Welcome again Foreign Policy‘s Status Report, where John is still recovering from the devastating news that Mohamed Salah, aka the King of Egypt, is leaving Liverpool FC at the end of the season. That said, we have more major international developments to cover in this week’s edition.
OK, here’s what’s going on for the day: Trump is considering options for escalating the Iran war, Israel is pushing the war to the Caspian Sea, and Trump is rescheduling his visit to China.
Almost a month after the US war with Israel and Iran, US President Donald Trump seems to be looking for a crossroads as he continues to face the economic and political crisis due to Tehran’s standoff at the Strait of Hormuz. Although Trump has claimed that it is a war he has already wonhe is pushing for a ceasefire, and on Thursday postponed a US strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure until April 6 to allow time for negotiations. But he still continues military pressure on Iran continue the strikes on other targets and the deployment of thousands of additional soldiers in the region.
The number of members of parliament, including Republicanshave emerged from war briefings in the past few days and said that US ground troops could soon be involved in the fighting. They have done it too he lamented that they are not getting enough information from the Trump administration about its plans.
Here’s what we know about the troops being sent, the operations they may be involved in, and why the deployment is linked to Iran’s apparent concerns over US diplomatic communications.
Thousands of soldiers on the way. About 7,000 additional US troops have been ordered to the region in recent days, with nearly 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Air Force Division and about 5,000 Marines.
About 2,200 Marines from 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit-including the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and the amphibious landing dock USS New Orleans– are expected to arrive in the area on Friday as part of this new deployment.
In general, close 50,000 US troops are already participating in Operation Epic Fury—the Trump administration’s nickname for the war.
A menu of possible targets. Kharg Island, where 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports flow, is widely considered to be at the top of the list of expected targets for a US ground operation. It has been reported that Iran has been building defenses in and around Kharg as it prepares for a US ground attack.
Following the strikes that Trump ordered on the small but strategically important island on March 13there is a “real possibility” that Trump will authorize further action against Kharg, Neil Quilliam, an energy and geopolitics expert at Chatham House, told SitRep. “Given that Iran will not surrender and is in regime survival mode, Trump may now feel compelled to seize the island, but that comes with significant risks not only to US forces in the range of missiles, drones and mines, but also the energy market,” Quilliam said.
US officials have reportedly viewed arresting or detaining Kharg as one of several options for delivering “the final blow“For Iran if diplomacy fails.” But Quilliam doubts that Kharg is “the right pressure on the US to find an alternative” in the war. “Iran’s leadership knows that Hormuz is one of its strongest points of leverage over Trump and so it will not make a deal on it. Iran would rather lose Kharg Island and retain the ability to prevent the channel from being closed than enter into negotiations on it,” Quilliam said.
A US attack on Kharg could also lead the Houthis, Iran’s main ally in Yemen, to enter the war and attack ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, another important shipping lane. Group this week indicated that it is ready to join the war if needed.
Fred Fleitz, who served as chief of staff at the National Security Council during the first Trump administration, told SitRep that it would be “a very bad idea for the Houthis to get involved in this war, given the huge arsenal we have in the Arabian Sea.”
Trump could also use ground troops to try to get hold of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, although such an operation would also carry significant risks for any troops involved. Other possible targets for the ground operation include Qeshm Island, where Iran reportedly has a missile storage underground, among other military assets. The Trump administration has also reportedly discussed invading and seizing other strategically important islands for Iran, including Larak and Abu Musa.
Diplomacy or deception? Washington engaged in talks with Tehran at the start of last June’s 12-day war and when Operation Epic Fury began. As a result, Iranian officials are reportedly wary of Washington’s push for peace talks it’s a trickespecially as more US troops and military assets enter the Middle East.
Fleitz said that Trump “always prefers diplomacy” but is “keeping his options open.”
“The president has indicated if the escalation continues, that there will be major strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure,” Fleitz said, but “those are steps that Trump would not want to take.”
