Two years after her ascension to the Democratic presidential nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris is thinking about… running for president again. Not to do it – yet – but to lay the groundwork if he does.
He has done a book tour through the early states. He has met with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and he called pro-Palestinian organizers feel out of the room. And he leads many vote 2028 – in front of California Governor Gavin Newsom, in front of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, in front of the stadium. But he has not yet committed to the prospect of running in 2028 and is not yet focused on the ideological battles of the Democratic party.
It’s an unusual situation: The candidate isn’t clear if he wants to run – and the party doesn’t seem clear if it wants him.
So last week, I spoke with Democratic Party officials, donors, and South Carolina voters for our last session of America, Really to determine if Harris has a path to another presidential run – and if it’s the one he wants.
The Harris camp sees 2024 as a challenge
The case from his inner circle is that the 2024 presidential election against President Donald Trump does not count. For starters, President Joe Biden resigned in July — under pressure from nearly the entire Democratic Party — leaving him with just 107 days to campaign.
And, then, there were numerous assassination attempts against Trump, including one that resulted in the indelible image of the bloodied candidate punching Secret Service agents in the groin. As one Harris successor told me: “I think Jesus Christ would fail in 2024 after an assassination attempt.”
It’s a valid point, but it’s also exactly the point a team makes once it’s decided the loss didn’t affect the candidate. I’m not sure the other party agrees. (Also, he ran for the nomination in 2020 and withdrew in late 2019, before the first primary contest.)
The donor class may be ready to turn the page
I called John Morgan, a major Florida donor who has raised tens of millions for Democrats during the Clinton years. He doesn’t want Harris to run, but, even more, he said he thinks the money won’t be forthcoming and that he and Newsom will be eating the same California checkbooks. He also raised his relationship with the Biden administration. According to Morgan, the entire Biden era needs what he called — and I’m quoting the man — a “Bye Bye Biden” send-off.
Morgan also added that many donors see this, and almost none of them will say it out loud, because “people think his rejection, they can be called racists, and they don’t want that, because they are Democrats,” he said.
No one took his place – and that’s the real story
Here’s one where Harris’ team is sure. No one has yet replaced him with the two groups that hold the Democratic base: Black voters and women. Until now, the guarantee holds. I felt it at the June 10th picnic in North Charleston, where “Yes, he should run” won our little yes-bucket, no-bucket vote. A few other answers we got: “Third time’s the charm.” “We need women.” “It was stolen from him the first time.”
But the full conversation meant more than any top number. There is a generational divide – younger voters are praising his record as a prosecutor and his stance on Gaza, with one telling me “he was locking us up until he needed our vote.” There is a gender divide – the men at the picnic were ready to turn to the “capable white man” before another woman, and the women insisted that the door only needs to be pushed by one more beautiful one.
Underneath almost all of them, one word kept emerging, from yeses and nos alike: clean. People want a clean face. Others want a newer Harris. Some just want someone new.
The Black vote – especially in the South – has been the main unifying force in modern Democratic primaries: the bulwark that stood behind Hillary Clinton in 2016, which saved Joe Biden in South Carolina in 2020, which ultimately made Obama.
Democrats run an orderly primary when the group decides early and moves together. A Black electorate that is fragmented by age, divided by gender, and publicly shopping for a new image isn’t just a headache for Harris; it is a break from decades of how this party has elected its nominee. That’s not the story about Kamala Harris. It’s a story about a party that doesn’t know what it wants — and a 2028 presidential cycle that’s going to be worse than the polls make it seem.
As always, there’s a lot more in the full show, too listen America, Really wherever you find your podcasts or watch them Vox’s YouTube channel.
