One thing was clear ahead of James Talarico’s victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett in Tuesday night’s Texas Senate primary. This contest would not be about policy or ideology; it will be a choice between two different types of “fighters,” they decided along racist lines.
Talarico, a government representative and seminarian, gave grit combined with Christian compassion — a welcome message to disillusioned moderates and disillusioned Republicans who blamed the country’s problems on the System.
That was contrasted with Crockett’s fiercely confrontational campaign — to put the blame on Donald Trump and Republicans. Crockett believed in mobilizing the base; Talarico planned to expand the tent.
A racially divided Democratic electorate made this decision. Talarico’s victory came with support from white voters, especially college-educated white voters, and strongly from Latinos in Texas, the nation’s newest voters. Crockett’s coalition, meanwhile, counted heavily among Black voters to offset its weak white and Latino support.
The split leaves Talarico with an important task over the next eight months: building trust with Black voters, winning over many moderate Latino voters, and making inroads with conservative white voters, who still make up a large portion of the Texas electorate. It also reveals tensions for Democrats nationally as they head into the primary season: the push and pull between college-educated white voters in their coalition and the majority of black, working-class voters, as well as an additional card of Latino voters.
Race determined on the basis of race
For much of the primary contest, style was the main difference between Talarico’s and Crockett’s campaigns. Both occupied the same position on the ideological spectrum, they did not differ much on substance, but they campaigned very differently.
Early on, Crockett faced criticism for arguing that he did not believe he had to win over Trump supporters to win the general election. “Democrats (of Texas) have tried to talk to every Republican they can to try to get them to come here. It hasn’t worked,” he said. even on the last day of the campaign. “If we can get the base going, we can win.”
His campaign theory was to double down on Black voters, particularly through outreach in Black churches, and appeal to progressive or traditional Latino Democratic voters.
Talarico, meanwhile, was criticized for not being able to hold strong support among Black Texans, relying on white Democrats as his base. And in the final weeks of the competition, racial identity became the biggest score.
Crockett accused Talarico of adding ads that were “outright racist,” and called “dog whistles” from those questioning his chances of being elected. Meanwhile, allies such as former Rep. Colin Allred, a 2024 Senate nominee, blasted Talarico for allegedly referring to him privately as “the average black man,” a charge that Talarico vehemently denied.
Before Tuesday night, the few public polls released showed anything from close races to double-digit leads for each candidate. But the vote counts confirmed these racial trends. Talarico enjoyed double-digit support from white Democrats — more than 20 points per Democratic strategist. Adam Carlson tab aggregator – and he seemed to be gaining on these voters as Election Day approached. Crockett, meanwhile, was sweeping the Black vote, with a 72-point margin in the overall vote.
That left a big open question about how Latino voters would swing. The polls showed Talarico with an average advantage of 8 points, but did not show a sharp break in favor of any candidate.
On Election Day, the bases of both candidates produced votes out: Talarico had the highest margin around his district of Austin, a wealthier, whiter, and more college-educated urban center. He also did great and college-educated white voters in the Houston area. Crockett, meanwhile, was pleased with voters in his home district in the Dallas area, and in Houston – two parts of the state where, together, more than half of Black Texans live.
Complicating all of this was a familiar enemy: voter suppression. Reports came in throughout the day of voters being barred from polling booths because of changes to the way the state ran its elections, particularly in Dallas area. Republicans decided to hold a different primary race this year from Democrats, requiring the switch to primary voting instead of countywide voting — meaning many voters went the wrong way.
But the real surprise of the night came from Latino voters, as polls in parts of Texas with large Latino populations showed a decisive result. In the Rio Grande Valley, in the San Antonio area, in border counties, and within Spanish parts of Houston, Latino-dominated voters overwhelmingly voted for Talarico.
Because of this level of Latino support, the final picture of the Texas map may end up being a very divided picture: with strong support for Crockett in the eastern part of the state, but support for Talarico everywhere.
“This is a unique moment because of the racial background of the candidates. There was no Latino candidate — who would have changed things — and the race was set as a strategy,” Latino vote strategist Mike Madrid told me. “It’s undeniable that (the Crockett campaign and its supporters) were saying we need a few voters to vote as a camp here to get out of this primary.”
Instead, Madrid told me, Latino voters continued to live up to their expectations, not fitting easily into the stereotype of “minority voters” or responding to pleas for solidarity as “voters of color.”
Even after 2020 and 2024, and the Latino voter rights changes that came with it, “there’s still this deep belief among national Democrats, certainly the elite and the elite, and certainly within the Black power structures, that if you’re not white, you’re going to vote like a camp,” Madrid said. The Texas results, at least, suggest that “you can’t understand what’s happening if you examine the cultural pattern of minority voting behavior.”
Talarico now faces the challenge of applying his tentpole expansion theory before the general election, where he will most likely face off against Texas state attorney general Ken Paxton, who will run against Texas senator John Cornyn. The theoretical Talarico-Paxton tie polls before the primary reflected the actual race — something that would be unusual in the state. Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024 — improving his margins in part because Latino voters continued to abandon Democrats.
Now, national polls suggest that this Latino support may shift away from Trump and the Republicans again — creating a new proving ground for Talarico’s campaign strategy. And if his style of reaching out to voters pans out, Democrats may actually get to dream of turning Texas blue.
