Updated ,first published
With five rounds remaining in the 2026 AFL home-and-away season, the run to September officially begins.
Fremantle looks a lock for the top spot, but from there it’s anyone’s guess.
Sydney’s hold on second place has been eclipsed by Hawthorn, Collingwood are pushingwhile the five wild-card contenders have scored big wins – although they all remain in the race.
The introduction of the wildcard round – expanding the number of clubs that can enter the final from eight to 10 – has ensured many teams remain in contention at this stage of the campaign. We look at what awaits your team. Best and worst case scenarios are estimates only.
What we say: Locked and loaded docks are an unstoppable force, The latest force to waver. They now sit three games clear of the table, and are confident of staying there despite, on paper at least, a challenging home run. The Eagles have improved, while the Bulldogs, Melbourne and the Crows are vying for the flag.
Ending the best case: First. Worst case scenario: First.
What we say: We asked last week if the Swans’ apathy was something to think about. The answer to that is yes. There was the loss to the Brisbane Lions, the fade away against Fremantle, and now their first defeat at home this season, against Adelaide. That is three defeats for prime ministerial candidates. Isaac Heeney has dropped from being the No. 1 player in the league to No. 66 since the 14th round. The Giants are waiting this week. Are the Swans falling out of the top-two? We will see.
Ending the best case: Second. Worst case scenario: Five.
What we say: It has completed another clinical victory, this time against Richmond, and is in contention for second place on the ladder as the Swans flounder. Nick Watson continues to produce magic, but co-captain James Sicily needs to use his instincts, as he doesn’t want to blow the fuse when an important game is on the line. The Hawks actually host Essendon this week (no 1983-85 references, please), but the Brisbane Lions and Collingwood await.
Ending the best case: Second. Worst case scenario: Four.
What we say: The Lions have won six in a row, and there is no reason not to think that this run will not continue for at least two weeks. Coach Chris Fagan has not hidden his team’s goal. “Everybody knows the levels and the percentages and that kind of stuff, so why get away with it,” he said. “We’ve definitely used it as motivation over the last two or three weeks. It’s very difficult. We have to stay in the hunt, and we want to get that top four.” The opportunity to play at least two finals at home will make Simba the first place for the three major leagues.
Ending the best case: Second. Worst case scenario: The eighth.
What we say: Last week we said the Ravens were buzzing. Cue the buzz after their emphatic win in Sydney on Friday night, handing the Swans their first home defeat of the season. They have six wins from their last seven games, with Richmond and Essendon among the home runs.
Ending the best case: Second. Worst case scenario: The sixth.
What we say: Coach Steven King says the Devils are far from over, a statement that should worry opponents after winning five of their last six games. We said that their best finish was third – that has been re-rated to second. They will embrace the Friday night lights vs Geelong beaten this weekand appeared to have put himself in a good position to even claim the fourth-best position amid the challenge of returning home.
Finish the best case: Second. Wfinish the first case: The sixth.
What we say: Last week we asked if the Bulldogs were real? We can’t answer that question yet. Yes, it was an impressive win against Gold Coast, but recent defeats against Adelaide and Sydney, and a more lackluster win against the Eagles, continue to gnaw. It will take the Tigers this week, but the Dockers – and a big litmus test – await.
Ending the best case: Four. Worst case scenario: 11.
What we say: That’s five wins in a row for the Magpies, who are in contention for a top-six spot. Is there a better team in the race to fill the selection holes and increase their performance on the field? Now comes the defining month of the season, with giants Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions on the agenda (and West Coast in Perth). You probably need to win at least three to avoid the wildcard round.
Ending the best case: Four. Worst case scenario: 14.
What we say: As we said last week, the Cats have an easier path to a home run, although their growing injury list, particularly to key movers Jeremy Cameron and Max Holmes, could negate this. It’s a toss-up against Melbourne and Collingwood in the next two weeks (both games at the MCG), before the expected win in the final three rounds. Is the wild card the Cats’ best hope?
Ending the best case: Seven. Worst case scenario: Nine.
What we say: The Saints have undoubtedly been the biggest disappointment of the season. A depleted Geelong was there for the taking on Thursday night, and what did the Saints do? They could not move for most of the night. They are not locked to knock on North Melbourne this week, then comes Sydney. Suddenly they’re in a big fight just to make a wild game around. How successful has their offseason recruiting been? Not so much until today.
Ending the best case: 10. Worst case scenario: 14.
What we say: This was quite the shock of the weekend, and a snapshot of where the Giants are at. Internally, they were frustrated by their poor efforts against weaker sides, and that was reinforced against the Raiders. Terrible. They will now be without injured captain Toby Greene. We had the Giants who finished in seventh place. That’s down to 10. Wow.
Ending the best case: 10. Worst case scenario: 14.
What we say: Has the bubble burst at Ikon Park? A seven-game winning streak under interim coach Josh Fraser is slowly receding into memory, as two defeats to the top contenders in September have shown. Where are the Blues?. Still, they remain in wild-card contention. A win against the Suns at Marvel Stadium this weekend is a must.
Ending the best case: Seven. Worst case scenario: 14.
What we say: It is red in Arden St. The Kangaroos had club royalty in the stands on Saturday, but they got off to a good start against the Devils. That’s three losses in a row, their bid for the wild-card round is in jeopardy. Their best finish has been re-rated from eighth to 10th, as they are likely to go home bruised. They need to get the job done against St Kilda this weekend or their campaign is dead.
Ending the best case: 10. Worst case scenario: 14.
What we say: We called the Suns a train wreck last week. Now we’re not even sure they were at the finish line, it is surprise on eight consecutive defeats. Yes, eight in a row, from a team that should be fighting for the pennant. The Blues, being Marvel, are waiting, but we’ll be tipping Fraser’s men to rejoin. The Suns face intense postseason criticism. Wow.
End of the best case: 10. Worst case scenario: 15.
What we say: As we said last week, the Force has a mathematical chance to enter the top 10, but there is little hope they will make it. They put up a good fight against the Dockers, but their home run is tough, the Lions next.
Ending the best case: 14. Worst case scenario: 15.
Not in running
West Coast (4-14)
The Eagles did well to push the Lions in Perth, and have made important strides this season. They would like nothing better than to beat the Dockers this weekend in the derby, but their best chance of another win in the remaining weeks of the season is against the Tigers.
Essendon (2-16)
Hats off to the Strikers. Last week we wrote their campaign was worse. But this was excellent win against the Giants. There could be another one coming, against the Power in round 24.
Richmond (2-16)
Have the Tigers really improved this season? Coach Adem Yze says yes, and continues to be backed by club boss Shane Dunne. The ladder, however, tells the true story. They may still have a chance against the Eagles in round 21.
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Jon Pierik is a sports journalist at The Age. He covers the AFL and has won awards for his cricket and basketball coverage.Connect via X or email address.
