The College Awards Guide is a fun, satirical, and multi-month series. It also encourages something important to the Hollywood artistic system: Film studios, in the hope of Oscar glory, put money into more challenging projects, instead of always aiming for the usual box office category. But as the ceremony itself approaches, I find myself despair to get it over with—especially in a year like this, when the Winter Olympics have pushed the Oscars into mid-March, extending what already feels like an endless series of pre-ceremony events. My main message after this award song: Please hold the Oscars early next year.
My boredom with awards season itself, however, is tempered by my appreciation of film—2025 was an exciting year for cinema; the two best Picture contestants (One Battle After Another and Sinners) generated considerable interest in a time filled with industry drama and the politics of corporate mergers. One War has enjoyed much praise since its release in September, but Sinners-which was in theaters almost a year ago – has never faded from the conversation. The result is some down-to-the-wire racing in several major categories.
Here are my final predictions for who will—and who should—take home this year’s “big eight” awards, ahead of Sunday’s ceremony. Conan O’Brien returns as the anchor, with coverage beginning on ABC and Hulu at 7 p.m. eastern time.
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (HamnetRose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (The Song That Sings Blue), Renate Reinsve (Emotional valueEmma Stone (Bugonia)
This trophy has been Jessie Buckley’s to lose ever since Hamnet premiered at the Telluride Film Festival in August. A Best Picture nominee, the period romantic drama seems most likely to be recognized in this category, and Buckley is the perfect example of a rising star that the Academy loves to reward. It helps him to work inside Hamnet it is very powerful: heavy, steeped in personal tragedy, and deeply felt. My favorite performance of the year was Rose Byrne’s motherly portrayal If I Had Legs I’d Kick Youbut the film has a very high probability for him to win. The award belongs to Buckley, he feelings about cats however.
Who Will Win?: Jessie Buckley
Who Should Win: Rose Byrne
Best Actor
Nominees: Timothy Chalamet (Marty KuuLeonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (Secret Agent)
This might be the strongest category of the night, featuring a powerhouse lineup of five strong performers. This choice seems to have come from two undisputed Hollywood stars: Timothée Chalamet of Marty Kuu and Michael B. Jordan of Sinners. Both actors are newcomers to the A-list, and are equally committed to working with up-and-coming artists (Josh Safdie and Ryan Coogler, respectively); Chalamet and Jordan’s situation helped shape the directors’ early features. Each of them gave a masterful performance—Chalamet was loud a mixture of comedy and suspense; Jordan sporting twins, one straight-wired beauty and the other smoldering. Awards prognosticators long thought Chalamet was ahead; he almost took home an Oscar last year for a Bob Dylan biopic Complete Unknownand muscles Marty Kuu for box-office success through him unusual advertising technique. But the momentum has shifted to Jordan in recent weeks, thanks to her low impact on the red carpet and a triumphant performance at the Actress Awards earlier this month. Will that be enough? I’m leaning towards yes. However, the darkest horse of all is Wagner Moura, who was superb in Brazil’s thriller. Secret Agent. He gave a remarkable turn as a sadistic political dissident, for which he collected a surprise Golden Globe, and the film itself is given four awards – suggesting its popularity especially among international voters.
Who Will Win: Michael B. Jordan
Who Should Win: Wagner Moura
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Emotional value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Emotional value), Amy Madigan (Arms), Wunmi Mosaku (SinnersTeyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
This is another close contest, the winner of which can be considered an early indication of the Academy’s preference for Best Picture. Teyana Taylor is lightning in the first act One Battle After Another as a character who it raises the stakes surprisinglyand her Golden Globes speech highlighted this awards season. Wunmi Mosaku’s performance as the divorced wife of one of the twins Sinners It is more silent, but, like Taylor, he is a movie engine of emotions; he also won a BAFTA for Supporting Actor, and the voting body has a lot of interaction with the Academy. Still, the leader seems to be Amy Madigan, who delivers the horror film’s terrifying punch Arms‘ the third act. . Twice in a Lifetime. I will predict Madigan, but relative stupidity Arms could stop him—where Taylor and Mosaku would both be very viable options.