Trump name several tech executives and Silicon Valley bigwigs to the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, including Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, AMD CEO Lisa Su, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, Google co-founder Sergey Brin, and venture capitalist Marc Andreessen. Also on the panel is South African-born billionaire investor David Friedberg, who is a co-host All Inside podcast with Trump’s outgoing AI czar, David Sacks. Sacks and Michael Kratsios, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, will co-chair the council.
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
The Caspian Sea blows. Russia has warned against the expansion of Israel’s war with Iran in the Caspian Sea, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. saying on Tuesday that Moscow would view any escalation of the Iranian conflict in the world’s largest inland waterway as “very negative.” Peskov’s remarks come about a week after the Israeli army he said had struck several Iranian targets in the Caspian Sea, including missile ships and a port command post.
Iran and Russia are on both sides of the Caspian Sea and have long used it to transport weapons and other resources between them. Russia’s cooperation with Iran has been bilateral, with Iran’s Shahed drones serving as a useful weapon in Russia’s war against Ukraine, and Russia is reported to assist Iran with the delivery of drones of its type as well as intelligence and technological support.
New Trump China dates. Trump announced in Social Reality post Wednesday that his planned trip to Beijing to visit Chinese President Xi Jinping—scheduled for this weekend but postponed due to the Iran war—will now take place on May 14 and 15. Trump also plans to host Xi in Washington later this year, he added.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian would not confirm the dates when asked exclusively on Thursday saying that the two countries are “in communication” about the visit.
“I think it will be difficult to postpone the visit again,” Kurt Campbell, a former US deputy secretary of state in the Biden administration who now heads the think tank The Asia Group in Washington, DC, told reporters including SitRep on Thursday. “At the same time, I think this betrays the fact that the president believes he will be able to end the Iran crisis quickly,” he added.
US first lady Melania Trump walks with a human-like robot as she arrives for the Global Alliance for a Shared Future Summit in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, March 25. Oliver Contreras/AFP via Getty Images
SitRep sat down with Clara Chappaz, France’s new ambassador for digital affairs and artificial intelligence, who was in Washington this week accompanying French first lady Brigitte Macron to attend US First Lady Melania Trump’s Conference on Promoting a Shared Future for the United Nations that aims to protect children online. The Trump administration has accused European tech regulators of suppressing free speech and censoring opinion. Chappaz said he met with officials from the U.S. government, commerce, and education departments as well as the White House this week, and also attended the Hill and Valley Summit on Tuesday that aims to bring together lawmakers and Big Tech executives.
“There are things we will not agree on, but there are topics we can try and work together,” he said. “The way we define free speech is different from your First Amendment, because historically our two countries have different histories,” he added. “We say in France that freedom stops where the freedom of others begins. In France, you cannot say on the radio something that is racist or hateful, which I think is not the same as in the United States.”
SitRep also exchanged text messages with Lebanese Information Minister Paul Morcos about his government’s efforts to protect the online news space as the war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah escalates. Morcos addressed report that his ministry instructed state media to avoid using the word “opposition” to describe Hezbollah, saying that those entities were “only following the general system and official positions of the government,” citing a March 2 document that deemed Hezbollah’s military activities illegal and called for their immediate ban.
“Today, we are not only facing a military war, but also a media war,” he said. “That’s why we brought together the public and private media to agree on a clear way forward – how to reduce misinformation, fake news, reduce hate speech, and remind everyone of their national responsibility at this difficult time.”
Wednesday, April 1: Iran is celebrating its 47th Republic Day, commemorating the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
US Supreme Court arguments on Trump’s executive order restricting birthright citizenship.
Saturday, April 4: The period of waiver of sanctions for the purchase of Russian oil during the Iran war is ending.
42-Updated scope of US Army enlistment agefrom the 35-year age limit set in 2016. The military had raised the enlistment age to 42 in 2006 when it was struggling to keep enough soldiers to fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“We are negotiating with bombs.”
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the White House on Tuesday, explain US military strategy in Iran.
US Army he said that the operation he helped carry out in Ecuador in early March was aimed at “the distribution of narco-terrorist terrorism.” But according to for a New York Times investigation, what they blew up was an Ecuadorean dairy farm—where farm workers said Ecuadorian soldiers jumped and poured gasoline on several lots before setting them on fire.
