The dust from the first round of “redistricting wars” — the unusual mid-decade redrawing of congressional maps in search of a partisan edge in the 2026 midterms — has settled, and Republicans have a clear advantage: about 10 parliamentary seatsgive or take. But that clear-cut number hides something else. While the GOP may have scored a short-term victory, it is likely to put obstacles in the way of Donald Trump and his party, in 2026 and beyond.
Trump launched a redistricting war in 2025 and to push Texas lawmakers to redraw the state’s maps creating more likely Republican seats. Since then, seven other Republican states have adopted new maps. On the other side of the ledger, only California successfully redrawn its maps to benefit Democrats (Virginia voters approved the re-barring actionjust so that it is closed by the Supreme Court of the state of Virginia) Democrats also got good news in Utah, where a court decision created a new Democratic seat.
Generally, the voters who have lost are Democrats in red states, who may soon be without representation at the federal level.
Some voters feel disenchanted, too. Take Mike Beltran, who runs a smoke shop in Kissimmee, Florida. The sunny city outside of Orlando is located within Florida’s 9th District, and is home to a large and growing Latino population. Florida Republicans recently redrawn the district to make it more white, rural and Republican, in hopes of unseating Democratic Rep. Darren Soto.
Beltran, who voted for Soto and Trump in 2024, told Vox that he thinks the Republican-led redistricting was “a little messed up.”
“I think they’re trying to reduce the minority vote, especially Hispanics and African Americans,” he said.
Beltran told us he was saddened by the redistricting, but many voters who are now victims of redistricting feel something else – anger. As Jonathan Martin, political bureau chief and senior political writer at Politico, said recently Today, It’s Explained co-host Sean Rameswaram, “I don’t think the juice is worth squeezing for Republicans.”
Martin recently wrote for Politico about how Republican redistricting in the South is fire up Black voters; spoke with Sean about the column, why he thinks voters are more likely to be angry than apathetic, and the “big sleeper” that shapes American politics.
The following is part of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s a lot more in the full podcast, so take a listen Today, It’s Explained wherever you find podcasts, incl Apple Podcasts, Pandoraand Spotify.
You wrote to Politico that all this activity we’re seeing this year to redraw our political maps could have negative consequences. How come?
In the near future, you will fire up more Black voters in a midterm election year in which Black participation is critical for Democrats. Now why would you help the opposition by encouraging them to vote more? It gives (Democrats) a clear partisan issue, which is: (Republicans are trying, basically, to reduce your voice.
Second, from a raw political point of view, when you start cutting the very thin slices of the district, you are in danger of endangering some of your leaders. Just take South Carolina, for example. Republicans supported Trump’s bid to block their state’s House seats, in part because they thought that by voiding Jim Clyburn’s predominantly Black district, they could create more competitive seats in a good frame year for Democrats. Is it worth finishing Clyburn’s career and painting his chair? Because you will run the risk of moving those voters elsewhere. They have to go somewhere, and you may inadvertently create new competitive seats.
So you’re saying, instead of removing one blue district in a red state, you can accidentally create three?
Precisely. And I think that was part of the concern in South Carolina, which is why lawmakers there opposed Trump’s demands. Because again, when the political climate, if you will, will be good for your party – as it is for the Democrats this year – some of these seats that may be temporary will become more competitive if suddenly, the share of African Americans in the district has risen from 17 to 32 percent.
How much are these voters reviving so far? Do we know how much people are aware of this kind of mysterious issue?
Usually when you say “redistribute” in a speech, the audience is asleep before you even finish saying the word, right? These are aspects of the innermost process of weed. That’s starting to change, I think. The question is, has it gotten to the point where it’s so dirty, and this arms race is so out of control, that the average voter says, ‘This is too much, this has gone too far’?
More succinctly for this midterm election: Have Republicans given Democrats a weapon to turn out with Black voters, between Trump’s proposed redistricting and the Supreme Court’s views on voting rights? Can the juice come out for Black this year to levels it usually doesn’t in the midterms? That, to me, is the big question, because then many of these communities are more interesting.
Take Texas, for example. It is a difficult situation for Democrats to win. They haven’t won a Senate race there since ’88. Talarico’s chances of winning that Senate race for Democrats are even better if you’ve got historically Black voters in places like Houston and Dallas.
We spoke to some voters in Florida who were angry about the restrictions. Others had given up. They felt fed up with this political process. When you talk to party leaders, politicians, about what they’re hearing from voters right now – what are they saying?
There is great uncertainty among voters about not only politics, but about many American institutions. We are approaching our 250th birthday with a beautiful electorate. It is surrounded. People do not trust institutions. They don’t think anything is on the scale. They think that they are oppressed, and that privileged and wealthy people are thriving.
Part of that is economic, but not only economic. I think part of this is that there is just a feeling that institutions have been robbed. And I think part of the long tail of the Epstein story is because it confirms some of the conspiracy theories. I think it’s driven, or at least reinforced, by social media, the algorithms they use. And that has resulted in voters who are very fed up.
I saw data that had 17 percent of American voters saying they have confidence in their government. I mean, that’s pretty low. It is difficult to maintain democracy when the voters do not have faith in the government, they do not have faith in any institution.
It feels like the Republicans were scared about this midterm, and that’s what put us in this position in the first place, to have this race to the end by imposing sanctions. Now voters are angry and/or apathetic, which could mean lower-than-usual turnout in midterms, which already historically have a problem with high turnout.
Who prefers that? Do we know? If no one is going to show up, if people are fed up with the disdain and just say, ‘Forget the middle ground, I’m not interested,’ does that help the Republicans or the Democrats?
I think there is a lot of alienation from people who otherwise don’t care about the system or don’t have faith in the system. For educated, curious people – that means the Democratic primary in 2026 – they will show up. They will vote angry.
The question is the apathetic, the unengaged, the ones who don’t follow these things directly – can you bring them back? Is there someone who can bring people back, who can inspire people to vote with joy, vote with hope? We haven’t seen it yet.
