If it feels as if Washington and Tehran have been on the verge of a deal before, that’s because they have. At least 38 times during the months of negotiations to end the war in Iran, President Trump has suggested that a deal could be reached, only for new conflicts, military escalation, or competing narratives to push the finish line further.
Diplomacy has taken place against a backdrop of strikes and protests, threats of greater conflict, and a cease-fire that Trump has described as “a more moderate firefight.” The president has made public claims that were later contradicted by events, sometimes hours later. Even today, after senior administration officials said negotiators have largely finished the text of the memorandum of understanding, the agreement has yet to be signed.
The latest proposed deal would combine nuclear deterrents, economic incentives, and broader regional de-escalation efforts. It would specifically address the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran would end its disruption of shipping and, in exchange, finally gain access to its reserves and reduced restrictions on its oil exports. It will also start the clock on negotiations over the fate of Iran’s nuclear material, and establish a framework under which Iran can receive financial incentives if it meets its obligations. Negotiators have made significant progress in recent weeks and have drafted language that both sides appear willing to accept, although no signing date or location has been finalized. “We’re not at the finish line yet, but we’re very close,” a senior Trump administration official told reporters on condition of anonymity in a phone call this afternoon. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed on X that the two sides are close to an agreement, and his ministry said that many issues have been resolved. Even a temporary agreement could allow Trump to effectively declare war. It will also enable the Iranian government to show that it is standing firm despite weeks of US and Israeli airstrikes.
Nuclear terms remain at the center of negotiations. The idea, the officials told us, is that Iran will make an indefinite commitment not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons (which they had done before the war), and will take steps toward dismantling its nuclear program, including the destruction of sites and the removal of the enriched uranium needed to make weapons. But administration officials acknowledge that promises alone will not be enough, and consistent compliance is far from guaranteed.
“I don’t think the Iranians don’t trust us, and I don’t think the United States trusts the Iranians,” a senior administration official said. “We’re trying to establish a process where we can build that trust, finish this thing, accomplish something meaningful for Iran and the United States. And that’s how we’re starting these negotiations. They’re not based on faith, not based on empty promises, but based on verifiable actions that are good for the United States and good for Iran.”
Officials from countries on the fringes of the conflict told us that they have serious doubts that Iran will abide by the agreement. Others worry that the terms were rushed, because Trump has made it clear he wants to see an end to the conflict that was only intended to last six weeks and is now in its fourth month. The war has disrupted international markets and sent gas prices in the United States soaring while dividing Trump’s MAGA coalition. “The Iranians have a chance to milk,” one Persian Gulf official told us.
Administration officials say the latest developments have strengthened Washington’s negotiating position and claim that Iran’s ability to control the Strait of Hormuz has weakened, which has allowed more oil to pass through the waterway in recent weeks than during the early stages of the conflict. One official also claimed that Iran’s conventional military capabilities and its ability to organize power across the region have been significantly degraded, giving Tehran an incentive to seek economic relief through diplomacy. At the same time, officials acknowledge deep mistrust on both sides and warn that questions of enforcement remain important. Under the proposed system, Iran would receive economic benefits only when it reached certain milestones, and the pressure would remain there if those commitments were not met. But experts doubt that the plan will be implemented in the way that the administration can expect.
“If the Iranians get their way, and I suspect they will, it will be less than meets the eye,” Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told us. Iran’s view “is that they have won,” he said. “The greatest power in the region and the greatest power in the world came together to take them, and they are still standing.” Iran’s opponents, meanwhile, “are at each other’s throats and are looking at the horrors of the fall election. Iranians see a silver lining, and a reason for tolerance,” Alterman added.
The administration views the agreement as part of a regional peace effort involving Iran, Israel, Lebanon and the Arab Gulf states. The Trump administration, the senior official said, is confident that Israel and its Gulf allies can support the system, but the official stressed that no country would be expected to surrender its right to self-defense.
A key feature of the deal is a system of checks and balances that is designed to ensure compliance before Iran receives economic benefits. Administration officials said negotiators spent weeks refining language governing the destruction and disposal of improvised materials, an issue that drew direct attention from Trump and became one of the most discussed parts of the text. Over the past three months, the United States, Iran, Israel, and the wider Persian Gulf region have all been reshaped by war. But none of the combatants can claim to be unaffected by the conflict, which has cost billions of dollars, driven up oil prices, and imposed restrictions on essential goods, such as fertilizer.
At least four times in the past two months, U.S. forces have destroyed Iranian missile launches, drones, and other targets in what it called “defensive strikes,” a description that underscores what military capabilities Iran still has. Iran has launched numerous attacks against US allies in the Gulf. Just this month, Iran targeted a commercial airport and a US installation inside Kuwait. Previous efforts by arbitrators to bring the two sides together failed, and Trump earlier this week threatened to take control of Kharg Island, though many dismissed his words as bluff. The draft agreement is a sign that neither Washington nor Tehran wants to return to the air and missile campaign. Like many modern wars, this one may ultimately end not with a clear winner but with an agreement that leaves all parties involved exhausted and less than they could have hoped for.
