Eearly this morningWith Asian markets down and oil tankers idled in the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump offered Iran’s leaders a familiar mix of threats and relief. What was, just days ago, a 48-hour ultimatum – to reopen the strait or face the destruction of energy infrastructure – has been softened into something more of a stretch: a five-day extension to what he described as “good and productive” talks with Tehran.
The scope of the talks was not immediately clear, although Trump suggested as he left Palm Beach this morning that he and “the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is” should control Strait of Hormuzwhere one fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. He was proud of the “main points of the agreement” and assured reporters that Iran, like the United States, wants “very much to make a deal.” Otherwise, he added, “we’ll just keep beating our little hearts out.”
It was, according to him, progress. According to Tehran, it was a myth.
The gap between Trump’s claims and Iran’s flat denials underscores how little control either side has over the conflict—or its narrative. The White House is trying to contain a major military confrontation with an undefined exit strategy—a confrontation that is spooking markets. With military offensives failing to reopen the waterway and allies worried about an escalating conflict, the administration is facing the limits of unilateral action.
Three foreign officials familiar with U.S. efforts told us that Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, has reached out to the Iranian government through Pakistan and other regional mediators in an effort to get the embattled regime to agree to demands regarding its nuclear program and uranium enrichment efforts. They said that the United States presented a 15-point plan—based on a 15-point proposal presented to the Iranian government last year—to give the weak regime a chance to accept and save itself. more bomb. These leaders, like others we spoke to, did so on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.
Vice President Vance spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today about efforts to restart talks with Iran, a person with knowledge of the discussions told us. Vance, whose long-standing separatist views have put him at odds with some in the administration
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told us in a statement that the situation is volatile and that “any rumors about meetings should not be considered final until they are officially announced by the White House.” He added that the administration would not discuss the dispute “through the media.” Iranian officials insist there are no talks. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Speaker of Parliament, dismissed Trump’s claims like market manipulation—an attempt, he said, to “escape the abyss” and reassure oil traders threatened by the closure of the channel.
The result is a stalled battle between ascension and departure, its terms of victory as unclear now as they were at first.
Trump assistants were they had previously urged him, advisers have told us, not to make any pronouncements or deadlines that the United States would have difficulty enforcing — guidelines he followed for a while, even as his threats against Tehran became more belligerent. But the president was confused late last week when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and refused to reopen it, even under intense attacks from the United States and Israel.
The closure of the Strait sent oil prices soaring and stock markets down, and rattled Republicans facing close elections this fall. (Trump has often considered the stock market index the most important measure of presidential success.) By Saturday, Trump was expressing anger that NATO allies had refused to help deal with the situation—and that he had received criticism and negative press for declaring that he was happy that Robert Mueller had died, two advisers who knew the president’s thoughts over the weekend told us. That night, Trump issued his final 48-hour statement on Iran.
But Iran showed no signs of wavering, and some of Trump’s advisers and US allies in the region warned that destroying Iran’s energy infrastructure would be a mistake, one of those advisers and two other people familiar with the talks told us. US allies and experts warned that such a strike could prompt Iran to attack its neighbors with much of its remaining weapons.
And yet, there will be no guarantee that the strait can be reopened quickly. Allies also warned that extensive damage to Iran’s infrastructure could lead to a failed state at the end of the war, which could lead to a refugee crisis and a dangerous breeding ground for terrorism and violence.
Since at the end of last monthwhile US and Israeli strikes have killed many of Iran’s senior leaders, the military campaign has moved quickly (but not smoothly) toward some of the regime’s perceived goals. US forces have attacked missile sites, naval assets, and fortified areas on Iran’s southern coast near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has said that the bombing of Kharg Islandthe center of Iran’s energy infrastructure, it completely destroyed the island’s military sites, though fuel equipment were clearly untouched.
That strait, effectively closed by threats of Iranian mines, drones, and attacks on ships, has proved more difficult to reopen than threatened. Shipping traffic has decreased. Insurance costs have gone up.
Trump is known to pay close attention to financial markets, and he announced a five-day extension just as Wall Street opened this morning. Markets immediately rose, and oil prices fell. The president acknowledged the relationship with reporters immediately after. “The price of oil will drop like a rock as soon as the contract is completed,” he said. “I think it’s already today.”
One former administration official told us that even the prospect of resuming negotiations is enough to give Trump the insurance to extend his stay. It has also bought the president more time to consider whether he wants to send ground troops to the area, perhaps a strike force to capture Kharg Island. Such an operation—pushed both publicly and privately by allies such as Sen. Lindsey Graham—could force Iran to relinquish control of the sea, but it would also come at a cost: The fighting would be intense, and Trump has expressed reluctance to risk too many American casualties.
Allies, too, have been reluctant to resort to force to reopen the channel. European and Indo-Pacific allies—Japan, Australia, and several NATO nations—have resisted direct military involvement, instead encouraging diplomacy or small-scale escort missions through the strait. The union that Trump once envisioned has not materialized.
Against this background, the president’s message has become more progressive. On Social Reality, Trump has alternated between declaring a major victory and calling on other nations to take responsibility for the safety of the ocean. His suggestion today that the passage could soon be reopened under US-Iranian supervision has no confirmation from Tehran. The strikes threatened on Iran’s power grid—once imminent—have been paused, not canceled, and made contingent on diplomatic momentum that one side insists exists and the other denies outright. Meanwhile, the fighting continues, with no apparent end in sight.