Who Will Win: Amy Madigan
Who Should Win: Teyana Taylor
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After AnotherStellan Skarsgård (Emotional value)
This category has seen many twists and turns over the many months of awards season. My personal favorite, the quiet Benicio del Toro, won many critics’ awards for his performance as the intellectual revolutionary. One Battle After Another. Of Jacob Elordi sensitive take on Frankenstein’s monster, meanwhile, he received the Critics’ Choice Award, and Stellan Skarsgård took the Golden Globe. Delroy Lindo was an interesting and unpredictable addition, earning his first career selection after not showing up in the draft tournament. But Sean Penn has had all the momentum of late, which he picked up after winning the BAFTA and Actor Award. He plays the tyrannical, sadistic criminal Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw One Wara bold role that could earn Penn his third Oscar—but if voters think he’s received enough blooms over the years, I think they’ll choose Skarsgård, as something of a career recognition.
Who Will Win: Sean Penn
Who Should Win: Benicio del Toro
Best Original Screen Actor
Nominees: Robert Kaplow (Blue Moon); Jafar Panahi, Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian (It was just an accident); Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (Marty Kuu); Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (Emotional value); Ryan Cooler (Sinners)
Sinners it might end up as the runner-up for Best Picture (at least that’s what the betting odds suggest), but it’s the front-runner for this award. Coogler is poised to take home his first Oscar in what promises to be a storied Hollywood career. A potential spoiler could be It was just an accidentdirected and co-written by the respected Iranian composer Jafar Panahi, which criticizes the oppressive regime of his country in a wrong, clever way. But I think the desire to fairly reward Coogler for his achievements will prevail.
Who Will Win: Ryan Cooler
Who Should Win: Ryan Cooler
Modified Best Screenplay
Nominees: Does Tracy (Bugonia), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell (HamnetPaul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (Dream Train)
One War is a unique work of adaptation that uses only the bones of Thomas Pynchon’s novel Vineland-one of the most straightforward tasks for a writer, although not the easiest-to create a gonzo song. Writer-director Paul Thomas Anderson’s film is wild, sometimes laugh-out-loud funny, and sometimes deeply disturbing; it’s also a good old-fashioned family melodrama. Anderson’s masterful blending of such diverse voices probably makes him a showman. The runner-up appears to be Hamnetbut the film received support in all nominations (Buckley’s co-star Paul Mescal missed out), and Chloé Zhao already has two Oscars to her name.
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Director
Nominees: Chloe Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty KuuPaul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Joachim Trier (Emotional valueRyan Coogler (Sinners)
Anderson is the favorite for Adapted Screenplay, but is probably the most shutout for Best Director. He is one of the most highly regarded filmmakers in Hollywood, and has four Best Picture nominations and a total of 14 Oscar nominations. Yet with zero wins, he’s considered obsolete—especially because, as he’s gotten older (and the way the Academy voting has changed), Anderson has grown from an outsider to a more respected figure. He has a similar narrative to that of Christopher Nolan, who won in this category two years ago for Oppenheimer. Coogler is the least likely, but I think Anderson will advance.
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Picture
Nominees: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Kuu, One Battle After Another, Secret Agent, Emotional value, Sinners, Dream Train
One Battle After Another has been the presumed winner since Oscar season began. Anderson’s film has collected a formidable collection of critics’ awards and other trophies that usually suggest a broad support of the industry, including the best prizes from the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, and multiple wins at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes. The only thing that can work against him at this point is the situation—and passion for Sinnersthe heavy hit that took home the biggest nominations at the Oscars this year and seems to be evoking such love at every industry event. Maybe a big disruption is coming, but One War has not been barred from any big prize yet.
Who Will Win: One War After Another
Who Should Win: One War After Another
*Image sources: A24 / Everett; Aspects of Focus / Everett; Neon / Everett; Warner Bros / Everett
