Welcome to Foreign Policy‘s Southeast Asia Brief.
Highlights this week: The Philippines declares an energy emergencyThailand he gets permission to travel through the Strait of HormuzSingapore he wants China to take actionand Low jet fuel prices.
Philippines Declares Energy Emergency
On March 24, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. he announced national energy emergency.
The Philippines has seen one of the most violent countries in the world increases in the price of gasoline, according to AFP research, rise by more than 50 percent in a month. Diesel price it is worse, after almost twice in that period.
As part of it statementMarcos announced the creation of a committee aimed at reducing the impact of price hikes on key sectors and finding ways for the private sector to use less fuel.
Other effective measures included fuel subsidies, passenger subsidies, expansion of public transport, and temporary reductions and suspensions of toll fees.
More government he announced was looking for the 30-day rice price. It is also considering to stop fuel tax.
The government is ready to be raised a series of measures to try to save energy, such as ordering civil servants to use less air conditioning and reducing travel.
The announcements come as oil prices are being pushed up strikes and shipping workers, a powerful group tradition of protest.
The lack of energy makes the Philippines also turn to countries with which it has subtle ties.
In interview and BloombergMarcos said “definitely” there will be a reset of relations with China.
He suggested the dispute could give new impetus to talks, reopened in 2023 but since suspended, on joint energy exploration in disputed areas of the South China Sea.
Russia has also entered the gap, and a oil tanker carrying more than 700,000 barrels arriving last week. (Moscow is nearby to ban for the transportation of gasoline is likely to reduce frequency.)
Still, one should not hint at the idea of strategic direction. The Philippines also has he turned around to Japan for oil.
There are also signs of anger in the conflict set in the country by the American war, while one independent senator accused the President of the United States Donald Trump. But for now, popular anger seems to be directed at Marcos.
The Philippines is particularly facing the oil crisis, but the country across the region they are taking the same steps.
In Cambodia, where the price of oil it increased 68 percent due to war, according to Khmer timesThe government has told government agencies to implement strict measures for fuel efficiency. It also reduces fat taxes.
Meanwhile, Laos—poor, heavily indebted, and heavily dependent on imported oil—has instituted a three-day plan. school week.
It also has cut off service fees for electric vehicles and ordering government agencies not to buy new gas-powered vehicles unless absolutely necessary.
Vietnam is there encouraging steps to work from home and keep fuel taxes at zero until April 15.
The prime minister of Thailand has done just that he urged citizens to get rid of themselves by using oil and not hoarding it.
There is also a global race for equipment. American pardon of restrictions about Russian offshore oil prompted several countries in the region to express their interest—though as noted above, this plan may now be in trouble.
Meanwhile, Australia and Singapore are to work together to help distribute each other’s energy supplies.
Australia is looking for a similar arrangement with Malaysiawhich Iran has allowed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz.
Singapore pages China. “China can play a greater role in supporting regional prosperity and stability,” said Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong he announced March 26 at the Bo’ao Forum for Asia in Hainan, China.
Citing the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, the breakdown of international law, and increased protectionism, Wong added that the foundations of international stability “are under serious stress.”
China, Wong hoped, could be part of many initiatives to help keep the show on the road.
China’s economic and technological leadership, especially in digital and green technology, makes it a major contributor to issues from infrastructure to international norms, he said.
Compare this with comments made about the United States by Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan in a March 23 interview with Reuters. “(T)he underwriter of this world order has now become a reforming authority, and some people might even say a troublemaker.”
Still, Balakrishnan emphasized Singapore’s strong economic ties with China and the United States.
“Is it in the national interest to be forced to choose a side? I don’t think so. We should be important, useful, but not used by both sides.”
Thai ships through Hormuz. On March 28, the Prime Minister of Thailand Anutin Charnvirakul he announced had reached an agreement with Iran to allow Thai oil tankers to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz.
The agreement could be a big win for Thailand, which is among the countries that import oil.dependent countries in the region.
One ship was ready to pass through before. The Iranian Embassy in Thailand commented on the incident, posting on X, “Friends have a special place.”
As previously discussed, on March 11 a Thai cargo ship was he hit for an Iranian missile. This led to protests from Thailand, which enjoys good relations with Iran.
Cambodian journalists are sentenced to 14 years in prison. Two Cambodian journalists were sentenced to 14 years in prison for treason confirmed by a court on March 26.
Pheap Phara and Phorn Sopheap were accused of publishing a photo taken in a restricted area during the July border dispute with Thailand.
In fact, the photo was republished by the Thai media, which claimed that the photo showed unexploded landmines. (Thailand claim (that Cambodia was planting new landmines was the main spark of last year’s conflict.)
The lawyer of the two has said that he will do so file petition to the Supreme Court against the decision. Various groups have succeeded be damned judgment
Nop Vy, executive director of the Cambodian Journalists Union, too criticized the sentence, saying: “For me, this 14-year sentence is unacceptable and harsh. It can intimidate (journalists) who report on border issues.”
Picture of the Week
A farmer burns a paddy field after harvesting to prepare for new planting in Nakhon Sawan, Thailand, March 28.Chaiwat Subprasom/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Thailand, like the rest of the region, suffers greatly from air pollution. The dry season of March-April mostly particularly difficultespecially in northern Thailand. Forest fire combustion– some natural, some illegal – and farmers burning fields of harvested crops to clear them for the next planting.
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Macbeth in Minangkabau and Shawn Hoo in Door Times. Malaysian playwright Norzizi Zulkifli has transformed Shakespeare’s classic tragedy into a scarsa form of singing and dancing of the Sumatran Minang people.
Japanese military forces will arrive in the Philippines for the first time since World War II. Takahashi Kosuke examines how Japan’s planned participation in the upcoming Philippine-US military exercise reflects the country’s changing strategic posture, in A diplomat.
Can Laos “de-risk” China? Keith Barney and Simon Creak ask whether the country can reduce its growing dependence on heavily indebted China, in East Asia Forum.
In Focus: Can a Plane Keep Flying?
On March 27, Vietnamese media reported that the national airlines were slash flights due to fuel shortages. Vietnam Airlines will reduce the number of flights by 10 percent to 20 percent from April 1 if the price of jet fuel continues to rise. Vietjet Air is also looking at an 18 percent reduction. And Bamboo Air is aiming for a 50 percent reduction.
In the Philippines, the carrier is Cebu Pacific he announced on March 24 that it is reducing the number of flights on some routes and suspending others. This coincided with Marcos saying in an interview that there was a “distinct possibility” that flights would be suspended in the country.
Other airlines including Malaysia Airlines, Firefly, and Batik Air are implementing surcharges.
Meanwhile, in Thailand, the government is relying on airlines to continue travel price down during Songkran—a major national holiday where many Thais return home.
And in Indonesia government resists calls to try to raise existing domestic airfares—although this may change when the large flow of people returning home after Eid ends.
The main problem is oil. Jet fuel price it is already over $200 a barrel in Asia. This represents significant disruption to supply chains and expected shortages.
Actions by various parties to try to preserve their own equipment are causing further shortages; there is an increase a sign to monopolize.
Marcos also claimed in his interview that the main problem is that several countries are trying to conserve jet fuel by refusing to refuel when foreign planes land. This forces these planes to carry their own fuel required for the return journey.
Faced with this, government attempts to protect consumers and businesses will have little effect. We are already entering a phase of demand destruction where services are cut. Rating they may follow, say smart people, like Philippine Airlines President Richard Nuttall.
