There are already complete losers from the war in Iran: Iran’s self-defeating regime, the civilians under heavy bombardment in Iran and Lebanon, the Gulf countries’ whose reputation as a safe haven has been shattered by missiles and drones, people everywhere – but especially in the poorest countries in the world – affected by high prices of fuel and fertilizers and disruption of supply chains.
At the moment, it’s also not going too well for the Trump administration, which, despite early US military successes, finds itself stuck in disliked and high cost a war without a clear exit strategy. What the war will mean for others, from Israel to Iranian society, is still too early to say.
But there is one clear winner of the war so far: Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This is somewhat counterintuitive. Iran is an important strategic partner for a country with few close friends these days. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the third Russian-backed leader – after Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro – to be ousted in recent months. Putin has done it He strongly condemned the war and the assassination of Khamenei.
But to the extent that Iran’s plight is a geopolitical obstacle for the Kremlin, it is outweighed by the benefits of expensive oil, weak sanctions, diverted weapons, and a disrupted Western alliance. And it all came at a time when the Russian leader, who is facing an economic crisis at home and an ongoing bloody stalemate in Ukraine, needed more reinforcements.
“In the short term, at least, Putin hit the jackpot on this one,” said Angela Stent, an expert on Russian foreign policy at Georgetown University and the American Enterprise Institute.
Accounting for nearly a third of Russia’s government revenue, oil and gas are the lifeblood of Russia’s economy, and so is its war effort in Ukraine. It is no coincidence that global crude prices were rising to record highs in the 2000s at the same time Putin was consolidating power. So again that the price of energy remains hovering above $100 per barrelthe better for the Kremlin, especially since Russian exports are independent of the now partially blocked Strait of Hormuz.
The Financial Times estimates that Russia is now they earn an extra 150 million dollars a day in oil sales due to rising prices since the start of the war – likely to drop by nearly $5 billion by next month if prices remain high, which they can even if the war ends.
It has also become easier for Russia to sell its oil. Last week, the Trump administration the temporary lifting of sanctions against Russian oil currently in the seaallowing it to be shipped to buyers around the world, in an effort to relieve pressure on energy prices.
Help could not come at a better time for Russia. Russian energy revenues have decreased by almost a quarter last year to their lowest levels since the Covid pandemic and were set for further declines. US sanctions and tariff threats have led to a sharp drop in Russian oil bought by India, one of Russia’s most important customers, and the oil was sold at a deep discount, a discount that has disappeared in the past few weeks. The American and European governments were also slow to take measures to restrict and arrest them “shadow” ships. used to transport Russian oil against Western sanctions.
Russia’s difficulty selling oil before the war was only one aspect of the overall grim picture. A former economist of the central bank of Russia recently warned in Economist that the country’s economy had entered the “zone of death” slow growth, growing deficits, and limited activity outside the defense sector. This may have given Ukrainians hope that Russia’s war effort was not sustainable indefinitely, but for now, Moscow has been handed a lifeline.
“It certainly gives the government some options that they didn’t have before,” said Janis Kluge, an expert on the Russian economy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. For now, however, Putin is happy to profit, to tell the Russian energy companies last week that they should “take advantage of the present moment” to reduce the deficit.
Weapons and focus shift to the Middle East
If war in Iran were to break out in 2022 or 2023, it would likely give Ukraine a battlefield advantage. At the time, Russia was relying heavily on Iran for the inexpensive Shahed one-way jets that it has used to great effect in Ukraine. Now, however, Russia is produce thousands of its version of Shahed, known as Geran-2, per year, reducing its dependence on its Middle Eastern partner.
On the other side of the front line, officials say that US weapons were destined for Ukraine, including badly needed systems like the Patriot missile. receptors, may be directed to the Middle East. Responding to questions about the shortage of weapons, Trump he has complained that US weapons were given to “PT Barnum (Zelenskyy!)” and suggested that future support for NATO and the Ukrainian war effort. can be attributed to European soldiers to help open the Strait of Hormuz, which they have shown little inclination to do.
And when Russia does not participate militarily in the defense of its ally, it is reported to take advantage of the opportunity in return, providing Iranians with targeted information about US forces in the region, as the US has been reporting to the Ukrainians for years. It is not clear how much of this support is based on Iran’s missile efforts, which, although badly damaged, have killed at least seven US soldiers and hit high-profile targets, including CIA base in Saudi Arabia.
On the diplomatic side, Ukraine has once again fallen down the list of priorities in the capitals of Washington and Europe. American mediators have delay in scheduled negotiations scheduled to take place this week in Turkey. It is far from clear whether Russia was actively participating in these talks in the past, but Putin is no doubt content to continue to prosecute a war that he continues to believe can be won on the battlefield.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy he acknowledged the issue last weektelling reporters, “We would not really like the United States to withdraw from the issue of Ukraine because of the Middle East.”
Ukraine expects to gain profit
Zelenskyy also hopes that there are some benefits to be found in the crisis. For once, Ukraine is the source military aid, instead of the recipient, send experts Middle East last week to provide guidance on shooting down Iranian missiles and drones. The government of Ukraine hopes that these consultations can turn into long-term contracts for the defense technology sector that continues to grow in its country, which, along with the much-needed funds, can also get Ukraine to some extent with the Gulf States, some of which also have close relations with Russia. United States is reportedly rejecting the drone technology program and Ukraine last year, and Trump rejected Zelenskyy’s offer of support last week.
If the war has provided a showcase for Ukraine’s air defense skills, it has been a less impressive performance by Iran. air defense provided by Russia, which have been proven to be no match for US and Israeli attacks. It is hard to imagine that many countries will line up to buy Russian S-300s after this war.
Recovery, not regression
Just how much Russia benefits from America’s latest war may depend largely on the duration of the war. The economic benefits are likely to be limited if the global oil market disruption ends in the next few weeks. If the war were to end with a complete regime change and the replacement of the Islamic Republic by a pro-American government, that would also be far less beneficial to Russia than a long-term stalemate for the United States that ends with a tough guy like newly anointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei or another like-minded leader in power.
Politically, though, the effects can be long-lasting. Anger in the Global South over US support for Israel during the war in Gaza already undermined the efforts of the Biden administration to build a unity to isolate Russia. Putin, who has volunteered to serve as a mediator in the Iran waris likely to take full political advantage in a situation where much of the world sees the United States as the aggressor rather than Russia.
