“When oil prices go up, we make more money,” US President Donald Trump wrote recently. The rise in oil prices, fueled by the escalation of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, may seem attractive not only to Washington but also to small oil exporting countries that want to benefit now. As the price of Brent crude oil reached $100 per barreleconomic incentives to expand production are strengthening in the international market.
Colombia’s oil phase-out plan and the broader energy transition agenda were already internationally important. Can the country withstand the short-term lure of hidden profits from oil sales, especially now, and maintain the political space needed to plan and build a post-oil economy?
During the 2022 presidential campaign, President Gustavo Petro made the energy transition a central pillar of his platform, promising to end the issuance of new oil and gas exploration licenses, suspend two planned pilot projects, and prevent the exploitation of unconventional hydrocarbon deposits. These commitments marked a clear break with Colombia’s traditional development model, which the country had followed since the mid-1980s, when it significantly increased production and became an oil exporter.
There is still a structural tension at the heart of Colombia’s transition strategy: While the country can claim leadership for advancing ambitions in the low-carbon transition, its economy remains deeply connected to increasingly volatile global oil markets. Furthermore, moving away from the extractive model is an inherently long-term project. If Petro is constitutionally barred from running for office again, the presidential election scheduled for May will be an important moment for this bold attempt.
Following Peter’s election, his administration gave a National Development Plan for 2022-2026 (called: “Colombia, the World’s Life Force,” or “Colombia, the World Authority for Life”), which lays out a road map for the transition to energy justice. This plan prioritizes accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, combating environmental crime, and promoting the use of zero and low-cost vehicles. It positioned Colombia as a climate change leader, although it leads in climate change experiments in climate change experiments. geographic energy environment Since the adoption of the plan more than three years ago, the share of renewable energy in Colombia’s electricity mix has increased from 2 to 16 percent.
But Colombia finds itself in a strange situation. In 2024, more than 75 percent of all energy needs in Colombia were met through fossil fuels. Of that energy, oil accounted for more than 40 percent, followed by natural gas and coal. Colombia remains a major exporter of oil and coal, which continues to bolster foreign earnings and financial income, including 10 percent of GDP and 45 percent of total exports in 2024.
A controversial pillar of Petro’s energy agenda has been a promise to stop issuing new oil and gas exploration licenses. The 2022 pledge has been one of the most volatile political aspects of the transition. Although the existing fields would continue to operate, the commitment challenges the long-term fundamentals of economic growth, fiscal revenue and energy security.
Not surprisingly, the policy has led to a strong internal push, including fighting within Peter’s own cabinet. Critics within the government have repeatedly warned that oil sales play an important role in the stability of Colombia’s macroeconomics, supporting foreign exchange earnings, public finances, and social spending.
Which brings us to politics. Among the main candidates to succeed Petro is Iván Cepeda, who is widely seen as aligned with the left-wing Historical Convention, the coalition that brought Petro to power. Analysts widely describe Cepeda as the most likely candidate to continue Petro’s project, stressing the continuity of progressive priorities. In contrast, the main contender, Abelardo de la Espriella, founder of the pro-democracy movement Defensores de la Patria and popularly known as “El Tigre,” has a narrow lead in latest polls. Running as a conservative right-wing candidate with a platform focused on security and a free-market economy, he is believed to be less likely to advance Colombia’s oil freeze agenda.
During the parliamentary elections of March 8, the Historical Convention emerged as the largest bloc but failed to secure a majority in Congress. These fragmented results mean that sustaining major political reforms will be even more challenging. It could also hamper progress on the energy transition, which will require building broad legal coalitions to pass new regulatory changes. In addition to domestic political leadership, Colombia will need significant international investment to deliver its transition agenda. An estimated $40 billion is needed over the next decade, as outlined in its energy and economic transformation plans. These investments are intended to increase renewable energy and other green sectors and replace revenues that are currently generated from oil and gas.
Global investment in clean energy is starting to come in, although it has not yet reached the desired level. For example, after the initial round of 100 million dollars was released in July 2025, the organization for international cooperation and development of European Investment Bankand Enel Colombia SA, part of the Enel Group, announced a new $200 million loan in November to finance two new solar projects in the Atlántico region of Colombia to provide renewable electricity to 1.5 million people.
