates that thinness is in the top 20 percent of all the transportation corridors in the world according to the amount of food passing through it. The sudden and cascading effects of the trade suspension through the waterway, according to Braich, “really emphasize how everything is connected, and how fragile it is … any small amount of disruption can have large aftershocks that are felt around the world.”
The timing, Braich said, could not be worse, as spring planting in the northern hemisphere – the biggest season for crop farmers – is approaching. “So, basically, the ships that were leaving the Middle East today would be arriving in mid-April,” he said. “Now, the fact that nothing is leaving means that there will be a big hole in the fertilizer market.”
If the war continues, experts warn that a drop in supply and an increase in cargo insurance premiums and freight rates may increase prices for everyone in the supply chain. Unlike oil, there is no strategic reserve of nitrogen-based fertilizers, so there is no storage is the same help prevent seizures. When the United States produces some of its own fertilizerDomestic producers can not quickly replace millions of tons of fertilizer materials. Other countries that rely heavily on imports of fertilizers from the Middle East, such as India, will be severely affected by the suspension of traffic on the channel. China, Indonesia, Morocco, and several sub-Saharan African nations are also expected affected by the international gridlock of sulfur exports flows from the Gulf.
Additionally, Braich warned, any long-term increases in shipping and inventory costs “will be felt by consumers.”
For some, the impact is already here. Prices of important fertilizer products they are up because of the war and is expected to squeeze the profits of farmers – which can lead to farmers use of ration fertilizersreduce yields, or even move away from planting crops that require inputs. US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins told reporters in Atlanta, Georgia, on Tuesday that the Trump administration is “looking at every possible option” to address the “rising” fertilizer costs for American farmers “based on actions on the other side of the world.”
About 4 billion people on the planet eat food grown with synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. About half of the world’s population, in other words, is alive because of these chemicals being converted into plant nutrients, said Lorenzo Rosa, who researches sustainable energy, water, and food systems at the Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford University.
Of course, the fact that natural gas is the key to mass production of synthetic fertilizers carries its own negative climate impacts. Together, the production and application of synthetic fertilizers on farms and ranches contribute to more than 2 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions – roughly the same as CO2 emissions from the global atmosphere. There is limited production alternatives to this processRosa said: Nitrogen can be recovered from waste, and natural gas plants can be powered by local or renewable energy sources and built near farms that need fertilizer.
Typically, oil-based, medium – and, therefore, weak – supply of fertilizers and food is cheaper than its alternatives. But major shocks such as the US-Israel war against Iran reveal the vulnerability of the system, as efficient and financial as it can be. “At some point, the country will have to decide: ‘Do I want cheap fertilizer, importing it from the Strait of Hormuz or other countries? Or do I prefer to pay the green fee and have my own domestic production and energy and food security?'” said Rosa.
Rollins acknowledged this weakness in Tuesday’s press conference. “We get almost all our urea, almost all our phosphate, almost all our nitrogen from other countries in the world, and that has to stop,” he said.
However, the finding is that decentralizing this supply chain could inadvertently create a green divide – dividing the world between nations and farmers who can afford locally produced fertilizers and those who cannot. Many countries facing famine in Africa, for example, are already paying the highest price of fertilizer in the world and they cannot withstand further inflation.
“There are many stops on the way to closing the Strait of Hormuz for a child in Malawi to be fed,” said Cary Fowler, president of the nonprofit Food Security Leadership Council and a former US special envoy for global food security in the Biden administration. “What is clear is that the two things are connected.”
The same countries that are facing the worst effects of food security because of the Iran conflict are also struggling to feed their citizens following the collapse of global food aid after President Donald Trump dissolved the United States Agency for International Development, or USAID, last year. Emergencies like these are where the international community’s response becomes increasingly important, Fowler said.
Apart from the dissolution of USAID, which halted international research efforts and initiatives to improve agricultural practices in low-income countries, the United Nations World Food Program has in recent months expressed concern about historically low contributions. from the United States and other major Western donors.
“If we don’t invest in that sustainable productivity growth, then we’re putting ourselves in a situation where we’re going to need a lot more humanitarian aid, especially when there’s an outbreak like we’re going through now,” Fowler said. “And that gives us another choice – whether we give that humanitarian aid or not. And that’s a choice of whether we want, at least in the short term, to solve the problem. Or do we want to watch children starve to death on TV?”
It is not clear how long the strait will remain closed, although Trump has alternated between saying war with Iran. may continue until Aprilif not more, and announce that it is about to be done. Last week, the president announced that the United States strength begin escorting oil tankers through the restricted channel. “No matter what, the United States will ensure FREE FLOW OF ENERGY to the WORLD,” Trump he wrote on social media, before later announcing “death, fire and fury“If Iran continues its blockade of ships.” On Sunday, he told Fox News that the ships holding there should “show some courage” and push the stream.
The president did not mention fertilizer – or food.
Rahul Bali of He wasAtlanta’s NPR station and Grist affiliate, contributed reporting.
