A compromise agreement between Washington and Tehran could allow both governments to claim victory after a short but destructive war. Oil markets will eventually stabilize, and shipping lanes will reopen. But the biggest losers in this war—the Iranian people—will be forgotten.
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both he promised support for Iranians after thousands of unarmed protesters were brutally killed by the Islamic Republic in January.
But the war that followed weakened Iran’s ability to do more, with the United States and Israel destroy important infrastructure important for developing the lives of tens of millions of Iranians.
The war has exacerbated all the national conflicts that Iranians faced before the war lack of water and food for electricity power outage. It has also led to severe drug shortages, oil shortages, international isolation, psychological traumaand more frequent repression than before.
And now that the guns have settled, the Trump administration appears to be adopting policies that will empower the Iranian government and help it continue its brutal oppression of the Iranian people. US Vice President JD Vance has even has said the possibility of a fund of 300 billion dollars that the government known for corruption, now it is more controlled and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), they can use to “rebuild” the country after the war.
A compromise agreement between the US and Iran may reduce the immediate risk of war and allow both sides to claim victory. But without strict conditions, transparency, and enforcement, sanctions relief and construction exemptions will not reach ordinary Iranians. The money is likely to be channeled to the same IRGC-linked contractors, government institutions, ministries, banks, and embargo-era middlemen who destroyed the country in the first place and created the conditions for war.
The war did not create it Iran’s environmental crisis. But it further weakened the civil systems that keep Iranian society alive: drinking water networks, electricity grids, gas stations, hospitals, and food supply chains.
For example, Israel air raids at Tehran’s oil depots released a dangerous mix of pollutants, including particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and other toxic products. Satellite analysis reported that the fire released about 29,800 tons of sulfur dioxide and that the plume affected an area around the size of Italy.
Come on pollutants don’t just get lost when the smoke comes out. Fine particles and sulfur compounds can travel long distances, while soot and toxic combustion residues can settle in soil and water; polluting agricultural systems; and re-entering the human body through rain, dust, and crops.
The United States also hit critical civilian infrastructure of no military value, including water storage tanks serving 20,000 ordinary Iranians in Hormozgan province.
Every piece of damaged infrastructure has a negative impact. For example, a damaged oil refinery can deplete fuel for water pumps, food transportation, hospital generators, farm machinery, and emergency personnel. Power outages from war-damaged power plants can disrupt the supply of drinking water, refrigeration, communications and medical services. Bombed roads, depots, and logistics networks can delay food, medicine, spare parts, and repairs.
If Iranians were led by a new government that had their interests at heart, there might be hope for real change. But despite Trump statement that a “new regime” has emerged in Iran after the war, the reality on the ground is grim.
The war may have caused the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of other senior government officials and IRGC officials. But the government had it scheduled for beheading of his leadership for decades, especially after seeing the “shock and awe” of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. The regime knew how to quickly consolidate its leadership and continue to fight the war while maintaining a tight grip on the population.
The men who have replaced Khamenei and his deputies—including his son Mojtaba Khamenei -they seem to be no different from their predecessors. They are violent, corrupt, and often fanatical. They may make deals with Washington for survival and profit, but they know that any loosening of their hold on power could lead to their own demise.
The money that Trump will give these men will not benefit the Iranian people, but instead will further enrich a vast network of governance institutions such as Khatam al-Anbiya, the IRGC’s main engineering, construction and contracting arm.
Come on institution they have driven the destruction of Iran’s environment by using public resources to create personal wealth and political power. Dams, inter-basin water transfers, deep wells, and water-intensive industries in dry areas became lucrative projects for contractors and government-affiliated officials. The result has been an aquifer, damaged riversshrinking lakes and wetlands, land degradation, and the collapse of rural life.
In particular, while degrading Iran’s environment, administrative institutions like Khatam al-Anbiya have used the country’s resources to mine. the tunnels and underground halls for nuclear facilities and missile cities.
Khatam al-Anbiya and the foundations of governance, or bonyadthey are also likely to benefit greatly from contracts from governments and possibly even foreign parties from any agreement between the United States and Iran.
The priority of these organizations will be to enrich themselves and rebuild the regime’s military capabilities, not to rebuild Iran’s civilian infrastructure.
The Trump administration can still help the Iranian people by placing real conditions on sanctions relief and construction-related exemptions. Reconstruction contracts should be subject to public disclosure and competitive bidding. IRGC-linked and sanctioned contractors should be excluded or actively monitored, not quietly rehabilitated through subcontracting opportunities. The assessment of environmental damage should be carried out by independent, trusted experts, and the results made public.
Without that protection, “aid” will become just another revenue stream for government survival. The Islamic Republic will emerge from this war more confused, more militarized, and more ready to use violence against people than ever before.
When Washington he says that “help is on the way,” many Iranians will have a follow-up question. Help for whom? For people breathing black rain, waiting for clean water, and bearing the cost of decisions they never made? Or to the government officials, contractors, and institutions that will manage the next river of money coming into the government?
