Whatever the real purpose of the US attack on Iran, 11 consecutive days of airstrikes against Iranian infrastructure, ports and military facilities after a brief ceasefire, does nothing to counter the ticking clock that threatens to derail the entire trajectory of the Trump administration: a sharp rise in oil prices and a sharp decline. world oil reserves.
Pentagon he says that the new US airstrikes, if not necessarily preceding a ground invasion, “are intended to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s military capabilities had already been destroyed four months ago, according to the Pentagonbut Iran has shown a surprising ability to continue firing missiles and drones at ships transiting through Hormuz, at critical infrastructure of US allies in the region, and at US military bases in the region.
Whatever the real purpose of the US attack on Iran, 11 consecutive days of airstrikes against Iranian infrastructure, ports and military facilities after a brief ceasefire, does nothing to counter the ticking clock that threatens to derail the entire trajectory of the Trump administration: a sharp rise in oil prices and a sharp decline. world oil reserves.
Pentagon he says that the new US airstrikes, if not necessarily preceding a ground invasion, “are intended to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s military capabilities had already been destroyed four months ago, according to the Pentagonbut Iran has shown a surprising ability to continue firing missiles and drones at ships transiting through Hormuz, at critical infrastructure of US allies in the region, and at US military bases in the region.
“What are we trying to do? Increase the pain for Iran to change its red lines. Wisely, we are trying to destroy their ability to block the Gulf, and separate the Bab el-Mandeb channel, and also show a small foot on the escalation, such as the (Iranian missile) attacks in Tabriz,” said Alan Eyre, a US State Department official who worked at the US State Department.
“A lot of this is the response of (US President) Donald Trump’s reptilian brain,” he said. “He’s like a pianist with one key, and that key is military power,” said Eyre, who is now at the Middle East Institute.
New US attacks are not working. Traffic through Hormuz has returned the lowest levelsand single-digit shipments are now back to normal (and a few of them tankers). Iran has ever targeted three different ships running the gauntlet in the last day or so. Oil analysts now expect the slime will remain choked, possibly for the rest of the year at least, if not longer.
The result is higher oil prices. Benchmark Brent crude is back in the mid-$90s-a-barrel range, after a brief lark around $70 a barrel a few weeks ago when it appeared the US and Iran had reached an accord. United States the price of gasoline they’re back above $4 a gallon just months before the midterm elections. Prices that are very important, such as cost of diesel fuelis worse, causing headaches for industry and agriculture on many continents.
That seems to be the case this spring, when oil prices soared, and the crisis in the Persian Gulf created a state of economic turmoil. The difference this time is that shock absorbers are gone, or nearly so. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is running dangerously low with just over a month’s worth of stock left to cover the missing barrels from the Middle East. The situation is so bad that the US Department of Energy decided last week redefining where the bottom of the barrel is for SPR, conservation-wise, below the levels that oil industry experts think is reasonable.
“It’s a matter of two hours. That is, will Iran capitulate because of the increasing economic pressure before Trump?” Eyre asked. Both sides made gains during the recent ceasefire, with the world briefly enjoying lower oil prices and Iran briefly enjoying sanctions relief and $6 billion. export sales for its previously prohibited cargo. The respite allowed it to empty its storage tanks, raise money, and start anew for another recession.
“The two-hour issue is working in Iran’s favor. We are running out of stock,” Eyre said.
Things could get worse if Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen do well their threats for attack the shipespecially Saudi shipping, in the Red Sea (another maritime hub of the region), which has been a safe haven for a good portion of the crude oil previously seized from the Persian Gulf.
Meanwhile, Iran has not stopped attacking ships through what it sees as unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz, further discouraging shipping lanes from returning to business as usual. Lloyd’s of London estimates that total traffic is down 90 percent year-on-year despite US assurances that controls the clause through Hormuz.
Iran’s military retaliation is not limited to the maritime situation either. Iran’s attacks in the past week have seriously damaged a desalination plant in Kuwait, a US ally that is 90 percent dependent on these plants for its drinking water.
And despite months of “humiliating” Iran’s offensive capabilities, the US military bases in the region remain at the crossroadswhile the latest major attack happened on the Jordanian camp that has American forces.
The few measures that the United States seems to have—more airstrikes, more sanctions, or more tariffs—cannot solve the fundamental problem, which is that Iran has new red lines and new power that it never had before this war began. The expulsion of Trump this week even in the infancy of a retry for a negotiated solution speaks to the conflict.
“This administration doesn’t do diplomacy. They do pain and threats and tariffs. It’s not going to work with Iran,” Eyre said.
This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage. Read more here.
