Despite tilting the election game a lot field on his behalf-through excessive espionage, massive use of government resources for partisan purposes, close control of the media, blatant use of fake videos, and allegations purchase of votes—Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party suffered a crushing defeat in the country’s Sunday election.
Orban conceded defeat and congratulated his opponent, Tisza Party Leader Peter Magyarpromising to “serve the nation of Hungary and our country from the opposition as well.” The turnout was higher than in any previous parliamentary election in Hungary since the fall of communism in 1989.
Despite tilting the election game a lot field on his behalf-through excessive espionage, massive use of government resources for partisan purposes, close control of the media, blatant use of fake videos, and allegations purchase of votes—Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party suffered a crushing defeat in the country’s Sunday election.
Orban conceded defeat and congratulated his opponent, Tisza Party Leader Peter Magyarpromising to “serve the nation of Hungary and our country from the opposition as well.” The turnout was higher than in any previous parliamentary election in Hungary since the fall of communism in 1989.
After 16 years of Fidesz rule, what explains this surprising change?
When consolidated, dominant party regimes are ousted, usually as a result of the accumulated mistakes of the incumbent or the misdirection of the opposition. In Hungary, both trends were at play.
Fidesz entered the election burdened with three major debts. First, its recent economic record has been poor. Years of poor financial management, the state of the economyand soil erosion the rule of law left Hungary mired in anemic economic growth, spinning 0.5 percent last year. Increased inflation in 2022 and 2023 which increased 25 percentthe highest in the European Union at the time.
Second, government management of basic public services has been found to be inadequate. State of Hungary health care system is an example: Almost all Hungarians rely on it, but the confusion comes from the deterioration of the hospital infrastructure; the ongoing shortage of doctors and nurses (many of whom have left for Austria, Germany, and elsewhere in the European Union); and long waiting times for service. Hungary has one of the low life expectancy in the EU, more than four years below the average of that group.
Third, corruption is rampant. According to Transparency InternationalHungary is tied for the most corrupt countries in the EU, along with Bulgaria; internationally, it is ranked among the favorite countries of Cuba and Burkina Faso. Reliable steady flow investigative reports explaining the misuse of public resources by officials and their families—including, allegedly, Orban’s father and son-in-law—made it increasingly difficult for Fidesz to oust or defect.
Taken together, these liabilities resulted in a deterioration of the social and economic situation, and the stability that Fidesz once presented had eroded national optimism.
Unable to campaign to improve the quality of life of Hungarians, Fidesz’s campaign was heavily reliant. scarymost of it focused on conspiracy theories about Ukraine. Outlandish claims about Ukraine planning military action against Hungary and financing the opposition replaced any positive campaign message or perceived success.
As libertarians have discovered in other contexts—such as the defeat of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in 2022—over time, voters, especially moderates, tire of constant messages of fear, hatred and insults. Moreover, Orban’s repeated claims to protect Hungary’s sovereignty became increasingly hollow for critics as Hungary became a country. a pawn in Russia’s foreign policy games and a door bed for China’s economic interests.
On the opposition side, Hungarian and its allies succeeded where previous opponents failed by creating a new playbook to counter Fidesz.
First, Magyar avoided the culture wars on pressing issues like immigration and LGBTQ rights and instead focused on delivering a positive message to voters. Magyar (whose last name simply means “Hungarian”) reclaimed patriotism as an inclusive, forward-looking idea, challenging Fidesz on the ground it had traditionally dominated. Realizing voter fatigue and ideological back and forth, he called on Hungarians to believe in more “humanly“Hungary and gave them hope of renewed national pride. He also emphasized corruption, linking it to the obvious governance problems that plague the country’s daily life.
Second, he expanded the geographic reach of the opposition. Abandoning the traditional left-liberal orientation to urban, educated voters, Magyar campaigned extensively outside Budapest, visiting countless small towns and cities to challenge Fidesz in its home turf. He even led a multi-day march to Romania to unite with ethnic Hungarians living there, who have long been a strong supporter of Fidesz.
Third, he showed flexibility in his use of social media. Close out traditional mediaMagyar used Facebook and Instagram to communicate directly with voters. His light but clever posts made Fidesz’s message seem clumsy and old-fashioned. He also showed a knack for anticipating and defusing Fidesz’s smear campaigns, often fending off attacks by his opponents. It is highly viewed in advance video interviewin which he outlined his 2023 break with Fidesz and his criticism of the government, appeared to have negative results – attracting more than 2.5 million views in a country of less than 10 million people.
With surprising strength and determination, Magyar and his team were able to upend the previous competition’s trends—a fact that many observers in the United States, especially in conservative circles, were slow to recognize.
Although Hungary and the United States differ in many respects, their political lives have been linked in a unique way in recent years, with US President Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement worshiping Orban with great desire. cultivated relationship between the two countries conservative political fields. During the campaign, Trump openly supported Orban, twice charity “full and complete approval,” sending US Vice President JD Vance to Budapest shortly before the vote in a last-ditch effort to bolster Fidesz’s flag-waving campaign.
Because of this connection, the Hungarian election provides lessons for the MAGA movement and for the Democrats who plan to run against it.
For Trump and his allies, the results in Hungary underscore the limits of the culture war as a sustainable political strategy for the ruling party. Voters are finally looking beyond reactive messaging for real improvements in their everyday lives. At the same time, corruption—especially when it involves a leader, his family, and his close associates—is a political poison, slow-acting but deadly.
For Trump’s opponents, the lesson is equally clear: They should not be afraid to challenge the populist movement on its home turf of patriotism and nationalism. But candidates will need to embrace new, interesting ideas and campaigns beyond the comfort zone of urban voter strongholds. They should also emphasize non-ideological, hot-button issues, such as corruption and health care costs, which have better benefits than traditional ideological topics. Finally, they must continue to embrace new social media techniques that connect with young voters.
In short, both sides should carefully consider how a strong, self-confident populist movement, which seemed to hold all the political cards, so decisively collapsed—and how the new opposition overcame a style of indolence and division to dominate.