This investment supports new government initiatives such as “Colombia Solar” program, a national strategy announced in September and designed to accelerate a just energy transition by turning existing energy subsidies into sustainable investments in solar technology. Instead of subsidizing traditional electricity costs, the policy aims to deliver solar panels and related equipment directly to households, especially in low-income classes.
Expanding solar power at the scale and pace that Colombia needs will certainly depend on it deep trade and investment relations with Chinagiven its central role in supplying affordable solar panels, batteries, and related clean energy technologies. In May 2025, Colombia officially register for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, following a bilateral meeting between President Xi Jinping of China and Petro during Petro’s visit to Beijing.
For China, close ties with Colombia provide access to new export markets as it aggressively seeks to increase overseas exports of solar and wind energy technology, batteries, and electric vehicles amid tough business conditions in Europe and North America. For Colombia, cooperation under the program is designed as a way to attract investment and technology to support its energy transition agenda, accelerating the deployment of renewable energy and clean transportation infrastructure while reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
At the international level, Colombia has emerged as a leading voice in international climate diplomacy and has positioned itself as a bridge between climate-affected countries and reform-minded producers. In February, Colombia joined the International Energy Agency as 33 member states. This diplomatic stance has raised Colombia’s profile as a standard in climate and energy governance.
Therefore, Colombia will host a high-level international the meeting on running out of oil this spring, jointly organized by the Netherlands in April. It will bring into sharper focus the global political divide that has affected the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process as countries grapple with the need to phase out fossil fuels while experiencing intense geopolitical competition.
The conference marks a deliberate shift to take on one of the most controversial climate debates outside of the UNFCCC, where open discussion of fossil fuel phasing out has often been sidelined. At COP30, the reference to ending fossil energy was again stripped from text discussed, despite more than 80 countries supporting the creation of a road map to the end. The results reinforced the feeling that the UN climate process is getting tougher on this issue. The plan between Colombia and the Netherlands represents a political solution and an attempt at diplomatic resolution. The plan was also approved by the Brazilian presidency at the last COP30 meeting (perhaps in recognition that Brazil did not succeed as expected).
By early 2026, a growing group of about 18 nation states have officially endorsed and are pushing for Fossil Fuel Cessation. Contractincluding several Pacific island countries, Colombia, Antigua and Barbuda, Pakistan, and Cambodia, to create an economic regime and network of countries working together, facilitating investment and technology.
The main uncertainty is if the US tries to undermine it the summit, using tactics already seen in 2025 such as diplomatic pressure and threats of trade repercussions against more ambitious countries.
The upcoming fossil fuel divestment conference carries significant symbolic weight in this geopolitical moment. Against the backdrop of resurgent and confrontational oil politics that mark the new nationalism of resources, the summit needs to signal that a growing group of countries is not backing down from climate ambitions under pressure.
The only sign will be not enough. For the end-to-end agenda to endure, the conference must also show how climate leadership can translate into tangible economic benefits, such as lower energy costs and new job creation. This means demonstrating effective business and investment partnerships on clean technology deployment, soft finance, industrial policy, and fair transition mechanisms.
Inside, too, moral statements are not enough. The sustainability of Colombia’s position on fossil fuels will depend on domestic political alliances as well as the full support of the international community. This means moving beyond rhetoric to concrete action: increasing green investment through concessional finance, ensuring duty-free market access for low-carbon exports, and supporting transitional financial strategies to replace hydrocarbon revenues.
The key question is how to protect climate-friendly countries from punitive trade tariffs or other financial consequences. If Colombia is left isolated, its attempt may be politically unsustainable. This could send an alarming signal to other producer countries that are thinking the same way.
But if supported by coordinated international assistance, Colombia can be proof that climate leadership goes hand in hand with economic stability, good governance, and independence in an increasingly fragile geopolitical environment. This environment has been caused not only by intense competition for power but also by the resurgence of oil politics amid conflicts such as the escalating war in the Middle East.
