Welcome to Foreign Policy‘s Southeast Asia Brief.
It’s been a very busy week in the area. We are working on it highlights from the Shangri-La Talksjunta leader of Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing’s first trip abroadand the arrest of a Philippine senator (not the one you’re thinking of).
Hegseth’s Praise of Asia Falls Flat
It’s always nice when a compliment misses the mark. At last week’s Shangri-La talks in Singapore, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tried to woo Asia. motivated snoring in the audience sections, the Door Times information.
“Our partners in Asia have long understood that the basis of lasting cooperation is not based on true values, but on the complete balance of national interests,” Hegseth. he announced at a major international meeting of the security establishment. “When our interests align, we act together with a focused resolution. When our interests differ, we adjust practically without drama or morals. I think Western Europe can take note.”
Along with the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a bastion of believers in the endless international summit and international law.
Hegseth saying, “We don’t need more conferences. We need more fighting power,” is not encouraging to many small and medium-sized states in the region.
Key words of Shangri-La speech and Vietnamese President To Lam (see next section) stood in direct conflict with Hegseth. The late argument was also questionable.
The U.S. arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which Hegseth boasted at the beginning of his speech, was a trigger near-universal judgment and international law applications across Southeast Asia. The US is attacking Iran too it caused a stir in the publicwhich has only grown since the war negatively affects the local economy.
At the same time, NATO is important for Europe partners very often more equality about the actions of the United States in Venezuela and Iran.
Hegseth singling out various countries as allies and good allies (Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam) is also likely to displease, rather than reassure, many.
His definition of a good partner involves moving towards spending 3.5 percent of GDP on defense and/or doing more on regional security. Spending 3.5 percent is a high bar that few will want to meet, except maybe Singapore. And in a region where great power intervention is viewed with caution, few will be eager to further interfere with American security. (Remember fear which greeted Indonesia’s proposals to the United States regarding airspace access.)
The Philippines has used less than 2 percent of GDP on defense for nearly 30 years. In 2024, its spending was 1.3 percent. This is consistently below France and, until recently, close to Germany—until Germany committed itself to greater defense spending. Many other Southeast Asian nations have similar records.
Some now anxiety that failure to meet these criteria could mean worse treatment from the US in the trade arena.
And like Hunter Marston he said outside, Hegseth’s light line on China at the conference stands in tension with his calls for countries in the region to strengthen security: “Washington is fueling an arms race at a time when doubts about its commitment to the region continue to grow.”
One final note: It was strange to see Thailand, a treaty partner like the Philippines, bracketed in the “partners” section of the speech.
What we’re watching: The Shangri-La version
China’s warning of Japan. It turns out that the United States is not the only power that failed to convince others in Shangri-La. China had its own message at the talks: Beware of “military” from Japan.
General Meng Xiangqing, head of the Chinese delegation, General Meng Xiangqing, said: he said about Japan.
Like Japan increases its security role in the region, China hopes to use the shared suffering of the occupation by Japan during World War II to prevent Southeast Asia. Reporting on Chinese President Xi Jinping explosion about the issue when he met with US President Donald Trump in May, he suggests that China has that meaning.
Yet official historical records, which are important because those who lived in battle die, are different in China and Southeast Asia. For China, the struggle against the Japanese invasion has been to be raised as the birth of a modern nation. In Southeast Asia, the significance of the Japanese invasion is often greater complexity: particularly cruel to overseas Chinese communities but also to proclaim independence.
Great nationalist figures such as Sukarno in Indonesia and Aung San in Myanmar cooperatedhoping to seize independence as the colonial empires of Europe fell. The struggle to define the state was often post-war against the Dutch in Indonesia, France and then the United States in Vietnam, and the Chinese communists in Malaysia.
two countries – Philippines and Singapore-focusing on work as a period of suffering to create a nation. But both now have strong ties to Japan, with the former embracing Japan as a key security partner.
Resentments against Japan persisted in some parts of the 20th century, but Japan has worked hard to resolve them. Opinion polls in Southeast Asia show that Japan is the leading country in the region to be trusted partner.
Thus, when the Japanese Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi pushed behind, he had a strong hand. He cast Japan as a security partner for the region, an important development that I will discuss in future editions of the Southeast Asia Brief. While few will probably go as far as the Philippines to embrace Japan, not many will be swayed by China’s warning.
