When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed his country’s air force to attack Beirut on June 1, the risk that Iran could revise its threat of retaliation was probably welcome. Netanyahu has made it clear that he believes the US and Israeli attack on Iran was stopped before it achieved its goals. He fears that renewed talks between Washington and Tehran will leave Iran with its ballistic missile arsenal and its allies, along with tens of billions of dollars in unfrozen funds to pay for it all. Pushing Tehran to restart the war would stall negotiations and, Netanyahu can only hope, lead to a change of government this time.
But Netanyahu is motivated by more than just strategic considerations. Israel will hold elections before October 27 this year and, although it may seem surprising, another round of fighting with Iran could improve its electoral prospects. Soon opinion polls show Netanyahu’s religious right-wing coalition capturing no more than 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset and possibly fewer.
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed his country’s air force to attack Beirut on June 1, the risk that Iran could revise its threat of retaliation was probably welcome. Netanyahu has made it clear that he believes the US and Israeli attack on Iran was stopped before it achieved its goals. He fears that renewed talks between Washington and Tehran will leave Iran with its ballistic missile arsenal and its allies, along with tens of billions of dollars in unfrozen funds to pay for it all. Pushing Tehran to restart the war would stall negotiations and, Netanyahu can only hope, lead to a change of government this time.
But Netanyahu is motivated by more than just strategic considerations. Israel will hold elections before October 27 this year and, although it may seem surprising, another round of fighting with Iran could improve its electoral prospects. Soon opinion polls show Netanyahu’s religious right-wing coalition capturing no more than 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset and possibly fewer.
The opposition is also projected to fail to reach a majority in parliament (assuming it rejects the Arab-dominated parties to stay in the coalition with them), but the momentum works in its favor. Voters in Israel’s northern region, a stronghold of Netanyahu’s Likud party, are defect angry at their inability to eradicate the Hezbollah threat to their communities.
That Israelis still want more war may seem counterintuitive. Israel has been at war almost continuously since the attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023. More than 2,000 Israelis, including soldiers and civilians, have been killed. The country has been attacked at different times by drones and missiles from Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iran (even a few from Iraqi militias in Iraq). The increased tax burden on savings, which includes such as nine weeks year, has been insufferable. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s fiber-optic guided drones have been picking off Israeli soldiers in standard two to four per week. The Israeli army has no protection against them.
But anyone who thinks that Israelis have had enough of war is underestimating the trauma of October 7. Israelis no longer have faith that the military will be able to protect them from Hamas and Hezbollah fighters over the border and from Iran and the various militia missiles directed at them. The Israeli public is no longer content to see these threats simply controlled and is willing to pay a very high price to get rid of them. Soon opinion poll and the Institute for National Security Studies found that 59 percent of the public believes Israel should escalate the fight against Hezbollah. Another one reading and the Israel Democracy Institute found that 58 percent think ending the war with Iran under current conditions is not in Israel’s security interests.
Netanyahu’s problem is that despite the brutal and destructive wars he has waged in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, none of them have succeeded. complete victory he promised. Many Israelis think Israel’s security situation has deteriorated since October 7, especially against Iran and Lebanon. Neither Netanyahu has been able to erase the stain that the October 7 massacre has left on his image as a strategist and determined defender of Israel’s security. The prime minister may believe, as he has publicly said, that the failure to prevent the Hamas attack was everyone’s fault but his own, but the public does not. Netanyahu now seems to be betting that a victory for Iran or Lebanon could restore his reputation.
In fact, entering the third round of war with Iran is dangerous. The most recent regime left the Iranian regime not only more stable but more confident and in a better position than ever to project power in the region. But the rewards of regime change are still compelling for Netanyahu, especially if the alternative is a bad deal between the United States and Iran. In his thinking, toppling the Islamic Republic will not only eliminate the Iranian missile threat, but also leave Hezbollah without its protector, making it difficult for the group to continue its war with Israel. An indifferent Lebanese government may finally have the opportunity to disarm the organization, allowing Israel to extricate itself from the quagmire of an unwinnable war in Lebanon. In any case, the price in terms of casualties from open work will drop.
For now, however, US President Donald Trump remains Netanyahu’s main obstacle to restarting the war. Trump favors a deal with Tehran, as he made clear to the Israeli leader this week. He he told it of Financial Times recently that he “calls the shots” when it comes to Iran, not Netanyahu. But the Iranians have their say too, and appear willing to risk direct missile attacks, such as those against Israel and Kuwait this past week. If that continues and talks with the US stall, Trump may eventually agree to Netanyahu’s choice to go to war.
That goes a long way to explaining why Netanyahu is at odds with his coalition partners over the election date. The prime minister wants to delay the vote until October 27, while Orthodox parties push for a vote sometime in September, during a major Jewish holiday, when their voters will be at home and perhaps religiously motivated to go to the polls. In the big picture, a few weeks of conflict seems trivial, but Netanyahu needs every extra day he can get in the hope that the problems in Iran and Lebanon can be resolved.
And those are not the only problems he faces. On the political side, Netanyahu is still trying to solve the vexing registration challenge stemming from the rejection of the Orthodox, or Haredimenlisted in the army. They have enjoyed general amnesty since the country’s founding, but the lives lost in Gaza and the heavy burden of asylum obligations have made that privilege no longer acceptable to most Israelis, including much of the coalition’s base. Netanyahu would like to end the problem by pretending to set criteria for preparing the Haredim, but in practice he maintains the amnesty. But he cannot muster the majority of parliamentarians to pass it despite a generally loyal coalition.
Meanwhile, two Orthodox parties have left the government to protest its failure to pass the law. In the streets, Haredim have been showing anger and often violence, vowing to die rather than enlist. This, along with the never-ending burden of reserve obligations from Netanyahu’s wars, has only served to fuel voter anger and make Netanyahu’s job of passing legislation even more difficult.
With all these problems, one may wonder: Why does Netanyahu still want this job? At 76 years old, he has dominated Israeli politics for nearly 30 years, including three of the toughest in the country’s history since the October 7 attacks. He should at least be considering retirement. Indeed, Trump hinted at the possibility this week, ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl said, “I don’t know, he’s had an amazing career. Does he want to continue? Because, you know, he’s a wartime prime minister.” But the prospect of continuing his criminal case without the benefit of being prime minister gives Netanyahu a strong incentive to stay in office. And his the latest tricks of parliamentarians to strengthen the coalition and his popularity and base show that he has no plans to resign.
What may save Netanyahu is the failure of the opposition parties to unite behind a single leader who can appeal to the majority of voters—from the moderate right to the far left. With only a few months left before election day, the main opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot still cannot agree on who should take the position. Netanyahu, a skilled and often ruthless campaigner—will surely benefit from their competition. He faces a big challenge, but he won’t go down without a fight.
