Welcome again Foreign PolicyStatus Report. It’s been a busy week in the world of national security, and we have a lot to discuss.
Here’s what’s available for the day: the The Trump administrationit adds focus on Cuba, Ukraineof stone staff turnoverand seemingly endless climbing ladder in Iran was.
The Trump administration is stepping up its efforts to portray Cuba as a threat to the United States, raising rumors that the White House is trying to lay the groundwork for military action against the island as its strategy of economic strangulation fails to bring about regime change in Havana.
On Thursday, the State Department announced new sanctions targeting the Cuban regime and its supporters. In a statement Regarding the sanctions, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “the Communist regime of Cuba continues to be a serious threat to the security of the United States and the stability of the world.”
This comes just days after the State Department released a 100-page report portraying Cuba as “the hub of a vast hemispheric network” seeking to overthrow the United States (which our colleague Sam Skove wrote about) The report sought to connect Cuba with left-wing causes and groups in the United States, including the Democratic Socialists of America.
Even if the report agreed that Cuba would be outnumbered by the United States in a conventional conflict and acknowledged the island’s great economic challenges, it warned that Havana “serves as the nexus of a wider alliance against the United States, a platform where the ambitions of Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran meet with radical movements operating within our borders.”
Change of administration. The moves are part of a broader effort that has come to a head since the Trump administration began a deadly oil embargo on Cuba this year, causing nationwide blackouts and exacerbating a deadly humanitarian crisis.
The sanctions are an apparent attempt to topple the Cuban regime and continue decades of US sanctions that have failed to achieve that goal. This is a major priority for Rubio, a Cuban-American who has criticized the government in Havana throughout his political career. But it also aligns with the Trump administration’s goal of dominating the US in the Western Hemisphere, which has led the US military to focus on Latin America in unprecedented ways.
With Rubio and other officials continuing to describe Cuba as a national security threat, the administration has taken various steps to punish and demonize the regime outside of sanctions—including opening up the country. prosecution against former Cuban President Raúl Castro and alleged allies.
Recently there have also been warnings from the administration about the possible presence of Iranian drones in Cuba. US President Donald Trump said in mid-July that the US was investigating the matter and suggested that Washington could act if that was the case.
John wrote about the drone question last week, speaking to Latin American and intelligence experts who believe the administration is trying to create a pretext for US military action against Cuba.
A bigger picture. The experts also said that the Trump administration’s recent actions and statements about Cuba follow the same pattern as the actions taken before the invasion that led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.
“In preparation for the invasion of Venezuela in January, you had the same strategy of throwing everything against the wall to see what was going on. The initial arguments focused on the Tren de Aragua gang, on immigration from Venezuela to the United States, on the mythical Cartel de los Soles, on the return of assets taken from American companies and on the energy sector in the United States, and then it was taken. to justify it with oil,” said Benjamin Gedan, director of the South American program of the Stimson Center.
What is now being seen about Cuba is exactly the same, he added. “There is a focus on Russian and Chinese intelligence gathering capabilities on the island. There is—from the State Department but not the White House—a focus on human rights and democracy issues,” Gedan said.
Fulton Armstrong, former US national intelligence officer for Latin America—the intelligence community’s leading analyst on the matter—also agrees. “This is what we did when we attacked Venezuela and took out Maduro,” he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week continued to shake up the country’s defense leaders, suddenly removing the head of the Ukrainian army General Oleksandr Syrskyi and replacing him with Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi.
The move comes after Zelensky sacked Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s popular defense minister, sparking widespread protests across the country. Fedorov, who previously served as Ukraine’s digital minister, was seen as a tech-savvy leader who would help maintain and develop Ukraine’s edge on the battlefield. He had frequently clashed with the older Syrskyi school.
Fedorov thanked Syrskyi in a post on X where he also congratulated Drapatyi, whose appointment Fedorov described as “a breath of fresh air and a new source of hope” for Ukraine. “It is the voice of change that can no longer be ignored,” he added.
