This is a version of The Atlantic Every day, a magazine that guides you through the top stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Register here.
On Friday, after nearly a month of bombing Iran, Donald Trump made a final appearance. US military operations in the country, he said, could “end.” A day later, he turned around, and issued an ultimatum to Iran: If its leaders refuse to lift their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, wiping out most of the world’s oil, “delete” the nation’s energy infrastructure. Then, yesterday morning, another step: Following fruitful diplomatic negotiations, Trump would postpone deadline until Friday. Never mind the fact that Iran has denied that any such talks took place.
The president hasn’t always been clear about what he wants out of this war—or how he plans to reduce it energy crisis has created. At one time, he he suggested that rising oil prices can be a good thing, because “we” can stand to “make more money.” That’s true for oil producers, although it’s not exactly immune to all the negative effects of the global energy shock. But the time of this end and the time of its subsequent postponement are revealing in their own way. Oil futures markets do not trade from Friday to Sunday evening. Because Trump’s threat to Iran came Saturday night, traders had a short buffer—less than a day—to assess the potential impact on prices before trading resumed. And the recovery, which lasts exactly five days, will conclude as the market enters a weekend break.
The continuous rise of the yield of the US Treasury, with the news yesterday morning that Asian markets (which start trading before Western markets) had collapsed after the final decision, probably also contributing to the postponement. John Bolton, who served as Trump’s national security adviser from 2018 to 2019, told. Atlantic that during Trump’s first term, foreign policy announcements were sometimes scheduled around business hours. The calls were made by the president himself and Treasury officials who advised him to do so. Trump’s second term has highlighted how much power the markets seem to have over his decision-making—and other countries may be paying attention.
Intentionally or not, certain military actions in Iran have coincided with the suspension of the weekend market. And Trump has made at least one big decision recently clearly depended on the market’s reaction: Last year’s initial “Redemption Day” tariff announcement, which caused a major stock market rout in Trump’s second term, was deliberately delayed until the end of the trading day, Atlantic the statement confirmed. The president has also enjoyed his power over markets more broadly. My colleague Jonathan Lemire told me that, according to his report, Trump has in the past alerted his aides when he thought an upcoming social media post would get a response from Wall Street—and then watched the ticker move in real time. (“Usually the Administration is in tune with how major policy decisions affect the financial market and the economy, but any implication that the President’s decisions—and timing—are influenced by anything other than the best interests of the American people is baseless and false,” a White House spokesman wrote in a statement. Atlantic.)
It is easy to find a conspiracy about how, exactly, Trump these times steps. After all, not every foreign policy decision can be analyzed in terms of markets alone. The initial attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran were planned to coincide with a meeting of Iran’s top leaders. The meeting was held on Saturday. The duration of Nicolás Maduro’s territorial invasion is reported related to the weather in Caracas in January; Bad cloud cover delayed the capture of the Venezuelan president by a day. Fortunately, then, the clouds cleared on Saturday—energy markets had a chance to learn what the effects of intervention might be before they reacted.
Thomas Wright, and Atlantic contributing writer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told me that while Trump has long been concerned about changes in US Treasury yields (of Barron it went further make a phone call their “kryptonite”), his recent moves have underscored the importance of energy markets in his decision-making. “We have found out in the Iran war that he is also very concerned about the price of oil – which we could gather from what he has said over the years – but I think we have evidence,” he said. Yesterday, Trump seemed to acknowledge the relationship between oil prices and the timing of his policies; after announcing a delay in his ultimatum to Iran, oil prices fell and the stock market rebounded. “The price of oil is going to drop like a rock as soon as the deal is done,” Trump told reporters. “I think it’s already today.”
Iran is likely paying attention to Trump’s market sentiment as well. When the price of oil rose after the start of the war, the consequences were imposed on Americans very quickly: Gasoline went up; the price of jet fuel they’re up there, mixing up what’s going on confusion at US airports; and groceries and other everyday items are set to get more expensive as well. Iran knows it has at least some leverage here. Trump’s willingness to make decisions based on the market is a liability – the more he reacts, the more easily he can be exploited.
Jonathan Lemire and Vivian Salama contributed reporting.
Related:
Here are four new stories from Atlantic:
Today’s news
- Pentagon is preparing to send an elite force from the 82nd Air Force Division to the Middle East, adding to the recent US military presence in the region. Officials say no decision has been made on whether to send troops to Iran.
- The senators said yes is approaching a plan to fund a large portion of the Department of Homeland Securityincluding the TSA, while excluding the agency responsible for the arrest and deportation of immigrants. Political pressure to end the partial shutdown has increased because of major disruptions at airports across the country.
- Minnesota sued the Trump administrationlooking for evidence in the murders of Alex Pretti and Renee Good, who were shot by federal immigration agents. The state claimed that state officials obstructed state investigators.
Evening Read
The Most Urgent Issue for the American Catholic Church Is No Longer Abortion
By Francis X. Rocca
Not long ago, when American Catholic leaders spoke about politics, they tended to be seen as conservative. The prominent policy statements of the US bishops focused on three issues: same-sex marriage, contraception, and—most of all—abortion. Their constant opposition to all three put them at odds not only with the left but also with many Catholics. It even brought tension with Rome.
Since the re-election of Donald Trump, however, the Church in America has been sounding more liberal. His teachings have not changed, but the second term of the president has shifted the attention of the bishops. The most pressing political concern for America’s Catholic leaders is no longer abortion; it’s immigration.
More From Atlantic
Cultural Breakdown
Investigate. New WNBA labor contract represents success in women’s sports history, Jemele Hill writes.
Watch (or skip). The Hail Mary Project (in theaters now) it should be easy to rootDavid Sims argues.
Explore all of our newsletters here.
Rafaela Jinich contributed to this journal.
When you buy a book using a link in this newsletter, we receive a commission. Thank you for your support Atlantic.
