Yyou can be forgiven for ignoring recent political events in Iowa. The state, once a hotbed of unpredictability, has recently elected and re-elected Republicans.
In last night’s primary, though, the Iowa Democratic Party nominated the kind of candidates that the national party has failed to find. Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist and red zone record holder, is the party’s nominee for an open US Senate seat. And Rob Sand, the unopposed state auditor, is officially running for governor. Which means national Democrats and Republicans are now competing in a development that, until this week, had registered little more than a quiet observation in typical farm-country broadcast English: Iowa is competitive again.
Let’s start with Turek, whose primary, in the end, wasn’t much closer: He beat Zach Wahls, a 34-year-old Democratic state assemblyman, by more than 25 points. This is not because Turek is better known or more popular. It is because he was identified by Iowa Democrats as the most electable. And the chosen attitude is everything for Iowa Democrats right now, they sense victory like sharks smell blood in the water.
Turek was the Senate candidate Iowa Republicans didn’t want, which is exactly why Democrats should have him. Turek describes himself as “a poor, disabled kid from Council Bluffs,” a red part of the state. He has previously run against and defeated Republicans in a House district that also supports Trump. She also has an interesting story: The 47-year-old was born with spina bifida, caused by her father’s exposure to Agent Orange during the Vietnam War, and has said she underwent 21 surgeries as a child. Before entering politics, Turek was a wheelchair athlete, played in four Paralympics, and worked for a mobility technology company. During a visit to Iowa in March, I watched as he dragged his chair up hills and stairs to introduce himself to the people of Iowa. “There’s something compelling about a man in a wheelchair going up the stairs,” Kurt Meyer, a Democratic state activist, told me. “It’s a great visual response when you see someone who is determined by a dog.”
The money helped: Although Turek has not served in the military, VoteVets, an organization that supports veterans, poured several million dollars into his campaign. Given the group’s alignment with Senate Democrats, Wahls tried to frame Turek as an establishment type backed by Chuck Schumer. Among the primary voters, this argument seemed to be very small. Turek has a history of winning, one prominent Iowa Democrat told me last month—”and he’s winning tough, tough places.”
Democrats will have to hope so. In November, Turek will face off against Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former TV news anchor who is likely to be Iowa’s most popular Republican on the ballot. Hinson, who received Trump’s early endorsement, once promised to be Trump’s “great partner” in the Senate, a promise that will continue to appear in Democratic ads. But Hinson isn’t registering as a MAGA or the exact same as many other Trump-endorsed candidates, and Republicans are hoping his presence at the top of the ticket will help pull his colleagues on the ballot.
Ulike turkish, Rob Sand has blocked the Democratic Party nomination for some time, though he generally seems to hate the label. The 43-year-old former prosecutor has positioned himself as a public servant who has been disappointed by both sides, an independent person who is thus entitled. D next to his name. His strategy for winning the state depends on the influence and good old-fashioned Iowan attitude—if such a thing still exists.
But now, in an unexpected situation, Sand will face an opponent that no one really expected. The GOP front-runner, Rep. Randy Feenstra, had been endorsed by Trump but was sidelined on Election Day by Zach Lahn, a conservative activist and private school co-founder whose candidacy has gained popularity recently. Lahn won, strategists told me, because he took advantage of the fact that Feenstra wasn’t showing up: “He had name recognition, a ruby-red district in his hands, and a lot of money, but the campaign for some reason chose to keep him under wraps,” David Oman, a Republican state strategist, told me.
Feenstra may be the most welcome challenger to Sand, given how little excitement he has generated among the GOP base. Lahn seems to energize them: He is the preferred candidate of the “Make America Healthy Again” movement and has promised to “take on big business” including Big Pharma.
But Lahn has his own weaknesses. The most obvious thing is that the “Iowa First” candidate, who was born and attended high school in that state, spent many years living in Kansas and has said he only returned to Iowa in 2023; he still maintains a Kansas home and flies there frequently. Lahn is also a conservative culture hero whose announcements about opposing “Marxist ideology” and defending “Western traditions” may have helped him win the favor of former Rep. Steve King, who was ousted by Feenstra in 2020 after years of racist remarks. But the biggest problem for Lahn, who vowed last night in his victory speech to fight the “establishment” at all times, is that in Iowa Republicans. it is to be established.
Iowa has been a red state for a while. And basic math, in politics as in life, often serves as a big dream breaker. So it is for Democrats in Iowa, who are outnumbered by registered Republican voters by a margin of nearly 200,000.
But Republicans are up against their own unfortunate circumstances: Gas prices are high. So is the cost of fertilizer. Trump’s war with Iran is not popular, and neither is he. When you add Turek and Sand to the mix, things start to look a lot sunnier for the Democrats. The Cook Political Report has recently been evaluated both theirs racethey see Republicans only slightly favored to hold onto their Senate seat, and the gubernatorial race a toss-up. Three of the four Iowa House races are also up for grabs. “We’re going to see two very colorful and interesting general election campaigns—and maybe three good House races,” Oman, the GOP strategist, told me. “It’s going to be a red-letter political year in Iowa.” He paused, then added, “Maybe I shouldn’t say red.”
Iowa will now join Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska on the list of states that Democrats are desperate to flip and Republicans will have to scramble to protect to keep their Senate majority. Campaign ads will clog the airwaves. Foreign money will flood the area. The national Democratic Party was prepared to invest hundreds of millions in support of James Talarico in Texas may even reconsider. Why not use a fraction of that amount for better results?
Going forward, not much is certain except for this: We’re about to hear a lot more about Iowa.