With the diplomatic push of Lam. The President of Vietnam delivered the speech address at Shangri-La Talk. This was the highlight of a two-week diplomatic trip that took him to Bangkok, Manila, and Singapore.
The speech, in which To Lam discovered three tragedies, stood in stark contrast to Hegseth’s vision where power, not morality, is important.
Lam first identified the “crisis of international order,” where “the fundamental principles of international law are interpreted selectively, applied inconsistently, or under the logic where it can do justice.” His second, “the crisis of development models,” was also of interest to anyone interested in his economic plans for Vietnam.
The third was a “strategic credibility crisis.” The solution he identified was to “manage differences within a rule-based system.” Lam said that new disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence risk increasing the conflict.
Lam’s visit to Singapore also coincided with ad more cooperation in industry and technology. His visits to Bangkok and Manila witnessed the improvement of diplomatic relations and agreements on various issues, including technology and security.
A Hindu member of the Tengger community throws a chicken into the crater of Mount Bromo as part of the Yadnya Kasada festival near Probolinggo, Indonesia, June 1.June Kriswanto/AFP via Getty Images
Yadnya Kasada is a festival performed by the Tenggerese people who live in the East Java province of Indonesia. Local legend holds that, long ago, a childless king and queen were given 24 children by the mountain gods on the condition that they throw the 25th into a mountain hole as a sacrifice. Today, people pluck goats, chickens, and vegetables—as others stand with nets to try to catch the offerings.
What Else We’re Watching This Week
Leader of the Junta in India. Myanmar government leader Min Aung Hlaing visited India, his first trip abroad since being “elected” as president, from May 30 to June 3.
Many had expected Min Aung Hlaing’s first trip to China, which has emerged as the main supporter of the military government. But India offers an opportunity to try to balance the past and has taken a pragmatic approach to engaging with the junta.
The first Min Aung Hlaing stop he was in Bodh Gaya, where it is believed that the Buddha attained enlightenment. This was followed for meetings and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, President Droupadi Murmu, and Foreign Minister Vikram Misri.
Together statement after the tour includes a few interesting nuggets.
The first was an agreement about “the importance of preventing the misuse of the free zone for activities that endanger their security interests.” In short, India wants Myanmar to deal with the Indian rebel groups operating in the Myanmar border and vice versa.
The second was the discussion of the Kaladan project—a highway that should connect northeast India with Myanmar and Thailand. The project has been stalled since Myanmar’s revolution in 2021 and the civil war that followed.
The third was talks on strengthening economic ties, including establishing a rupiah-kyat settlement mechanism.
Not everything is rosy, though. Even as the journey continues, the Indian security forces and the Myanmar army exchange fires in low-level border skirmishes.
A senator is arrested for corruption. On Monday, Senator Jinggoy Estrada surrender himself to the police and was arrested on suspicion of robbery. He is now the highest-ranking elected official in the Philippines to be arrested in connection with last year’s flood infrastructure scandal.
This is related to the intensifying conflict between pro- and anti-Duterte factions for control of the Senate ahead of the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.
Theoretically, the group supporting Duterte has 13 votes against his opponent’s 11. But, among the former camp, Estrada has now been arrested by Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa. he is on the run from the International Criminal Court after the shootout in the Senate. Plus, Senator Robinhood Padilla is down investigation for allegedly helping Bato escape.
The anti-Duterte camp is also trying prevent measures that would allow senators to attend and vote remotely. So, no casting your vote from a secret safe house or jail cell right now.
All this is not enough to ensure that Duterte is impeached. For that, 16 votes are needed.
Thailand’s opposition leader is released. Thailand’s top politician Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit was to be released of lese majesté and cybercrime charges last week.
The businessman-turned-politician founded the liberal Future Forward Party in 2018 to challenge Thailand’s conservative establishment. Juangroongruangkit was later plagued by frequent legal issues, which many saw as politically motivated.
In 2019, when his party came third, he was disqualification from sitting as a member of parliament on the grounds that he had shares in a news company when he registered to run.
In 2021, he was the suspect of lese majesté and cybercrime over the information in the live stream, where he said that the government unfairly favored a company owned by the king of Thailand in the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines.
Accusations of insulting the monarchy are a common charge against opposition figures and can carry heavy sentences.
Despite the banning of the Future Forward Party and its successor, the movement continues today in the People’s Party, which leads the opposition.
