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It is just over eight weeks since the US and Israel started a war with Iran for conflicting and unrelated reasons. Certainly nothing about the conflict – except perhaps its stakes – has been clearer since then, and there is still no end in sight: US-Iranian talks, scheduled to take place in Pakistan over the weekend, collapsed on Saturday. In a social media post, President Donald Trump said of Iran that “Nobody knows who’s in charge, including them. Also, we hold all the cards, they don’t!”
I thought some of you might have questions, so Vox’s senior foreign policy writer, Joshua Keating, is stopping by to field a few reader-submitted questions about the Iran crisis.
Here’s what you wanted to know, and what Josh had to say:
I keep hearing people on the right defend the decision to attack Iran as an important step to prevent the government from getting a nuclear weapon. Is there any truth in that?
Iran has reserves of about 400 kg of highly enriched uranium, which in theory could provide enough material to make 10-11 nuclear weapons. Iran had denied that it wanted to build a bomb, and the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons, but there was no credible civilian use of the level of enrichment it did.
At the same time, it is also possible that instead of building a bomb, Iran believed that staying as a “threshold” of the nuclear situation gave it an opportunity to negotiate with the West and a form of deterrence. This turned out to be a very bad calculation.
As far as we know, Iran still has this material — the “nuclear dust” that Trump keeps talking about — buried underground at one or more of his major enrichment sites. Whether the Iranians could mine the material and make it into a viable weapon before this activity was detected and attacked by the US or Israel is an open question. But now that it has been bombed in the middle of nuclear talks twice in the past year, Iran probably has even more motivation build a nuke than before.
What is the likelihood that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed/mostly closed indefinitely?
It depends on what you mean by “closed” and “indefinitely.” Trump’s extension of the ceasefire last week may suggest that he has little intention of launching military action to open the strait, or simply that he is waiting. more military assets to reach the region.
Either way, both sides clearly have an economic incentive to reopen the strait — though Iran may have a greater incentive to cause enough disruption to its rivals that they won’t think about attacking again in a few months. Experts believe that Iran has planned for several months of economic pressure and reckons that the US has little tolerance for pain.
It is equally difficult to imagine a world in which other countries, especially Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf, tolerate continuing to tax the use of international waterways. But we are in unprecedented territory here. It’s hard to say anything for sure.
Aren’t there any options to bypass the Strait of Hormuz? Why can’t Saudi Arabia or someone come up with a solution?
Actually there is. East-West Pipelinebuilt in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War with exactly this type of situation in mind, it stretches from Saudi Arabia’s eastern oil fields to the port of Yanbu on its western Red Sea coast. It quickly became the most important part of the energy infrastructure on the planet and was targeted several times by Iranian missiles and drones.
The pipeline is now operating at its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, which has been an important means of supporting the world economy, but is not enough to replace the 20 million barrels that normally flow through Hormuz.
The Gulf countries are now considering the number of other pipeline projects, but probably not for a time that will help much in this crisis.
Finally, Hormuz is not like other “chokepoints” in the world economy. The geography of the region’s oil fields and the Persian Gulf means there is no alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
I understand that the war in Iran has depleted America’s stockpile of critical ammunition. How long will it take to rebuild the reservoirs, and how much of a problem is that? (Put a contrast: Aren’t we planning the savings to be used and rebuilt?)
It is a big problem. New York Times it was reported last week that the United States has used more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles in this war, and produces only about 100 a year. We’ve burned about 50 percent of our THAAD missile launchers — about 200 — and we’re only buying about 11 a year. This has led to the diversion of these much needed systems from Europe and East Asia.
This would not be a good time for the United States to enter another major war, especially with a peer enemy like China. But how big the problem is depends on how long this war lasts and how many targets America still wants to hit. It is definitely a good time to be in the missile business. Pentagon wants to invest another 30 billion dollars in useful weapons, including interceptors.
I am concerned about how Iran might retaliate against the US through cyber warfare. Is there any evidence that their ability to do so has been affected by US/Israeli attacks?
Iran doesn’t seem capable of launching the kind of massive cyberattacks that could disrupt the daily lives of Americans, but attacks by pro-Iranian “hacktivist” groups have been on the rise, with targets included. medical device manufacturer Stryker, of Bluesky social networkand Los Angeles Metro. These attacks are a concern, but not to the extent of the type of damage feared ongoing Chinese hacking campaigns like Volt Hurricane and Salt Hurricane.
