Welcome again Foreign PolicyStatus Report, where the US-Israel war against Iran is about to enter its fourth week without a breakthrough or expected military aid.
Here’s what’s available for the day: the The American intelligence communitythe latest global threat assessmenta the resignation of a senior US official on Iran wasand a pause for a moment in hostility medium Pakistan and Afghanistan.
“It is not the role of the intelligence community to determine what is a threat and what is not a threat,” US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Congress on Wednesday while testifying on the 2026 intelligence community. annual threat assessment.
The report, in its own words, “reflects the collective knowledge” of the intelligence community and “focuses on direct, serious threats to the United States especially in the coming year.”
Gabbard’s departure came as she faced tough questions from both Democratic and Republican lawmakers about the Trump administration’s justification for war with Iran and the status of Iran’s nuclear program. (Read more about her testimony from our colleague Rachel Oswald here.)
As for the assessment itselfHere’s what it says about America’s main rivals, conflicts and threats in 2026.
Iran. The report says that before Operation Epic Fury—Washington’s nickname for the Iran war—Iran was “intended to try to recover from the destruction of its nuclear infrastructure sustained during the 12-Day War.” That assessment — like Gabbard’s oral testimony to the Senate — differs greatly from prepared speeches which he presented to senators before the hearing, which said that Iran’s nuclear program was “destroyed” through the US strikes in June and that “there has been no effort since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capacity.” This directly contradicts Trump’s reasons for war.
Beyond nuclear concerns, the annual threat assessment says the intelligence community continues to determine how the “US-Israeli-Iran conflict” will affect the global terrorism landscape in the coming year. But it said that “Iran has proven capable of carrying out malicious operations against Americans at home and abroad.” The assessment also says that prior to Operation Epic Fury, Iran had “developed launch vehicles that could be used to develop a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile” by 2035 “if Tehran decides to do so,” according to the Defense Intelligence Agency. report from last year. However, it does not say that Iran had decided to do so.
And while the assessment says that Operation Epic Fury has “definitely reduced Iran’s ability to deliver power,” it emphasizes that Tehran is using all of its remaining capabilities — including advanced ballistic missiles, drones, and regional allies — to retaliate against the United States and its allies “in the hope of creating a crisis.”
Russia. Russia is frequently mentioned in the assessment, focusing mainly on its missile development and the war in Ukraine, which Trump has unsuccessfully tried to end. “The most dangerous threat Russia poses to the United States is an escalation of an ongoing conflict such as Ukraine or a new conflict that leads to direct hostilities, including a nuclear exchange,” the assessment says.
Notably, there is no mention of Russian (or any other) threats of election interference. In previous years—including 2025, Gabbard’s first year as intelligence director—the U.S. intelligence community has repeatedly determined that adversaries, particularly Moscow, were seeking to spread disinformation and question the integrity of the U.S. election system. Yet even in his testimony to the Senate, Gabbard he insisted that so far, the intelligence community has found no evidence of foreign threats to the November midterm elections.
China. While China’s President Xi Jinping and his government will try to “overcome the efforts taken by the United States” and “reduce US military presence and operations on its periphery,” Beijing is also prioritizing “productive and stable economic relations” with Washington and will “try to reduce tensions” as it pursues its interests, the assessment says.
More specifically, the intelligence community “assesses that China’s leaders currently have no plans to launch an invasion of Taiwan in 2027” – an understatement an oft-cited goal for the Chinese army to be ready to take over the island—”nor do they have a specific timetable to reach unification.”
Western world. The assessment puts a strong focus on the United States’ increased attention in its own neighborhood under Trump, devoting its opening section to threats from Latin America – such as illegal drug actors, international gangs, and immigration – ahead of other threats, such as terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.
“Venezuela continues to struggle with many of these movements, but since the arrest of Nicolas Maduro – who led a corrupt and authoritarian government – we have seen the willingness of the Venezuelan Government to cooperate with the United States,” the document says, referring to the US military. January operation invade Venezuela and arrest Maduro.
Other threats identified in the assessment include the dangers posed by cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, as well as Russia and China’s activities in the Arctic region and Pakistan’s conflicts with India and Afghanistan—including Islamabad’s development of ballistic missiles that could “threaten” the United States.
Despite hearing the arguments on Wednesday, His. Markwayne MullinThe nomination for the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security passed the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee by an 8-7 margin, with Democratic Senator John Fetterman casting the tiebreaker. Mullin’s nomination will now be voted on by the full Senate.
Joe Kent, director of the Trump administration’s National Counterterrorism Center, resigned Tuesday, citing his opposition to war in Iran. “Iran was not a threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its strong American influence,” he wrote in the letter. has been published X announcing his resignation.
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Energy attacks are increasing. Iran stepped up its targeting of energy infrastructure in the Middle East on Thursday, with strikes at several oil and gas refineries in Israel and the Arab Gulf countries sparking fears of further rises in high global energy prices. Iran’s attacks escalated after Israel attacked the South Pars gas field on Wednesday – a strike that Trump said the US “knows nothing” about. However, a senior Israeli diplomat told John on Tuesday that Israel is targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure “it was not a surprise” to the Trump administration.
Washington Europe and Asian allies, meanwhile, continue to remain uncommitted to helping reopen and protect the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump’s demands that they do so.
Ukraine’s funding shortfall. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Thursday is blocked proposals for a $100 billion European aid package for Ukraine that he had previously agreed to, out of anger over what he said was Kyiv’s failure to repair a damaged pipeline through Ukraine that supplies Hungary with Russian oil—a charge Ukraine has denied.
Un-Pak Agreement. Pakistan will temporarily suspend its military operations against Afghanistan for five days in observance of the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr, Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced on Wednesday. post on X, adding that Pakistan has taken the decision after requests from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey.
However, he added that any attack or “terrorist incident” from Afghanistan during that period would cause Pakistan’s operations to resume with “new vigor.” The Taliban regime in Afghanistan too he agreed by suspending Eid al-Fitr but it did not give its own time.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi looks at her watch as US President Donald Trump speaks during a bilateral meeting at the White House in Washington on March 19.Alex Wong/Getty Images
Tuesday, March 24: Denmark holds early parliamentary elections.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Canberra.
Preliminary hearing in the case of the spy company Anthropic v. Pentagon.
Thursday, March 26: Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, arrive for a court hearing in New York.
France is hosting a meeting of the Group of 7 Foreign Ministers (G-7).
NATO releases its annual report.
4.5 billion dollars –The total cost of the new Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense systems that the US State Department adoption of emergency sales for the United Arab Emirates on Thursday, including 2.1 billion dollars value of anti-drone systems and upgrades to the F-16 fighter jet worth approx. 650 million dollars. The department also approved additional military sales to Jordan and Kuwait.
“It takes money to kill the bad guys.”
– US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in a press conference Thursday, approving $200 billion in additional funds the Pentagon has reportedly requested from Congress for the Iran war.
