We’re not even three months into 2026, and it’s already approaching the transition year of President Donald Trump’s administration. He successfully ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, sent the United States into war with Iran late last month, and now he may be targeting a new target: Cuba, which he told a reporter last week “it will fall soon.”
To learn more about what might happen — and why Trump is eyeing Cuba in the first place — Today, It’s Explained co-host Noel King spoke with The Atlantic’s Vivian Salama, who recently wrote about the expectations of the Cuban administration.
The following is part of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s more throughout the episode, so tune in Today, It’s Explained wherever you find podcasts, incl Apple Podcasts, Pandoraand Spotify.
Do we know what the Trump administration plans to do in Cuba?
We don’t know. I don’t know if they do, to be honest with you. I think the endgame is obvious to them, which is that they want the post-Castro government now running Cuba gone.
This is part of the president’s master plan to freeze America’s supremacy in the Western Hemisphere. He has spoken about this at length over the past year, as have many within his administration.
It was in his national security strategy. It’s the root of many policies we’ve heard him talk about since he took office for the second time: annexing Greenland, taking over the Panama Canal, even making Canada the 51st state.
Does the president really believe that the post-Castro regime in Cuba poses a threat to American supremacy?
I think the President believes so. I think he has Secretary of State Marco Rubio on his shoulder, who has made it his lifelong mission, to see the end of (the Cuban regime).
Obviously, Secretary Rubio is the grandson of Cuban exiles, and this is something that is deeply rooted not only in his heart, but in the hearts of many people from South Florida, where he is from.
Remember, Cuba is only 90 miles from Key West. That has been a thorn not only for this president, but for seven generations of presidents, Democrats and Republicans alike. In fact, when we’re talking about whether or not this is a matter of preference, it probably didn’t bother anyone more than (Democratic) President John F. Kennedy; The Bay of Pigs was a big problem for his administration.
Many presidents over the past 70 years have tried in one way or another to end the communist regime in Cuba, and President Trump is now on a high thanks to his success in ousting Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and this ongoing effort to end the Iranian regime.
Counselors tell me he feels like he’s on the list. It works. And so Cuba is next on the list.
We see in Iran the dangers of destabilizing the country. Bombs are flying all over the place. Iran is a regional player, and that should be taken into account. But what are the risks that the United States is running in disrupting Cuba?
One of the main risks destabilizing Cuba is, of course, the refugee crisis. People could flee the country by boat, by any other means of transportation. They could try to flood the United States or they could try to go elsewhere.
And the immigration problem, as we know — as the president has reminded us again and again — is already in dire straits. And so adding to that would intensify the law enforcement efforts that are taking place in Central America and the Americas. In fact, (it can) increase the tension on the southern border. And so it is something to consider.
President Trump is talking like this is inevitable. He said, without being asked, “Cuba will fall soon.” So the president seems to be saying, this is inevitable. What do you think?
It certainly feels like this is inevitable. His advisors that I have spoken with tell me that the president feels that things are going well in terms of American operations, but also in terms of their efforts to cut off all the ways of life for Cuba, starting with Venezuela.
He believes that this is suppressing this regime so much that they will either surrender, they will leave voluntarily because they have no other option, or the United States can go in there and (take them out) and it will be a very simple, low-risk operation.
For one of your first questions: Why now? Because they believe that the situation is ripe for regime change in Cuba. They see – among Venezuela, among the momentum that the United States has had – that the time to strike is now.
Vivian, it looks like President Trump is playing the long game here. What long game is he playing?
Finally, the people I talk to at the White House say yes, they are concerned that the president’s focus on some of these overseas activities may eventually come back to haunt the Republicans who are on the ticket this November.
But at the end of the day, I think there’s a feeling, especially among those who defend these military operations, that it’s like ripping off a Band-Aid. You do them as quickly as one-two-three punches, and that way come summer, the president can go there when he’s on the road, on the stump campaigning for some of these people on the ballot, to say, look what the Republicans have given you.
We have given you victory abroad. America is safer now because we did this, and the memory of those military operations, the stress they brought, will be behind them then, and they can focus on domestic issues. Whether that will be successful remains to be seen, but that is the goal they are looking to achieve.
