“I suggested a little bit of a ceasefire, and I think he can do it,” President Donald Trump told reporters this week after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “There are so many people being killed, it’s so stupid.”
Putin has proposed a “modest” ceasefire in the past, but more than four years since his full-scale invasion, he is showing little sign that he plans to end the war that killing nearly half a million people.
The war in Ukraine, and US diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, have both received little attention in the US in recent weeks, with the focus on the Middle East conflict. Initially, it seemed that Russia could end as a country an unexpected beneficiary of the Iran crisiswith global oil prices rising, the US lifting sanctions on some Russian energy exports, and key US weapons, including critical missile launchers, diverted from Europe to the Middle East.
But if Russia is winning, you can’t tell from the events on the battlefield in recent weeks. The Russians did not make any territorial gains in March, and may have lost a small amount of territory since mid-March, despite launching a lot expected summer-summer attacks. The Institute for War Research, an American think tank, assesses that there is a high probability that Russia will seize the “fortress belt” of Ukraine, a heavily fortified Ukrainian-held part of the eastern region of Donbas which has been one of the targets of Russia’s main war. Ukraine is estimated Russian casualties at a record 35,351 in March, 96 percent of them are caused by drones.
Russia continued to attack Ukrainian cities throughout the winter, but Ukraine has become better at defending itself against such attacks, with its air defense systems at record lows. 33,000 drones in Marchaccording to the Ukrainian government. Ukrainians have been more successful in launching long-range strikes into Russia as well. Recently, their attacks were aimed at preventing Russia from harvesting energy from the Iran war: At the end of March, Reuters estimated that. 40% of Russia’s oil exports capacity had been taken online by Ukrainian strikes on pipelines, ports and refineries.
Although Ukraine still depends on the fickle US government for critical systems — such as Patriot interceptors and intelligence targeting — European countries now provide much of the country’s military aid, and Ukraine’s indigenous capabilities are growing as well. In fact, the expertise that Ukraine has acquired in developing drones and coordinating a multi-layered air defense allowed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ink a series of profitable defense contracts in recent weeks with several countries in the Persian Gulf and Europe. Like Trump can keep itafter years of heavy reliance on foreign defense aid, Ukraine now has its own “cards” to play.
Indeed, after years of Russia’s slow but relentless pace, which gave ammunition to critics of Ukraine’s aid who argued with failure of the country is inevitablethere is more faith from Ukrainian leaders and their supporters these days. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha recently made the point because of its development in drones and air defenseUkraine’s front line is now the “strongest” it has been in a year. Mick Ryan, retired Australian general and popular military commentator, soon they argued that “The strategic balance is beginning to favor Ukraine.”
It is probably too early to say that Ukraine is winning the war, but at least, it does not seem to be losing.
Flocks of drones and drones
According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russian forces have grown an average of 15 to 70 meters per day since 2024slower than almost any military offensive in the last century, and that success comes at a high cost. Ukrainian statistics show that more than 300 Russian soldiers have now been killed or injured for every kilometer captured.
“The Russians have suffered heavy losses – they are losing a few soldiers and a lot of equipment, and the Ukrainian line is not in danger of breaking,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, an Austrian military analyst who regularly visits the front line, who adds that “Russia’s strategy remains ‘shock, shock, tension.’
“The progress we are seeing is not going to change the future of war.”
– Olga Oliker, European Security director at Crisis Group
Looking at war in terms of territory held can be misleading. Much of the “front line” in Ukraine is now no-man’s land, dominated by drones. Personnel and recruitment problems on both sides, combined with the fact that surveillance drones have eliminated the element of surprise, have made it very difficult to mount a large-scale attack. (For humans at least: Zelenskyy claimed recently that for the first time the space of the Russian enemy was completely captured by robotic systems and drones, without human soldiers.)
It is possible that this trend may change in the coming months: Winter tends to favor protection because the lack of foliage makes it difficult to hide, and infrared sensors work better when the ground is colder. But for now, neither side seems capable of making major advances, and if they do – as when Russia captured the city of Pokrovsk after months of fierce fighting in December – they can’t. translating it into strategic momentum.
“The developments we are seeing are not going to change the future of war,” said Olga Oliker, director of European Security at the Crisis Group. “Both sides are still fighting with the expectation that the other will break politically.”
In what is perhaps a sign that not everything is going according to plan, the Kremlin recently announced that it is scaling back this year’s May 9 “Victory Day” parade, the annual commemoration of victory over Nazi Germany that doubles as an opportunity to showcase Russia’s military might. For the first time in decades, there will be no military equipment was displayed in the parade this year – perhaps a sign that the tanks that usually roam the Red Square are needed on the front line, or that there is concern about the strike in Ukraine. The Russian government has also been cracking down on the country’s Internet service, perhaps a sign of insecurity, leading to a rare wave of discontent expressed publicly. Putin himself has been in more isolation than usual due to fear of being killed.
But public opposition to the “special military operation” itself remains rare, and despite the economic headwinds, there is still little sign that Putin believes the war is unwinnable or that he is inclined to end it.
On the Ukrainian side, recruiting and staffing is still a concern, as it has been since early in the war. The government recently faced an outcry and promised reforms after pictures were circulated showing it weakened soldiers on the front line who was on the circuit and under fire for several months. But the fear that Russia could eventually overthrow Ukraine because of its size the population has decreased.
“I think everything is showing more stability than people expected,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, a former Pentagon official, now a senior analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses. “The Russian economy appears to be more stable; the critical Ukrainian infrastructure, although it has been taken in the face, has appeared to be more stable; and I think the front line has appeared to be more stable than people expected.”
In line with that stability, US-led efforts to mediate a cease-fire have effectively stalled as US envoy Steve Witkoff and other senior US diplomats focus on Iran. Ukrainian leaders still publicly support calls for a ceasefire, but hopes are fading that new talks could produce one.
For now, fears that Ukraine’s gradual defeat was inevitable seem premature: It is in a better position today than many would have expected, even a few months ago. But it is also increasingly difficult to see how this unique and destructive war will end.
