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The Philippine weather bureau is raising its status to an El Niño Alert on Wednesday, April 22. A possible El Niño could bring more problems to the country, which is already reeling from the effects of the Middle East crisis.
MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau warned the public that there is now a 79% chance. A child ongoing in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the period of June-July-August 2026, which may cause drought and periods of drought in parts of the Philippines.
As a result, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) raised its warning status from El Niño Watch to El Niño Alert on Wednesday, April 22.
The El Niño Watch, which was issued last March 25, indicated a probability of at least 55% that the weather would develop within six months.
An El Niño alert, meanwhile, is issued when El Niño has at least a 70% chance of emerging within two to three months.
“These developments have a significant impact on weather patterns across the country, including below-normal rainfall in several areas, which may affect important sectors such as water resources, agriculture, energy supply, and general public welfare,” PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando said in a press conference on Wednesday.
Servando called on the national government, local government units, and the public to prepare for the coming possibility of El Niño.
“This is an important point where preparedness measures should be strengthened,” he said.
‘Super El Niño’ has not been ruled out
If El Niño occurs, it could last until early 2027. This could bring more problems to the Philippines, which is already reeling from the effects of the Middle East crisis in all sectors.
Ana Liza Solis, head of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Forecasting Division, said the El Niño period may start weak before becoming moderate to strong by September-October-November 2026. But she added that they are not ruling out the possibility of a strong to very strong El Niño, or so-called “Super El Niño,” by the fourth quarter of 2022 January 2022.
“All the (climate) systems have not yet agreed. So there is always a possibility, but then the uncertainty is still high,” Solis explained.
(Climate models are not yet perfect. So there is always a possibility, but uncertainty remains high.)
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO, which the World Meteorological Organization defines as “a recurring natural phenomenon characterized by changes in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, as well as changes in the atmosphere.”
The other two phases of ENSO are A girl or cold phase, and neutral.
Currently, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the tropical Pacific. This current neutral phase was preceded by a A weak La Niña period from late 2025 to early 2026.
While some parts of the Philippines may experience drier than normal conditions during El Niño, PAGASA said the western part of the country may still experience above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon or spring. southwest the season. The southwest monsoon season is usually from June to September, but can also start as late as May.
PAGASA also said there may be a few tropical cyclones due to El Niño, but they could still reach typhoon and super typhoon types.
The country is still in the middle of it hot and dry seasonwhich started at the end of March. – Rappler.com