The saga is not over, however – Zelensky has given Fedorov many other positions within the government as an olive branch to stop the ongoing protests, but Fedorov. he told reporters that he will only accept reinstatement to his former post as defense minister.
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Iran is rising (again). At what point does a dispute become mud? The US military’s new strikes against Iranian targets – now more than a week after several attempts at a ceasefire and compromise agreement – are causing people to at least ask the question, like our colleague Keith Johnson. he writes.
While a group of Houthi militias are expanding the war to Bab el-Mandeb which is close to oil prices. hit $100 a barrelthe exit ramp seems increasingly distant, with Trump seems impossible take those it can work.
OpenAI hack. AI doomers, hold on to your hats. OpenAI exposed Tuesday that one of its models escaped the block during a test and hacked Hugging Face, a platform that hosts many fake intelligence models.
OpenAI said it had disabled some of the model’s anti-hacking defenses as part of an internal test of its network capabilities, although the test had to be conducted in a closed environment (or “sandbox”) that did not allow access to the wider network. But the model found a loophole in third-party software that uses OpenAI to maintain the sandbox, using it as a way to avoid gaining access to the Internet and hacking into Hugging Face, whose AI tools. has been discovered and help repair the breach.
While OpenAI deliberately removed the model’s testing guards — which the company has now promised to strengthen further — it found that the model went “to extreme lengths to achieve a narrow testing goal.”
US President Donald Trump salutes as members of the US Army’s transport force move a flag-draped extradition case containing the remains of 19-year-old Army Pvt. Isabella Gonzales at Dover Air Force Base in Dover, Delaware, on July 22.Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
In addition to gaining strength from hosting this year’s NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey scored a powerful victory when Trump spoke it will be ready to sell it F-35 fighter jets—lifting a years-long ban. Although the sale requires parliamentary approval and has not yet taken place, several members of the National Defense Committee of the Turkish parliament spent last week in Washington to meet with their American counterparts and lobby for more cooperation between Turkey and the United States.
SitRep spoke with Hulusi Akar, a former Turkish defense minister who now chairs a parliamentary committee. The interview below, conducted via email, has been edited for length and clarity.
Foreign Policy: How sure are you that Turkey will be allowed to return to the F-35 program? Is there a timeline that you are looking for a resolution to?
Hulusi Akar: We believe that there is now a more constructive environment than in previous years. We hope to maintain this momentum through continued dialogue and practical cooperation. Instead of setting a fake deadline, our priority is to find a fair and mutually beneficial solution as soon as possible. We strongly believe these issues can be addressed through sincere cooperation and based on our common strategic interests rather than our differences.
FP: What message do you have for any White House officials and US lawmakers who are still hesitant about allowing Turkey to buy the F-35?
HA: Turkey has been a reliable partner of NATO for more than 70 years. A strong defense partnership between Turkey and the United States would benefit not only our two countries but also NATO’s overall deterrence and Euro-Atlantic security.
Our message is simple: We must focus on our common security interests and work together against common threats. Dialogue and strategic cooperation always produce better results than barriers and obstacles. Turkey and the United States have greater interests than differences.
Set Your Radar
Friday, July 24: The United Nations Security Council is expected to begin the selection of the next secretary general of the world body.
Trump will attend a rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Dinner after the first one was canceled when a gunman charged at a checkpoint outside the event.
Monday, July 27: Legislative assembly elections are expected to be held in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.
Tuesday, July 28: Keiko Fujimori will be sworn in as president of Peru.
18-the number of American soldiers killed in the Iran war so far, after four additional soldiers have been to be killed in recent Iranian attacks.
“Maybe – they won’t have any effect on me.”
– Trump, when he asked if he thought Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz would affect the US midterm elections.
We didn’t promise any more World Cup content in last week’s newsletter (or did we?), but we felt the need to point out Argentina President Javier Milei’s gaffe as the final step to closure. Argentina lost Sunday’s final game 1-0 against Spain, but Milei apparently forgot to call off what appeared to be a match. post on X announcing a possible “public holiday” to celebrate the team’s “success”. As of this moment, the post remains, so maybe they are still planning to celebrate the second place finish.
