As with everything involving California governance, figuring out the state’s election results can turn into a big, out-of-control mess. That is, Tuesday’s primary—especially the free-for-all campaign for governor to succeed Gavin Newsom—remains too muddled to be called, with millions of uncounted top votes still uncounted.
At the very least, though, we can talk about the initial, let’s call it, competition. California elections are run through a “runoff run” system, where the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to November. As of today, Trump-endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, a British transplant and former Fox News host, is leading the polls. Two Democrats — former California attorney general and Joe Biden Cabinet secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer — currently sit in second and third place, respectively. And there’s still a chance both can come from behind to squeeze Hilton.
Democrats seem scared “Blue Armageddon” an environment where their crowded field of middle-of-the-road candidates wiped out, with two middle-of-the-road Republicans (Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco) making it to the bottom two. “Bullet dodged” seems to be considered a pick among Democrats. If Becerra or Steyer decide to face Hilton, they are clearly favored to win, given the state’s heavily Democratic makeup and what appears to be a very Democratic-friendly electoral landscape across the country.
Still, even if Team Blue wins in the end, the California gubernatorial race has been anathema to Democrats from the start—and in ways that reflect the ongoing dysfunction that has become a feature of the party in recent years. At worst, California in 2026 could show the biggest and worst performance from the party in 2028.
For starters, Democrats won’t have Donald Trump to save them in the future, as he seems to be doing this year. The president’s erratic behavior, confused policies, cartoonish abuse, and push to undermine the GOP have been the best asset Democrats have had since the end of 2024 — rather than their own popularity. For all the hand-wringing, blame-shifting and “postmortem” reports that followed their 2024 election disaster, the Democratic Party remains a deeply fractured brand, lacking in ideological coherence, unifying figures, and a compelling message beyond “Billionaires are bad” and “Trump is bad.”
It’s also worth pointing out that Trump could undermine his own party in the California gubernatorial race by endorsing Hilton. After Trump provided his “COMPLETE & TOTAL ENDORSEMENT” of Hilton in April, Bianco’s ranking in the polls began to decline. As of today, he is running for a distant fourth place in the votes counted so far.
Otherwise, the Democrats’ performance in the campaign has drawn a lot of controversy. For starters, none of the candidates that Democratic voters could commit to — Kamala Harris, Sen. Alex Padilla — chose to run. Those who did — including former House members Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell — were deeply flawed, self-destructive, or both, while a large number of other unknowns who have been — including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — went nowhere. One of the discussions, a March conference at the University of Southern California, it was suddenly cancelled because of excluding non-white candidates.
Through it all, Democrats have shown no collective ability to recruit other contenders, best the race, win the field, or even produce a candidate or two that voters are happy with. Steyer was a major contender in the race simply because of his willingness to spend about $200 million of his own money on television and digital advertising. Becerra, meanwhile, is the current leader of the Democratic Party because he is the best-known, least obnoxious member of his party still alive. He is too suffering from pain and he has received review below from some of his former colleagues in the Biden administration. And while he boasts a deep and varied resume, little of Becerra’s background suggests he’s ready to lead the nation’s largest, most complex and unpredictable state.
The added downside, according to Newsom’s experience, is that Trump will target California and its next governor with all kinds of harassment and incitement. Newsom, it turned out, had the instincts and charisma to be a suitable foil for Trump and a defender of California’s left-wing ideals. Becerra? Or, for that matter, the great avenger of liberalism Steyer the Barbarian?
Because this is California—and Hilton is not Ronald Reagan—Becerra (or perhaps Steyer) seems like a good bet to extend the Democratic dynasty in Sacramento. The state has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger won his second term, two decades ago.
Yet the race for the White House in 2028 will be very forgiving for Democrats. It will be refreshing to have new candidates in the field, no Bidens or Clintons on the ballot, and debates about ideas without “Trump is bad” exclamations overshadowing everything else. But if, at this point, California’s gubernatorial race teaches any lesson to Democrats, it’s that it’s hard to run an open primary without strong leaders, a strong party structure, or agreed-upon rules to keep things straight.
By 2028, Democrats (and Republicans) will have another free-for-all on their hands, and with much more stock. God willing, the candidate field will be even more interesting than it was in the California primary. Fortunately, it is over, or will be eventually.
