War in Iran has scared many inside the country, but others worry that peace could be just as scary. “I’m really scared,” Shaghayeh, a 32-year-old who lives in Tehran, told me last week. “But I won’t be happy if the war ends now. Do you want to leave us alone with Mojtaba?”
Shaghayeh, a left-wing activist, was referring to the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, whose regime continues to force a complete shutdown of the Internet. Communicating with anyone within Iran’s borders is a challenge, but I have been able to speak with more than a dozen people over the past three weeks. (To protect their safety, I am referring to them under pseudonyms.) I was struck by how many people in Iran expressed the same paradox: They fear the continuation of the war, but they also fear its end.
Iran is a country with 90 million people, and I cannot claim that the people I talked to are representatives. But very few of them told me they were satisfied with their lives before the war. At first, some saw America’s intervention with Israel as a sign of hope – a possible escape from economic ruin and social oppression. Now some of the same Iranians have begun to fear that the United States and Israel have locked them into a worse fate: Either the war continues and the bombs continue to fall on their heads, or it ends, giving way to a more brutal regime.
Some Iranians started our calls with a bad joke: “As you can see, I’m still alive.” Others did not waste time, remembering that the line can cut at any time. “We are being bombed, Arash,” Ali, a leftist anti-government activist in Tehran, told me earlier this month. “Get our voices out to the world: No to war, no to killing, no to Israeli and American bombs.”
After more than three weeks, the war has killed at least 1,443 Iranians citizensincluding 217 children, according to Human Rights Watch, a US-based non-profit organization run by Iranians. Some Iranians told me that the costs of the war have been so severe that no end can justify them.
Ziba was crying uncontrollably when she left me a voice message. He was staying at his grandmother’s house in Tehran, and a bomb had broken the windows. “Why can’t people understand that these conditions are no better than lack of freedom?” he asked. “Damn freedom if this is the price we pay. I almost had a heart attack. Fuck this freedom. I still can’t breathe.”
When I spoke to Nastaran, his windows had been broken recently as well. However, he had hope. “Hope must not die,” he told me. Nastaran, who is 26 years old, said he did not have enough money to live in Tehran before the bombs started falling. “I hate this war. But something better can follow.” Hassan, 32, went further. “I will tell you only one thing,” he said. “I’m just not happy where I am don’t do it hear the sound of shells.”
That might be the biggest endorsement of war I’ve ever heard. Many people I spoke to are deeply hurt by the conflict, and not just because of the damage it has caused.
Shahrzad moved to Europe several weeks before the war. I had spoken to him in January, a few days after the government did that to be killed protesters. Back then, the 29-year-old told me he was in favor of foreign intervention, hoping it would remove the Islamic Republic. But last week, Shahrzad said he no longer believes that America and Israel care about that outcome.
“Now I see that their intention is probably to make Iran weaker than before, even if the government continues to remain in power.” He expressed America’s clear intention to negotiate with Khamenei and his inner circle. “I thought they had concluded that Iran without the Islamic Republic was in their interest as well. Now I know this is not their priority.”
Melika, 21, also recently left Iran for Europe. In January, he told me that he wanted to see the great leader killed, but now he is against war. “When Khamenei died, I was happy, but only for a short time—like when you get medicine,” Melika said. “It didn’t last a day. After that I felt only one thing: fear, fear, fear.”
Some Iranians said they expected anti-government forces to rebel after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—a hope that Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu had also expressed. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, has called on Iranians to help topple the regime. But some of those I spoke to have lost faith in him. “I think people have not risen up because they don’t have a proper leader,” Shahrzad said. All Pahlavi is doing, he said, is “trying to please Trump.”
Even if they had the right leader, the protesters would still have to contend with US and Israeli bombardment, as well as the inadequate security forces the government has assembled. Dissidents would also face opposition from their fellow citizens, some of whom support the government. I spoke to a man in his 40s who supported Mojtaba Khamenei and said “he will fight to the death not to allow Pahlavi to return.”
Some Iranians who oppose the regime cannot imagine the war producing any positive results without organized opposition. Both Melika and Shahrzad echoed the terrifying paradox I’ve heard from others: They fear the fight, but they also fear its conclusion.
“I am surprised by how strong the government has become,” Melika said. “Although I want the war to stop, I know they will be very brutal once it ends.”
Shahrzad returned to his bell. “War makes me sad, of course,” he said. “But I’m worried that when it ends, the government will be worse off.”
