Last week presented a stark contrast in the direction of two of the Trump administration’s most dangerous foreign policy projects. On July 13, President Donald Trump officially announced a return to military operations in Iran, making it clear that the war he had expected it would only last four or five weeks it will stretch past the five month mark and possibly longer. Trump seems to be most disappointed by Iran’s failure agree to his needs reopening the Strait of Hormuz, comparing the country to “a great boxer”: “You think you’ve hit them, then suddenly he comes back and shoots you.”
- After ousting President Nicolás Maduro in January, the United States now controls Venezuela through new President Delcy Rodríguez. On the other hand, after five months of fighting, Iran shows no signs of agreeing to Trump’s demands.
- Trump cited Venezuela as an example of how he would like to control Iran and talked about finding another “Delcy” to run the country, but it should be obvious that it will never work, given the differences between the two countries.
- Trump has talked about trying regime change in other countries, especially Cuba. The question going forward is whether Iran’s experience has changed his views on how easy this would be.
On the far side of the world, however, another country that Trump attacked this term has proven more manageable. Venezuela’s government – now led by former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who took power when Nicolás Maduro was arrested in a US raid in January – he agreed to hold talks with the elected opposition leader and the United States which aimed to “strengthen democracy.”
New York Times reported earlier this week that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the “vice president” of Venezuela, governing the country in his absence from Washington, DC. (“Viceroy” is usually an official who rules a country or colony as a direct representative of the king.) The United States has direct control over the revenue that Venezuela receives from selling its oil abroad, giving Rubio strong control over the country’s budget. The grip is so tight, the Times reports, that Rodriguez is seeking White House approval before appearing on Fox News, to Trump’s delight.
Two different countries in two different parts of the world and two different responses to Trump’s military pressure. But when historians of the future tell how this administration ended up falling into the kind of chaos in the Middle East that he had fought for. promise to avoidthey are likely to give at least a few paragraphs to Venezuela. The easy success of one operation laid the foundation for the still-unfolding disaster of another.
Exporting the example of Venezuela
In a daring dawn attack on January 3, American Special Forces succeeded to arrest Maduro in a matter of hours, with no American soldiers killed. Contrary to critics’ warnings that such a regime would change cause chaos — and in the hope of the Venezuelan opposition that it would lead to democracy — Trump and Rubio succeeded in replacing Maduro with a more humble vice president, who has proven more than happy to let Washington call the shots. Trump now regularly reflects on making Venezuela the 51st state.
The operation was, the Times reported“evidence for the president of the unparalleled power of the US military” and, together with the success of the first round of airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program last June, encouraged him to take further military action.
“What we did in Venezuela, I think, is a good situation,” Trump said in early Marchreferring to the prospect of regime change in Iran. And in one sense it worked; The US was able to remove the head of state within hours of launching military action, while Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike.
“I have to be involved in selection, like Delcy in Venezuela,” Trump saidwhile the Iranian regime was considering Khamenei’s successor.
Trump was not involved. Iran’s assembly of experts elected the son of the former supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, whom Trump dismissed as “unacceptable” and “quick”.
Despite this, Trump continued to insist that the administration change was successfully carried out in Iran and that its new leaders were “more rational.” While the new political system of Iran is the work is still very much in progresshis insistence on maintaining government control and ongoing attacks against US ships and allies in the region have made it clear that he will not take orders from Marco Rubio or anyone else in DC.
Why Iran is not Venezuela
On the surface, there are some striking similarities between Iran and Venezuela: They were once close allies of each other, as were Russia and China. All are oil-dependent powers that support a revolutionary ideology defined in large part by opposition to the United States. Both are known for sponsoring foreign militant groups. Both have a history of contested elections and suppression of opposition protests. Both have large and vocal immigrant communities in the United States. Both have struggling economies and have spent years under US sanctions.
That’s where the similarities end, however. Start with the army: Iran’s joint forces are about three times the size of Venezuela and better equipped, capable of missiles and drones that have spread unrest in the region for months. Iran’s top leaders came of age during the brutal Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and have spent decades in proxy wars with the United States and Israel, whereas Venezuela has not fought an interstate war in modern times. It is to say that Maduro was depending on Cuban workers for his own safety.
