President Donald Trump has largely turned his attention away from the ongoing war in Ukraine – and Europe is no longer waiting for him to refocus.
Almost two months into the Iran war, Trump’s preoccupation with the Middle East has made Ukraine an afterthought within the West Wing, and a organizing principle in the Atlantic Ocean.
“Things seem to have stalled and need a new momentum,” said one European official who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on condition of anonymity.
But the last 24 hours proved that this is increasingly wishful thinking – that Trump, at this point, is more interested in denouncing and perhaps even punishing European powers than working together. On Wednesday, Trump blasted the German chancellor on social media,shocked the Pentagonby threatening to reduce the number of US troops in three European countries and holding long-term talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin where they agreed to a short-term ceasefire without consulting Ukraine.
In another time, any of these could have led to crisis meetings in the capitals of Europe. But few in Europe feel like the sky is falling – because, in many ways, it has already fallen, and some leaders have already begun to change, including through the possibility of creating a European Defense Union.
“While the president and his team are working toward an agreement that will ensure Iran can never have a nuclear weapon, they are also continuing to take steps to end the war between Russia and Ukraine,” Olivia Wales, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement. “The President remains hopeful that there will finally be a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia to end the senseless killings.”
But that amount has been clearly rejected in Ukraine in the West Wing.
Before Trump’s phone call with Putin, a senior White House official said they couldn’t remember the last time they heard anyone talk about the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
“Iran has definitely been a major target,” said the senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss topics he was not authorized to discuss publicly.
The president’s two top envoys involved in negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, “are working more on Iran,” the official continued, although they acknowledged that some contacts with their Russian and Ukrainian counterparts have continued.
For Europeans, Trump’s shifted focus and openness has given them a new perspective on the urgent need for greater freedom and independence from Washington. At the same time, the war with Iran has boosted Ukraine’s confidence, making its continued military capabilities open to allies in Europe and beyond.
“It’s all adding up,” a second European official said. “The impact of the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now huge and negative for Ukraine and Europe. If anything, it has strengthened Europe’s resolve to stand with Ukraine.”
While the Iran war and subsequent energy supply crisis have been a boon for Putin, Ukraine has opened up a new revenue stream by inking deals with European and Gulf allies eager for its drone defense technology. “Countries are beginning to realize that they need Ukraine as much as they need us,” the European official said. “Their combat experience and their technology.”
The European Union, which is looking to somehow speed up Ukraine’s membership, finally approved its €90 billion loan to Ukraine following the defeat of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has been blocking it. And European arms makers are scrambling to ramp up production capacity amid growing questions about whether the United States will deliver weapons bought by NATO for use in Ukraine under the PURL program now that the Iran war has depleted its stockpiles.
“The United States had assured us that weapons already paid for under PURL would be delivered,” a third European official said. “But I’m skeptical about more packages given to America’s needs.”
Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has been a staunch supporter of Trump for the past year, appears to be moving away from persuading the United States to stay involved, instead strategizing how to operate without it.
He has become increasingly skeptical about US involvement in the near future and is now looking to Turkey to host the next round of talks with Russia. In Ukraine, confidence in the future of American aid has fallen sharply. According to aa new national voteand the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, only 40 percent of countries believe that the United States will provide the necessary aid, down 17 points from the January survey. And the number of people who say they trust future security guarantees from the United States has dropped from 39 percent to 27 percent over the same period.
Zelenskyy this week blasted Vice President JD Vance for saying earlier this month that ending US defense aid to Ukraine and making the Europeans pay for it was “one of the things I’m proud of.”
“If JD Vance is proud that we are not helping, it means that he is helping the Russians, and I am not sure that this strengthens the United States,” Zelenskyy.He said in an interview with Newsmax. “Russia is an enemy. They will always be enemies with the United States.”
Richard Haass, longtime president of the Council on Foreign Relations, agreed,writing Thursday on Substackthat “US policy towards Russia and leaving Ukraine is ‘then,’ something shameful. It’s also a strategic mistake of the first order.”
For much of Trump’s first year back in office, European leaders looked to anger Trump with flattering rhetoric, higher tariffs and commitments to increase defense spending. It all seemed like a price worth paying to prevent the president from turning on Ukraine, cutting off intelligence supplies or arms purchases and seeking a new bilateral economic deal with Moscow.
But the differences between the Trump administration and European allies are beginning to look irreconcilable. Trump has gone from threatening earlier this year to seize Greenland from Denmark to denouncing and even seeking to punish specific NATO allies for their refusal to join the war in Iran – a war that has pushed the Ukraine war and the broader issue of European security into the White House.
There have been other signs that the administration’s attention is shifting beyond Ukraine.
The acting US ambassador to Ukraine, Julie Davis, announced that she will leave her post in the coming weeksdifferent information from the president. And Republicans this weekpressed Defense Minister Pete Hegseth during a closed-door meetingand publicly about why the Pentagon had not yet provided the $400 million in aid to Ukraine that Congress had approved months ago (Hegseth announced Wednesday that the money was finally released)
Former GOP leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell of Kentucky criticized the Trump administration during theOp-Ed for the Washington PostQuestioning is not just about holding on to a small amount of money. “Reluctance to give Ukraine what it needs weakens its ability to defend itself against aggression and complicates diplomatic prospects,” wrote McConnell, who also asked why officials have not yet traveled to Ukraine to monitor its advances in battlefield technology. “If we are serious about “drone rule,” we should not sand the relationship with the world’s leading experts.
across Europe, long-time partners are thinking about new alliances. European Union Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubiliusthis week he returned his songfor non-EU countries such as the UK, Norway and Ukraine to join the new European Defense Union to better integrate defense capabilities outside the EU itself, which he said would be equivalent to “a strong security guarantee for Ukraine after a just peace is established.”
And the 27 member states of the European Union that are preparing to meet with the other 20 countries neighboring Armenia under the auspices of the European Political Community, for the first time, have invited a non-European leader to participate – not the president of the United States but the Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney, whothe cry of the heartfrom Davos about the need to accept the new geopolitical realityIt may have accelerated a broader continental effort to reduce dependence on — and vulnerability to — Washington.
Trump’s prioritization of Iran over Ukraine, “leads the Europeans to prepare more urgently for collective security outside of the United States’ Article V commitment,” Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, said.
Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen,in an interview last weekhe called for a “strong European (defense) pillar” in light of the new reality.
“Since childhood, I have admired the United States. I saw the United States as the natural leader of the free world,” Rasmussen said during an appearance on Euro News. “It has been painful to conclude that we should reduce our dependence on the United States, but that is the state of affairs today.”
But European officials admit that it is a slow process to break away from decades of dependence on the United States. And some still believe that Trump must be the catalyst when it comes to ending the war in Ukraine.
“The continued cooperation of the United States is important even though they have great capabilities,” the first European official said. “It would be good to see American mediators visit Kyiv. At a minimum, the United States should continue military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine. But I think the Europeans can play a major role and bring a new direction to the talks, as long as the Americans continue to support Ukraine and help ensure whatever is agreed upon. After all, Trump wants this war to end.”
Veronika Melkozerova contributed to this report.
