Welcome to Foreign Policy‘s South Asia Brief.
Important this week: Serenity sets in Border of Afghanistan and Pakistan after several months of violence, Bangladesh records 1,300 new cases in a a serious outbreak of measlesand mockery of India Cockroach Janta Party plans to hold its first demonstration.
Calm Before the Storm?
A calm situation has prevailed on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan, following great violence in recent months from both sides. The fighting stems from Pakistan’s claims that the government is harboring Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants who are carrying out attacks in Pakistan.
A lull in violence could raise hopes that the border conflict is nearing an end. This week, Pakistan Express Tribune information that the Supreme Leader of the Taliban Hibatullah Akhundzada had given a warning to the TTP that the Taliban would cut off its support if the group did not stop its attacks in Pakistan.
However, the conflict is not over – and it could easily boil over again. Akhundzada’s reported warning will not please Pakistani officials, who have long argued that the Taliban do not want to agree to verification methods that prove the group is in fact blocking the TTP. Islamabad will dismiss the remarks as empty gestures.
Another move by the Taliban could increase tensions. Last week, Afghanistan signature military cooperation agreement with Russia.
Little information was made public about the plan, however according to Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan, is mainly concerned with the repair of Russian-made equipment. Pakistan, however, will be concerned that the Taliban will use the agreement with Russia to strengthen their ability to inflict more damage in future conflicts.
More broadly, the Taliban have few incentives to fulfill the basic needs of Pakistan. The group is closely allied with the TTP, and has a record of not turning on its allies—including al Qaeda when threatened by US intervention. The Taliban may also face risks if they fight back, from internal insurgency to TTP members joining Islamic State-Khorasan.
This helps explain why multiple rounds of internationally mediated talks have resulted in a ceasefire but no official commitment from the Taliban to stop the TTP. This includes more the latest round in April, brokered by China, which has strong leverage against the Taliban because of its investment capital.
So, why has border violence decreased?
The Iran war is probably the main reason. Pakistan, the main mediator in the conflict, wants to avoid a new provocation on its border with Afghanistan at a critical time in the US-Iran talks. Given that Afghanistan, like Pakistan, shares a border with Iran, the Taliban also want to avoid perpetuating one conflict while dealing with the consequences of another.
But the stability is likely to be short-lived. Pakistan, which has assumed a major diplomatic role due to its mediation on Iran, is unlikely to receive a major international push if it resumes strikes against Afghanistan. The Taliban will be ready to retaliate. (The United States and European Union have expressed support for Pakistan’s right to self-defense.)
Pakistan may have been the protectorate of the Taliban during the US-led war in Afghanistan, but tensions are now high. Mutual trust is plagued by longstanding disagreements, such as Afghanistan’s refusal to officially recognize their shared border.
Ultimately, the vicious circle may continue: New violence will lead to more international mediation talks, which prompt both sides to recommit to a ceasefire. But without an agreement that will address the drivers of the violence, fighting will resume once again.
What we’re after
Measles outbreak in Bangladesh. At the end of the week, Bangladesh be counted more than 1,300 new measles cases, bringing the total to nearly 71,000 since the outbreak began in March. There have been 585 deaths. Most of those beaten have been children, and four cases out of five among those under 5. (Children have also contributed to many deaths.)
Public health professionals wrongful The interim government that led Bangladesh from August 2024 to February failed to maintain a robust vaccination campaign managed by the previous administration. UNICEF’s representative in Bangladesh, Rana Flowers, told reporters last month that she had he warned interim government officials about his concerns “at least 10 times.”
The new government led by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman launched a campaign in April to vaccinate 20 million children, but so far only the first one Two required doses are given.
Indian movement to hold first protest. Ridiculous Cockroach Janta Partyan online movement that has recently affected Indian social media plans make his first protest offline. The leader of the movement, Abhijeet Dipke, recently Graduate of Boston University, he announced protest demanding the resignation of India’s education minister.
Dipke did not indicate when the protest would be, but the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) he said that he will return to India on Saturday. The movement has tapped into anger among India’s youth about persistent unemployment, and has linked its complaints about education policy to the unemployment problem.
Despite its millions of online supporters, the movement is likely to have little political impact. That’s because the regime of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains very popular in India—unlike Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, where popular movements have ousted governments in recent years.
That said, New Delhi is not completely ignoring or dismissing the CJP as irrelevant: It is. is blocked X account of CJP and has the suspect a cynical party trying to gain favor from Pakistanis.
Kallas’ gentle warning. The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, he visited Islamabad on Monday for the eighth round of the EU-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue. By most accounts, the tour went well for Pakistan, and promise strengthening cooperation in various fields, from digital infrastructure to climate resilience. Callas too to be praised Pakistan for its role as Iran’s mediator.
However, Kallas had a strong fondness for Pakistan when discussing its trade relationship with the EU, which he said receives more Pakistan exports more than the US and China combined.
Kallas said that for Pakistan to continue to have preferential access to EU markets, it will need “show visible progress“about good governance, environmental protection, work and human rights.” For a country that is currently in the international spotlight, these views can be surprising.
Under the Radar
Earlier this year, three flamingos he died in Mannar, a wetland area in northern Sri Lanka, after hitting power lines. The disaster has fueled debate about the risks to wildlife posed by developing energy infrastructure—and development more broadly—in Sri Lanka.
The concern isn’t just about wildlife conservation—it’s also about economics. Flamingo is a major tourist attraction, with hotels in the area experiencing a significant increase in occupancy once the migration systems bring the birds there each year.
As it turns out, flamingos have had a tough time in Mannar for some time.
Irrigation development in the area in the 1980s and 1990s led to ecological changes, including a decrease in freshwater salinity, which he drove flamingos run. Recently, in 2022, researchers began to identify that photographers using drones to capture the flamingos flocking to Mannar were scaring them.
Most Read FP This Week
Voices of the Regions
In Voices of South Asia, commentator Ladhu R. Choudharywriting about India’s new document outlining the future of the military, he argues that “it can be used as an effective means of a new military-political direction and reform rather than a statement of guiding principles (about) the thinking of the Indian leadership.”
In Kathmandu Postthe teacher Usha Pokharel telephone on officials to build a library on a large empty plot of land in Kathmandu. “We would send a clear signal to the next generation,” he writes. “Your intelligence is important, your ability to think critically is an absolute priority, and your literacy is the shield you will use in a twisted world.”
A Daily Star editorial he blames the increase in mass shootings in Bangladesh: “Civil and moral education that teaches young people to respect the laws and regulations of the country and distinguish between right and wrong must be necessary,” it says. “Incidents of mob violence should not even exist, let alone be common in a functioning democracy.”
