Governments that go to war usually work hard to convince the population that the decision to fight was justified and that any sacrifices would be manageable. In this spirit, Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried for more than four years to protect the residents of Moscow from the consequences of his invasion of Ukraine. Festivals and other events have continued as before, and the effects of the supply shortage in the capital have been minimal. Although more than 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, the government has avoided recruiting many people from Moscow or St. Petersburg. prefer taking its principle nourishment from the Russian imperial estate.
But Putin can no longer convince Muscovites to think that his war is not involved. Earlier this month, the annual parade commemorating Germany’s defeat in World War II was surprisingly short and lacked much of the usual military equipment, because the Russian dictator was too afraid of Ukrainian drone strikes. A week later, Ukraine fired hundreds of drones and cruise missiles at the Russian capital. The action, in response to a major Russian attack on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities two days ago, showed that many air defense lines near Moscow have been completely compromised. The narrative that Putin has created—about a “special military operation” that needn’t trouble Russia’s elite or middle class—is now completely falling apart. Any notion that Moscow itself could stay out of the war has disappeared.
In armed conflict between nations, a major shift in momentum occurs when one of the belligerents loses control of events—when its rulers can no longer convincingly tell themselves or their public that their side is on the cusp of victory. Although the 1968 Tet Offensive by North Vietnam and the Vietcong was a military failure, attacks throughout the length and breadth of South Vietnam led many Americans to conclude that American efforts to support the Saigon government were doomed.
The most important historical parallel involves Japan during World War II. From the attack on Pearl Harbor onward, Japanese domestic propaganda portrayed the country’s early victories as more decisive than they had and repeatedly assured the public that the country was winning its war with the United States. The sound continued even after the Battle of Midway in June 1942, when American forces stopped and began to push back Japanese territorial advances. In the engagement, Japan lost four large aircraft carriers; The US lost one.
Despite this major disruption, the Japanese authorities continued to tell the country’s population that the war was going well. They concocted a monstrous lie, claiming that Japan had sunk two American aircraft carriers at Midway and lost only one of its own. Military leaders went to great lengths to hide the truth, even keeping the wounded sailors in the sidelines for a long time afterwards.
However, in June 1944, that feat could not continue as the United States moved to capture the Mariana Islands—a campaign whose success would put Japan in the middle of the bombing of the B-29 Superfortress, then America’s newest technological bomber. Japan focused its remaining strength on the struggle to hold the islands. But it failed in the Battle of the Philippine Sea—which came to be known as the Mariana Turkey Shootout because of America’s declining success. In the Battle of Saipan, the Battle of Tinian, and the Battle of Guam, the United States took control of strategically important islands. The victory meant that Tokyo would soon come under direct air attack. The Japanese government had no choice but to tell the truth: The war was not going as well as it had been portrayed and it would soon get worse.
All nations face economic and logistical constraints, and even authoritarian systems have their own internal politics. The loss of the Marianas brought down Japan’s military prime minister Hideki Tojo and emboldened moderates within the country’s elite.
How news of Ukraine’s escalation—and Moscow’s exposure to future attacks—will change public opinion in Russia is difficult to judge, not least because of censorship. To keep people ignorant, Putin’s government has tightened restrictions on Internet use. But in recent days, videos have gone viral of Russians expressing shock at the danger in their capital. Russian newspapers have had to write stories about Ukrainian power. One even is known to the drone attack as “brave.”
Ukraine has previously struggled to deploy accurate long-range weapon systems but now appears to be improving its targeting and production capabilities. In the anti-Moscow strike, Ukrainian systems undoubtedly hit several strategic targets: an electronic component factory, oil infrastructure, and other facilities. Even Moscow’s main airport was temporarily closed because of the attack. Having penetrated Moscow’s fortifications once, Ukraine is about to do it again. President Volodymyr Zelensky is there indicate the amount.
If Zelensky is right, Putin will have to be more honest with the Russian people about the tragedy he has brought upon them. More than four years into what should have been a three-day campaign, Russia is not on a winning streak.
None of this means that Russia will fold immediately. His forces continue to carry out deadly attacks in Ukrainian cities. Putin has repeatedly hinted at using Russia’s nuclear weapons, only to be beaten down by his most powerful ally, Chinese President Xi Jinping, but he is back. to make noise about such an increase.
But the basic dynamics of war seem to have changed. Russia is weakened. Even without the help of the United States, Ukraine appears to be strong and, more and more, is creating war on its own behalf. The more the Russian people understand this, the worse Putin’s situation becomes.
