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Welcome to The Logoff: After the United States and Iran failed to reach a long-term peace deal over the weekend, President Donald Trump is trying something new: closing the Strait of Hormuz.
How does that work? Iran already closed the Strait, an important oil and natural gas channel, to most foreign traffic shortly after the US-Iran war began. Now, Trump’s blockade will also block traffic at Iranian ports and reducing Iran’s ability to sell its own oiland further disrupt the international market.
CENTCOM, the US military command in the Middle East, has said that the blockade does not extend to ships “transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports” – but with the Strait’s ongoing closure, there is no chance of further traffic restarting unless Iran wants it to.
What is Trump trying to accomplish? Trump still wants the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened, whose ceasefire last week – despite his wishes – it didn’t work out. Now, he appears to be betting that imposing his own blockade targeting Iranian shipments will force Iran to give way.
In a Social Truth post over the weekend, he wrote that “At some point, we will reach an ‘ALL IN, ALL OUT'” base for the Strait.
What is the context? As we mentioned above, US and Iranian delegations met in Pakistan over the weekend to try to negotiate a peace agreement to address the ongoing conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions. That didn’t work, so it’s back to the drawing board.
Now what? Sanctions aside, the US-Iran ceasefire is still in place until next week, and we may get another round of talks before it expires. Whether that will bear fruit is another question: Vice President JD Vance described the US proposal over the weekend as “our last and best offer.”
The restrictions could also raise prices around the world – increasing economic pressure on both countries to reach an agreement.
And so, it’s time to leave…
Hello readers, have I mentioned that bike racing is probably the best sport in the world? I’m sure I have. In particular, I’m thinking about this weekend’s edition of Paris-Roubaix, the race also known as the Hell of the North, and its winner, Wout van Aert, who won on Sunday after years of injuries, crashes, and being close but not quite.
Patrick Redford, Defector’s intrepid cycling writer, does a better job than I can of capturing the meaning of van Aert’s victory, and you can read his story. here is the giveaway link (and watch Aert’s winning run here)
Thanks for reading, have a good evening, and we’ll see you back here tomorrow!