Then, there is geography. Thanks to its privileged location on the western side of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran means to retaliate against the US by blocking shipping through the world’s most important energy hub, causing oil prices to rise. Venezuela may have the world’s largest oil reserves, but it has nowhere near the ability to disrupt global energy flows.
Iran was able to attack US allies throughout the Gulf region with its missiles and through the military groups it supports throughout the region. Despite Trump’s misleading claims that Maduro’s government was in direct control gangs in the United States or arms migrationVenezuela did not have the same leverage to deal with it.
There is history too. Even during the nadir of relations with the United States, when Venezuela was under heavy US sanctions and official diplomatic contact was cut off, there was still constant conversation on energy issues and the release of prisoners. The American oil company Chevron continued to operate in the country. Rodriguez himself was a familiar figure to US officials, having participated in negotiations with the Biden and Trump administrations.
And finally, there is ideology. Venezuela’s rulers may still be publicly committed to the “Bolivarian” socialist vision of former leader Hugo Chávez, but, in fact, the regime is operating as “an extreme form of extreme capitalism and some pretext for redistributing oil wind to the poor,” said Chris Sabatini, director of the Latin American program at the Chatham House think tank. Senior civil and military officials were deeply involved in a variety of different businesses valid degrees from the oil industryfrom gold mining to drug trafficking. When push came to shove, they were more interested in preserving their empire than standing for a long-term revolution.
According to some informationdenied by the Venezuelan government, Rodríguez was in direct contact with US officials before Maduro’s arrest, assuring them of his cooperation, which would make the regime change less invasive than a US-facilitated coup. Even Interior Minister Diasdello Cabello, considered the toughest of the Chavistas with the price of America on his head, has been. more fun to play football and the new American colonists.
Iran has ever widespread corruption, toobut the regime is more organized, more disciplined, and more committed to the radical Islamic ideology of the 1979 revolution. Iran’s leaders have long been planning an invasion and he had elaborate succession plans for senior leaders when they were removed. the fact that the US allies of Israel were it is said that he was cultivating Mahmoud AhmadinejadThe former president is best remembered for calling for Israel to be wiped off the map and declaring a a long-term plan to arm Kurdish rebels to carry out a ground invasion, it is an indication that there were no candidates for “Delcy of Iran.”
It should have been clear from the start that a quick and easy operation that would replace Iran’s top leaders and install more cooperative leaders without requiring a dangerous and expensive ground invasion by US troops was never a realistic prospect. It is known that the administration set aside much of it owning Iranian experts before the warbut, in fairness, Trump’s own CIA director dismissed the prospect of Israeli regime change as “old fashioned.”
“President Trump has not taken the time to study the history of Iran-US relations since 1979, or even earlier,” said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute. “If he had studied the relationship, I think he would have taken a different path.” But Trump may be thinking less about what happened in Tehran in 1979 than what happened in Caracas a few weeks ago.
Many scoffed in January when Trump suggested that America would be “running” Venezuela for the foreseeable futurebut that seems to be more or less what is happening now. It is unclear how long this arrangement can last. Dissatisfaction with Rodríguez and Trump is growing up in Venezuelaand many in opposition to accuse the government of using the recent earthquake as an excuse to delay democratic reforms. Venezuelans may come to hold the United States responsible for the failure of the government it controls from afar.
But the initial success of the Venezuelan operation was a vindication for the president who often sees himself as himself run the world with the United States.
Has Trump’s confidence in his ability to sway other countries to comply with his wishes shaken at all by the Iranian experience? He has ever Try it often as “next” on the list of countries he would like to “take over” after Venezuela and Cuba.
In terms of culture and geography, Cuba may look more like Venezuela. But in terms of its political system, it is “more like Iran,” said Sabatini. “It is the most basic of government, upright, disciplined.” Facing a system still deeply committed to its revolutionary ideology that has been largely estranged from the United States for decades, the administration may have no better luck getting the “Cuban Delcy” than getting Iran.
Trump has not removed it yet to take over Cuba in some fashionand Pentagon planners are is reportedly reviewing a range of options for action against the island, though he claimed Rubio wants to “finish (Iran) first.” If that’s true, it may be a long wait until Iran is “finished.”
On the other hand, Trump is talking again take Greenland and posting meme references his desire to conquer Canada. Iran may have proven that Venezuela was the exception, not the rule, when it comes to regime change, but Trump’s ambitions to rule the world don’t seem to be fading away.
