American and Iranian mediators are reported approaching for a deal that would end a week-long war between the nations, following the collapse of face-to-face talks in Islamabad last weekend. In his announcement on Sunday, Vice President JD Vance initially seemed pessimistic about the whole thing, as you might expect from someone who dreams were just shattered. But now there are reports of callbacks, Pakistani delegations, systems of systems…it’s all too much. A diplomat.
Unfortunately, my colleagues in the Today, It’s Explained The podcast has secured an interesting interview with a real diplomat: Wendy Sherman, former deputy secretary of state and President Barack Obama’s chief negotiator of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. So this morning, we turn to Sherman to (try to) understand the Trump administration’s missteps in Iran in 2026.
In his new interview with Vox’s Noel KingSherman warned against too much “reduction” in discussing the outcome of war or negotiations. (Iran has completely undermined, he said.) But he outlined five areas where the Trump administration’s approach, so far, has failed.
Problem number 1: They sent team B to negotiate
About 300 Americans arrived in Islamabad for the most recent round of talks between the US and Iran, including national security advisers, regional experts, and Vice President JD Vance, who led the US delegation. But the initial rounds of talks were led by people like Jared Kushner (son-in-law of Donald Trump) and Steve Witkoff (a personal friend of Trump). Regardless of their qualifications, no human being has any special expertise on Iran (or the actual position of the government).
To make matters worse, the United States attacked Iran twice in the earlier rounds of cease-fire talks that Kushner and Witkoff orchestrated. So they don’t reflect trust, Sherman said.
Problem number 2: They followed a strategy that benefited Russia
Regardless of the outcome of these peace talks, no one is doing better than the Russian President Vladimir Putin. While the Iran war is costing the United States something like 2 billion dollars a daycan produce about 151 billion dollars in excess income this year for the Russian government.
Russia is benefiting from rising oil prices and from the easing of longstanding US sanctions, which Trump partially lifted in March. The fight has already eased Russia’s domestic economic crisis and allowed Putin to continue his war in Ukraine.
But that’s not the only way Russia — and America’s other adversaries, including China — are benefiting from the Iran war. The United States will also come out of the conflict weaker than it started, Sherman said: “We’ve spent billions of dollars. We’ve reduced our inventory of weapons that we might need for other theaters. We’ve destroyed our alliances.”
Problem number 3: They badly damaged the world economy
At this point, I probably don’t need to list the many and varied ways that the war – and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz – has disrupted the world economy. Just this Tuesday, Britain’s finance minister criticized Trump for what he called a “mistake” and a costly “foolishness.”
Whatever you do with that “stupidity,” however, the cost was predictable, Sherman said. In fact, it came up repeatedly during the 2015 nuclear talks.
“We repeatedly told the US Congress, ‘if we risk war, it could close the Strait of Hormuz; it could raise gas prices; it could bring down the global economy,'” he added.
Problem number 4: In fact, they did not have the “backs” of the Iranians.
President Trump initially called on Iranians to rise up against the regime, promising that the United States would support them. Now, regime change is no longer the goal of a US military campaign or cessation negotiations. This is a big blow to many democracy activists in Iran and in the Iranian diaspora, as a writer and advocate. Roya Rastegar wrote for Vox last month.
“Iranians who want freedom … have been completely forgotten in this process,” Sherman said. “The current regime in Iran is more radical than the previous one, if you can believe it.”
Problem number 5: They actually made the nuclear problem worse
Like my colleague Joshua Keating has writtenTrump’s ambition to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon may come true encourage government looking for a bomb. Why? Because in today’s (chaotic) world, that seems like the best or only way to protect against US intervention.
At the same time, if Iran gets a bomb, other countries will too – including close US allies, Sherman said. So the world can be at an end more the possibility of seeing a nuclear attack because of Trump’s war.
The bottom line? “The United States, in my opinion, has gone backwards.”
