The US president says the war is “very close to being over,” while Tehran insists it is not seeking conflict but will not accept pressure or capitulate.
US President Donald Trump has said he is “full opening” Strait of Hormuz, presenting the move as beneficial “China and the world” after demanding Beijing agreed “not sending weapons to Iran.” Trump’s remarks come as the US military claims that US warships have effectively blocked Iranian trade through the vital waterway.
Iran’s military has warned that it may target maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea if the blockade of its ports continues. Tehran insists it does not want war or instability but will not accept pressure or surrender.
The situation is becoming increasingly apparent amid reports of ongoing indirect communications about the possibility of a second round of talks between the United States and Iran, following last weekend’s talks in Pakistan that ended without an agreement on a ceasefire initiated by Washington and Israel at the end of February.
What exactly happens in the ocean?
Transit through Hormuz, a major international trade route, remains fully disrupted while the United States acts restriction of Iranian ports.
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has said that the measures apply to ships of all nations entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, while emphasizing that freedom of navigation. “to and from non-Iranian ports” through Hormuz will not be prevented. The barrier has been “fully executed,” according to the army.
Tehran says it will not return to pre-war maritime conditions and is preparing new rules for ships from countries that have imposed sanctions on Iran or supported US and Israeli attacks to pay taxes as compensation for crossing the waterway.
Analysts at the energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates, cited by Reuters, say the data monitoring shows. “a small but growing number of oil tankers moving” through Hormuz, though “Traffic generally remains below normal levels.”
Fars News Agency reported that two Iranian ships crossed the sea on Wednesday, including a large ship that entered Iranian waters through the open sea with its transponder and another ship carrying food bound for Imam Khomeini port.
How does each side present the situation?
Trump has touted the latest moves as a success, declaring on Social Reality that the problem is there “fully unlocked” and that China is “very happy.” He also claimed Beijing had it “he agreed not to send weapons to Iran.” China has not responded publicly and has previously denied providing military aid to Tehran. US officials say the measures are aimed at pressuring Iran while keeping international shipping lanes open.
Iran previously announced that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz “enemy ships” in response to the US-Israeli bombing campaign and has demanded its recognition “freedom” over waterways and the right to tax. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran does not seek war or instability and remains willing to negotiate, but warned that any attempt to force the country to surrender is likely to fail and will not be accepted by the Iranian nation.
How are the markets doing?
Oil prices have edged higher as concerns over disruptions in Hormuz – which carries about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG shipments – offset hopes of easing tensions.
Brent crude traded around $95 a barrel on Wednesday, with the prospect of fresh talks helping to push gains below $100 even as traders continued to focus on supply risks in the Middle East. Gelber & Associates said traders are no longer offering prices in the absence of a large scale, but are still maintaining “residual payment” as the flow returns to equilibrium rather than back to normal.
Broader economic concerns are also growing. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the crisis could affect global growth, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told the Financial Times that higher oil prices could increase US inflation expectations, explaining “Double Jeopardy” from Iran’s position and existing trade tensions.
Stock markets, however, have so far taken a more positive outlook, with major Asian indexes rising on hopes that diplomacy will avert a prolonged disruption of Gulf energy supplies.
What does Moscow say?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has given warned against increased further, showing hope that the United States “it will be realistic … and will not promote unprovoked aggression” against Tehran, which he said risks destabilizing the Middle East.
At the same time, he indicated that Moscow is ready to deal with supply crises, saying Russia “Certainly it can compensate for the scarcity of resources faced by China and other countries” if Iran’s exports are constrained and is willing to work with partners “on an equal and mutually beneficial basis.”
What will come next?
While Trump says the war may end soon, promising “Two wonderful days” diplomatic efforts seem to be gaining momentum.
Officials from Pakistan, Iran, and several Gulf states say negotiating teams from Washington and Tehran may return to Islamabad later this week. Pakistan’s chief negotiator reportedly arrived in Tehran on Wednesday with a US delegation and is expected to discuss preparations for the second round of talks.
The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire last week, raising hopes of a settlement, but both sides have exchanged accusations about “unacceptable” claims. Washington has not formally committed to extending the deal beyond its current expiration date, a senior US official told CNN.
