As the US-Israel war against Iran enters its second month, Tehran seems to have finally thrown its left hook.
Late last week, Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen joined the war (after weeks of threats to do so) ineffectively missile attack southern Israel. Experts warn that the Houthi’s greater involvement in the war could upend already-frazzled energy markets and further stress the US military, which is preparing for possible action against Iran itself. The biggest threat is that the Houthis could return to their previous attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, which has become the only safe route for trapped oil flows that cannot leave the Persian Gulf.
As the US-Israel war against Iran enters its second month, Tehran seems to have finally thrown its left hook.
Late last week, Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen joined the war (after weeks of threats to do so) ineffectively missile attack southern Israel. Experts warn that the Houthi’s greater involvement in the war could upend already-frazzled energy markets and further stress the US military, which is preparing for possible action against Iran itself. The biggest threat is that the Houthis could return to their previous attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, which has become the only safe route for trapped oil flows that cannot leave the Persian Gulf.
“Houthi involvement represents a major and potentially dangerous development – even if it is still symbolic at this point,” said Maged al-Madhaji, chairman and co-founder of the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, a think tank in Yemen. “If the risks facing Tehran increase, the Houthis will significantly increase their involvement, possibly moving directly to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and disrupting the flow of energy through the Red Sea.”
The issue of Houthi involvement has ultimately stalled the war since it began on February 28. For years, Iran has been supporting, arming, and using the Houthis as its main proxy operating in the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula. At times, the Houthis fought with neighboring Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional rival. At times, the Houthis have used their territory to threaten shipping that passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a small chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, and the natural route for all shipping through the Suez Canal. Between 2023 and 2025, during the war between Israel and Gaza, the Houthis all blocked ships in the Red Sea with sporadic attacks, despite heavy attacks. US Marines and air bombing Houthi positions.
But during this war, the Houthis have been remarkably quiet. In recent days, however, Houthi spokesmen have said that while Iran is facing greater pressure – such as thousands of US ground troops massing in the region for possible attack on Iranian soil—for the group to enter the war.
The question now is whether the start of Houthi participation is an indication of a two-pronged attack on the world’s energy flow or if it is just a way to keep one of the group’s sponsors, Iran.
Since 2022, the Houthis have avoided direct confrontation with Saudi Arabia; despite the stalled talks, Houthi officials still hope that Riyadh will provide financial support to the rump state that the Houthis control in northwestern Yemen. But Iran’s siren sounded louder.
“Ultimately, in decisive moments, the Houthis are more likely to unite with their main strategic partner in Tehran, given Iran’s central role in their political, military and security development, as well as their broad ideological convergence,” Madhaji said. “Targeting Saudi assets, oil tankers, or even international shipping is the next step up the ladder, especially if the United States takes major actions such as striking Iran’s energy infrastructure, forcibly controlling or reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or targeting key areas like Kharg Island.”
US President Donald Trump threatened specifically that in a social media post on Monday. “Great progress has been made but, if for whatever reason an agreement is not reached soon, which it probably will be, and if the Strait of Hormuz is not ‘Open for Business’ immediately, we will end our pleasant ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely destroying all their Power Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and maybe all the desalination plants still deliberately untouched!”).
While the Houthis have not been involved in Iran’s war over the past month, the group has been busy with its residence. Middle East Conference he noted that the Houthis have been moving towards rival-held territory on the south-west coast, which, if occupied, would give them the upper hand and the option to launch further attacks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis did not carry out such coastal raids even during their two-year campaign against Red Sea shipping.
Greater Houthi involvement, and especially the threat to Bab el-Mandeb, is particularly alarming because that stream has been one of Iran’s untapped routes. hard choke in the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the start of the recent war with Iran, Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the region, has been be redirected nearly 5 million barrels a day—half of its production—cross the peninsula to oil terminals on the Red Sea. That means that the Hormuz conflict has trapped only 10 million barrels of oil per day, instead of the full 15 million barrels per day. If the Houthis go all in, surely no oil tankers will go to Asian economies that are already facing an energy crisis. Even the threat of entry could scare off exporters with oil prices rising above the current $115 a barrel.
“Houthis do not have to close Bab el-Mandeb to affect energy markets,” Madhaji said. “Even small or occasional disturbances in the Red Sea can have a significant impact on the energy market, especially given the current state of affairs.”
More than a month after the war, America’s goals have not yet been achieved, possible missions it is increaseand the enemies are increasing, along with the challenges they bring. For the Trump administration, finding a way to restore and ensure the free flow of energy has gone from sideshow to solo show—but no solution is in sight.
