President Donald Trump’s quick turnaround on Iran — from “the whole civilization is going to die tonight” to a return to negotiations — has the world full of whips scratching their heads. What was he doing?
One possibility: Many Western analysts believe that Russia’s nuclear doctrine includes an idea called “rise to fall,” where Moscow would use a tactical nuclear weapon early in a conflict to shock a powerful adversary into joining a conventional conflict.” (The Russians deny this strategy exists.)
On Tuesday, Trump may have executed a sort of Social Reality version of “escalation to decline,” ratcheting up rhetoric and threats at a fever pitch to withdraw from a war in which the United States enjoyed a significant military advantage, but found itself at a strategic disadvantage.
Nuclear use was never in play, but given Trump’s rhetoric — and the size of America’s military power — the comparison doesn’t feel harsh. After Trump threats to destroy “the whole civilization” On Tuesday morning, speculation about how far he would go reached a point where the White House had to deny reports that it was. planning to use nuclear weapons. Some of Trump’s former supporters accused him of intimidation”genocide.”
Did the trick really work? The Russian version is expected to find a powerful enemy to fall back on. In this case, it is not known to what extent the enemy has surrendered.
Later tick reports may later reveal how far Trump was thinking of going, and how close he came to carrying out his threat. But for now, what we can say is that the rapid increase in rhetoric – and some real attacks and the US and Israel on Iran’s rail and oil infrastructure – served as a framing device, allowing Trump to take an exit that is likely already available to him, and present it as a response to his threats.
According to Trump’s Social Truth statement, published about an hour and a half before his announced deadline, his decision to agree to a two-week ceasefire with Iran came at the urging of the government of Pakistan, which has been acting as a mediator between the two sides. Trump said that the 10-point proposal received from the Iranian side is enough to serve as a basis for negotiations. The proposal was received yesterday, before Trump’s strong threats. The Iranian government has also said it accepts the ceasefire.
As reported by the New York TimesIran’s proposal includes guarantees that Iran will not be attacked again, an end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the lifting of sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. It does not include Iran surrendering its remaining uranium stockpile or halting future enrichment, which have been key US demands at various points in this conflict.
Foreign Minister of Iran Iran has said it will allow safe passage through the Strait for two weeks for international ships, as long as they cooperate with the Iranian military. Tehran, for its part, is portraying Trump’s announcement as a complete victory, saying Trump fully accepted his termsalthough it is fundamentally impossible to imagine the United States actually agreeing to terms that would give Iran carte blanche to develop a nuclear bomb.
It is also difficult to imagine that the result that the Iranian regime still exists, and Iran retains its reserves, would be considered a victory for the United States in the early days of this war, when Iran’s air defense proved a complete failure to prevent the United States and Israel from destroying its infrastructure and killing its leaders. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz changed the strategic balance in the conflict, effectively arming the world economy and giving Tehran a new and powerful source of leverage even as it continues to absorb the blows. Even if it reopens the Strait now, it will retain the threat of closing it again, which may be a simpler and better deterrent than its missiles and proxies.
But Iran is in a dangerous situation as well; its defenses are greatly reduced, its top ranks are reduced by targeted strikes, and more vulnerable than ever due to challenges from outside and inside. Israeli experts and officials always suspected that the war would continue as long as Trump allowed it, and are probably content for now with the damage they have caused the missiles and Iran’s economy.
Instead of a clear victory that some would have liked, or a certain reduction, this could turn out to be another part of another strategy, more familiar in the recent history of the Middle East: “to cut the grass.”
