David Rundell
London/Dubai: In the arid heart of the Arabian Peninsula, where extreme temperatures and little rain define the landscape, water is not just a resource; it is the linchpin of survival.
The six member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman – rely heavily on desalination plants to quench their thirst. These facilities, which convert seawater into potable materials, provide plenty of drinking water for residents who have voted in the midst of oil-based prosperity.
However, as the conflict with Iran escalates, this infrastructure is emerging as a major strategic riskwhich may be more important than the region’s oil and gas fields, refineries and export terminals.
Iran’s ability to attack GCC desalination plants, whether with missiles, drones, small groups of boats or cyber attacks, poses an existential threat to these six Arab states. Unlike the GCC states, Iran draws most of its water from rivers, reservoirs and aquifers, with desalination accounting for about 2 percent of its supply.
While Tehran can tolerate disruptions to its small desalination operations, the GCC states could face rapid social collapse without them. Recent events, including the alleged plant strike in Bahrain and Iran’s Qeshm Islandit highlights how water, not petroleum, could be the main battleground in any protracted war in the Gulf.
GCC dependence on desalination is high, reflecting each country’s geography and development direction. Saudi Arabia, a regional powerhouse, gets about 70 percent of its drinking water from treated sources. In some cities, the number is close to 90 percent.
The United Arab Emirates, including the metropolitan areas of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, relies on desalination for about 42 percent of its drinking water. Kuwait, choked by the desert and lacking natural fresh water, gets 90 percent from these plants.
Bahrain, the smallest member of the GCC, relies on desalination for about 60 percent, although some estimates push this up to 95 percent in urban areas.
Qatar, host to most liquefied natural gas operations, gets between 75 and 90 percent – almost fully operationally reliable. Oman, with its harsh terrain, gets about 86 percent of its water from desalination. Together, the GCC produces 40 percent of the world’s freshwater, operating more than 400 plants that transform the salty Persian Gulf into a lifeline.
This effect is due to decades of rapid urbanization and industrialization, fueled by hydrocarbon wealth but constrained by natural conflicts. Underground water storage, once a buffer, is depleting at alarming rates due to over-extraction and climate change.
Desalination has filled the gap, but it comes at a cost: the plant is an energy-hungry behemoth, inextricably linked to the oil and gas industry. In the Gulf, many facilities are located along with power stations, using steam from the combustion of oil for dual-purpose operations. Saudi Arabia alone uses about 300,000 barrels of oil per day to fuel its desalination efforts.
Technologies such as multi-stage distillation and reverse osmosis dominate, with the former relying on thermal energy from gas-fired plants. This interdependence means that the disruption of energy infrastructure – already a target in regional conflicts – could lead to water shortages.
In fact, the Gulf’s economic miracle depends on this tenuous relationship: oil funds the desalination plants, gas power, and the resulting water supply sustains the labor force that supplies both.
Saudi Arabia is an example of stakes. As the largest producer of desalinated water in the world, it produces approximately 11.5 million cubic meters per day, which is more than 4 billion cubic meters annually. However, without this ability, the kingdom’s endurance is very limited.
A water emergency may cause an evacuation
Reserves and pipelines provide a small buffer; a 2008 US diplomatic assessment warned that Riyadh, home to millions, would need to be evacuated within a week if the Jubail plant – which supplies most of the capital’s water – was disabled.
Broad estimates suggest that the entire country can survive for just seven to 14 days on stockpiled supplies before chaos erupts. To replace the lost desalination output, Saudi Arabia would need an incredible amount of water imports: about 11.5 million cubic meters daily, or 4 billion cubic meters annually, assuming full potable and municipal needs.
Accessing such amounts via oil tankers or emergency pipelines from unaffected partners would affect global supply, with costs running into the billions and potential humanitarian disasters.
Iran’s strategic edge lies in its hybrid water portfolio. Although it faces its own shortages due to drought and mismanagement, Tehran relies on surface water and aquifers for most of its supplies, with desalination playing a marginal role. This allows it to target GCC installations with impunity, knowing that retaliation will do little harm while prolonged water outages can devastate cities and destabilize GCC governments.
Mitigation efforts continue: GCC countries are trying to replace their water supply with solar-powered plants and recycle wastewater, while investing in strategic storage reservoirs. Saudi Arabia’s national water strategy aims to increase wastewater use and reduce per capita consumption. However, these efforts still have a long way to go and cannot reduce the risk of the Saudis and their neighbors in the current war.
Water has been used as a weapon many times in the past. Following his 1990 invasion of Kuwait, Iraq flooded the Gulf with Kuwaiti oil creating the largest oil spill in history, which was more than 10 times the size of the Exxon Valdez spill. The intention was to block and shut down Saudi desalination plants.
It was the prompt intervention of Saudi environmental authorities and the US Coast Guard that prevented disaster. As the missiles fly, Gulf leaders must once again face this terrifying reality: in the theater of war, water scarcity may prove a greater danger than oil abundance.
David Rundell served as a US diplomat for 30 years. He is a former chief of mission at the US embassy in Saudi Arabia. Additional contributions by Michael Gfoeller, former US diplomat and political adviser to US Central Command.
Telegraph, London
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