Steve Holland
Updated ,first published
The United States has expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran will continue this week in Pakistan, and a senior Iranian official has said Tehran is considering joining, but major obstacles and doubts remain as the two-week ceasefire nears its end.
US President Donald Trump said Vice President JD Vance was preparing to join a US delegation headed to Islamabad for a second round of talks, but appeared to rule out any extension of the two-week ceasefire with Iran as “highly likely” if a deal is not reached.
The president has said the ceasefire expires “Wednesday evening, Washington time”, and a Pakistani source involved in the talks said it would expire at 8pm on Wednesday, US time (10am Thursday, AEST).
Trump wants a deal that would prevent further oil price rises and stock market shocks, but has insisted Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons. Tehran hopes to strengthen its control of the Strait of Hormuz in order to reach an agreement that will prevent a resumption of war, reduce sanctions, but not stop its nuclear program.
Trump was optimistic on Tuesday about reaching a “big deal” with Iran, but said the US military was ready to resume bombing. He was asked in an interview with CNBC on whether he would allow the ceasefire to “continue” past the deadline if there is progress in talks, Trump replied: “Well, I don’t want to do that. We don’t have much time. They have to negotiate.”
Trump on Monday insisted he would “not be rushed into a bad deal”.
The Iranian official, speaking to Reuters, said Tehran was “positively reviewing” its participation in the talks, despite withdrawing them earlier, but stressed that no decision had been made.
On Tuesday, Iran’s state television said that “no envoy from Iran has visited Islamabad … so far”.
A Pakistani source involved in the discussions said there was momentum for talks to resume on Wednesday, and that Trump could attend in person or virtually if a deal is signed.
“Things are moving forward, and the talks are heading for tomorrow,” the source said on Tuesday on condition of anonymity.
Meanwhile, representatives of Israel and Lebanon will hold a second round of talks in Washington on Thursday, the US State Department confirmed, marking the first talks between the two countries since a 10-day ceasefire in the Lebanese conflict took effect last week.
The ship tries to transit Hormuz
Three ships – two cargo ships and an oil tanker – were seen trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday as US and Iranian blockades remained in place.
Shoja 2, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, crossed the strait and entered the Gulf of Oman, but stopped marking its position. The vessel’s progress is being closely watched after the US Navy seized another Iranian vessel on Sunday, the first seizure since Washington imposed a blockade of the waterway last week.
The other two ships have no clear ties to Iran. The Lian Star, a Gambian-flagged cargo ship, crossed the strait and headed south, while the Ean Spir, a medium-range ship with no known owner, traveled northeast from waters near the United Arab Emirates, heading for Oman.
Traffic through the vital waterway, through which a fifth of oil and liquefied natural gas flows, otherwise remained calm after a chaotic weekend in which Iran declared the corridor open before closing it when the United States refused to lift its sanctions on Iranian ports.
About 800 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday condemned the United States for what it called an attack on the Iranian merchant ship Touska over the weekend, demanding the immediate release of the ship, its crew and their families.
“Iran will use all its power to defend its national interests and security and protect the rights and dignity of its citizens … the United States will be fully responsible for any further escalation in the region,” it said, according to Iranian state media.
Maritime security sources said the ship may carry what Washington sees as a dual-use utility that could be used by the military. US Central Command said Touska’s crew had failed to heed repeated warnings and had breached the blockade.
China, a major buyer of Iranian crude, expressed concern over the “forced seizure”. On Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping used a rare phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to urge the restoration of free navigation through the channel and a permanent end to hostilities.
Oil prices fell and stocks rebounded in early Asian trade on Tuesday on hopes of a resumption of talks, after rising nearly 6 percent the previous day amid doubts over whether they would continue.
Brent crude futures fell 54¢, or 0.6 percent, to $US94.94 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate for May fell $US1.11, or 1.2 percent, to $US88.50.
‘They are going to negotiate’
Thousands of people have been killed by the US and Israeli attacks against Iran and in Israel’s invasion of Lebanon carried out in parallel with the start of the war on February 28. The war has caused a historic shock to the world’s energy supply and fears that a long-term conflict could push the world economy into recession.
Speaking on the John Fredericks Network on Monday, Trump said Iran would negotiate but insisted Washington would not allow Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon.
“The president, as commander-in-chief, still has a number of options at his disposal that he is not afraid to use.”
Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary
“They’re going to negotiate, and hopefully they’re going to make a fair deal, and they’re going to build their country, but they won’t have — when they do — they won’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News’ Hannity program that an agreement with Iran was close “thanks to the success of the military operation and his (Trump’s) style of tough negotiations”.
“And if not, the president, as commander in chief, still has a number of options at his disposal that he’s not afraid to use,” Leavitt said.
Over the weekend, Trump warned that the United States would destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran if it reneged on its terms, continuing a recent pattern of such threats, while Iran has vowed to attack power plants and desalination plants in its Arab Gulf neighbors in retaliation for any attack on civilian infrastructure.
On Tuesday, Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, warned that Tehran has “new cards to play on the battlefield” if the conflict resumes, and said the country “will not accept talks under the guise of threats”.
Reuters, AP, Bloomberg
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