Updated at 5:34 pm ET on April 3, 2026
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Since January, the Trump administration has blocked almost all oil shipments to Cuba, causing the situation on the island to deteriorate significantly. Electricity is becoming increasingly unreliable, food is spoiling, and a crumbling medical system now threatens to create a major health crisis. Some Cubans are hospitalized is reported he already died from obstruction. According to my colleague Vivian Salama, a staff writer who has been reporting on Cuba, all of this is part of the White House’s plan to invade the island, destabilize Cuba’s top leadership and force its government to hold diplomatic talks with the United States. In today’s daily, he and I discuss the Trump administration’s possible intentions for the country, and consider who will benefit from such a rapid escalation.
God bless you: What is the White House’s plan for Cuba right now?
Vivian Salama: At the end of last year, the administration began to suppress Venezuela economically and militarily with the goal of doing the same to Cuba. For decades, Cuba has been heavily dependent on Venezuela for economic purposes, particularly oil. By cutting off Venezuela’s ability to sell oil abroad, the administration also hoped that it would cause severe pain and eventually bring about major changes in the Cuban government.
What the White House wants done remains unclear. It says that Venezuela’s leaders need to go, but it doesn’t talk openly about regime change. It’s important to put Venezuela in that context, because even though the regime forcibly removed Nicolás Maduro in January, it did so while still maintaining, for now at least, his rule. Trump is working with Maduro’s vice president in Venezuela, and he may do the same thing in Cuba. Will we see a ground invasion, or a horrific invasion like we saw in Venezuela? That’s a big question mark.
Love: The Trump administration has indicated that it is more interested in changing the Cuban leadership than in overthrowing the current regime. Why would that be the goal of the administration, as opposed to ending communism on the island?
Vivian: The goal is to pursue the commercial and economic interests of the United States. This is what President Trump is all about. The ideological aspect is not a primary concern for him, as it is for many Cuban Americans. Trump will have achieved something historic and important if he is able to put a Cuban government, or a Cuban leader, at least, who is more focused on the United States so that the United States will go and invest in Cuba. Anything more than that is kind of a weed for him.
Love: Why does Trump choose this moment to act?
Vivian: Every president, Democrat and Republican, has pondered the idea of regime change in Cuba. It was just a matter of how they would achieve that.
This has been one of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s top goals since taking public office. He has long called for regime change in Cuba. He has long called for democratic change in Venezuela, and was able to convince Trump that this is tied to two things: his immigration and anti-narcotics crackdown and his broader aspirations for the United States to restore its hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. Trump is also very focused on his legacy. He is a second-term president, and, barring major changes to the Constitution, he will leave office. He wants to do things that other presidents talked about and didn’t do. Iran war is one of them. And that is a major reform of the Cuban government.
Love: What has the current oil embargo done to Cuba?
Vivian: Garbage is piling up on the streets because there is no gas for the trucks to go around and pick it up. People are reported dead or in critical condition because hospital generators are now not working. The city of Havana—and the country as a whole—has gone dark many times because its power grid has completely failed. This is exactly the effect that the Trump administration was looking to achieve in order to bring the Cuban government to its knees.
Cubans have gone through similar periods in the past. They are used to plan to crawl down and depend on the minimum level to work. But in this case, it has gotten so bad that it seems the government has at least had to start a conversation with Washington.
Love: What has been Russia’s role here, as a longtime ally of Cuba? I know the Kremlin has said it will continue to send aid to the island.
Vivian: After the blockade began, a Russian tanker sailed for Cuba. That was before the US eased sanctions on Russian oil last month to help reduce the impact of the Iran war on the global economy. And the tanker did not turn, even when Trump later modified those sanctions to prevent Russia from supplying oil to Cuba in particular. Russia’s move was seen as a sign that its relationship with Cuba is still strained, but this was not just a humanitarian gesture. It was also an attempt to provoke the United States, and there were questions about whether or not there would be a confrontation.
Then Trump said Sunday that he would allowing the tanker to reach Cubaeffectively breaking his own blockade. The reason among the administration officials that I spoke with is that they have caused enough pain for the Cuban government to want to talk—they don’t want the situation to reach a point that triggers an exodus of Cubans, or cause some kind of disaster on the island. There is concern that there may be an outbreak of cholera because of the conditions there.
Russia always seems to benefit when there is geopolitical confusion. While the United States is focused on the war in Iran, Russia stands to benefit from its conflict in Ukraine and the rest of the world. Cuba is a very small example of that. The fear is that if the United States continues to give Russia permission, or turn a blind eye to Russia, that country could rebuild, once again, into the kind of international threat that we saw in the years before its invasion of Ukraine.
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Today’s news
- The Trump administration asked Congress to approve a $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal year 2027. The administration also requested about $73 billion in cuts to domestic programs.
- Leaders of the Democratic Party charged with obstructing President Trump’s executive order strengthen mail voting laws, saying the order is unconstitutional and interferes with state elections.
- One member of the American crew he was rescued after the fighter jet was shot down on Iran this morning; The status of the second operator remains unknown as search efforts continue. A second US fighter jet was attacked by Iranian fire earlier today; the pilot is safe, according to people familiar with the matter.
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