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PAGASA says ENSO neutrality likely to continue until June-July-August 2026
MANILA, Philippines – Overview 2025-2026 A girl period has ended in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the Philippine weather office announced on Monday, March 9.
Conditions have already returned to ENSO-neutral, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation, which the World Meteorological Organization defines as “a recurring natural phenomenon characterized by fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, as well as changes in the atmosphere.” It has three phases: El Niño or warm phase, La Niña or cold phase, and neutral.
The recently concluded La Niña period began in late 2025 and was characterized as weak. In the Philippines, La Niña usually causes abnormal rainfall.
PAGASA said in a statement on Monday that the ENSO neutrality is likely to continue until the June-July-August 2026 season.
The Bureau of Meteorology warned the public, however, that “other weather and climate systems may still affect the distribution of rainfall in the country” despite the end of La Niña.
Possible sources of rain in the next six months, or from March to August, include northeast monsoon or north, east, shear line, localized thunderstorms, tropical convergence zone, low pressure areas, tropical cyclonesand southwest monsoon or southwest which usually starts in the second half of May or the first half of June.
Six to 14 tropical cyclones are expected to form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility from March to August.
Based on PAGASA data from 1948 to 2024, July, August, and September are the months with the highest frequency of tropical cyclones, with 3.2, 3.0, and 3.1 typhoons respectively.
But before the regular rains, the Philippines will soon have to deal with extreme heat. The northeast monsoon is already on its way down, which would mean the end of the cold and dry season. The beginning of the hot and dry season or tag-init It is expected to be announced in March.
In 2025, PAGASA had announced the beginning of the hot and dry season on March 26. – Rappler.com
